Doubly adaptive biased coin designs with heterogeneous responses

Doubly adaptive biased coin design (DBCD) is an important family of response-adaptive randomization procedures for clinical trials. It uses sequentially updated estimation to skew the allocation probability to favor the treatment that has performed better thus far. An important assumption for the DBCD is the homogeneity assumption for the patient responses. However, this assumption may be violated in many sequential experiments. Here we prove the robustness of the DBCD against certain time trends in patient responses. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the design are obtained under some widely satisfied conditions. Also, we propose a general weighted likelihood method to reduce the bias caused by the heterogeneity in the inference after a trial. Some numerical studies are also presented to illustrate the finite sample properties of DBCD.     

大学图书馆Web站点导航调研与设计

大学图书馆Web站点导航是充分利用网站资源、正确引导用户为其提供有效信息的最佳工具,是快速查找站内外信息的蜜钥。论文采用网上调查分析与综合的方法,从大学图书馆Web站点四种导航方式入手,对国内外10所不同层次大学图书馆Web站点导航实践进行分析,发现国内大学图书馆Web站点导航存在专业术语不规范、导航元素不齐备、分类存在交迭性、导航菜单布局设计、位置设计不合理等问题,最后针对导航的深度和广度、导航菜单的布局设计等方面提出可操作性的建议。     

Understanding and Using Mediators and Moderators

Mediation and moderation are two theories for refining and understanding a causal relationship. Empirical investigation of mediators and moderators requires an integrated research design rather than the data analyses driven approach often seen in the literature. This paper described the conceptual foundation, research design, data analysis, as well as inferences involved in a mediation and/or moderation investigation in both experimental and non-experimental (i.e., correlational) contexts. The essential distinctions between the investigation of mediators and moderators were summarized and juxtaposed in an example of a causal relationship between test difficulty and test anxiety. In addition, the more elaborate models, moderated mediation and mediated moderation, the use of structural equation models, and the problems with model misspecification were discussed conceptually.

农民工社会养老保险局部推进制度设计研究

建立农民工社会保障将促进我国经济和社会协调互动发展。在分析影响农民工社会养老保险各因素的基础上,设计了符合当前我国农民工社会养老保险局部推进战略的制度模式。该模式建立了自动对农民工分层分类的机制,充分考虑了我国城镇职工基本养老保险的未来改革,在保证政府承担有限责任的基础上保护了农民工的权益并平衡了企业利益。     

基层田径运动会计算机管理系统的实现

本文对基于Windows平台的运动会管理信息系统的开发方法进行讨论,并给出一个开发实例进行具体说明.     

Gender differences in labour market integration trajectories of recently arrived migrants in the Netherlands

This study investigates gender differences in recently arrived migrants’ labour market activity and occupational status both shortly after arrival and with increasing length of stay. We examine the role of education, household composition and traditional gender role values by estimating multi-group multilevel models based on three waves of the New Immigrants to the Netherlands Survey. In line with findings regarding gender gaps in labour market behaviour, recent female migrants are less active on labour market than their male counterparts, and we observe a clear motherhood penalty and fatherhood premium on the number of hours worked. Men and women show only marginal differences in their occupational statuses. Changes over time do not differ between men and women, indicating persistent gender inequality in labour market attainment. Moreover, interesting differences between the nationalities were found. Polish migrants show the highest activity levels and lowest occupational status, also when compared to Bulgarians. Spanish migrants hold the highest occupational statuses. Recent Turkish migrants seem to be better integrated and show fewer gender differences than the more established Turkish minority in the Netherlands.     

Marriage and separation risks among German cohabiters: Differences between types of cohabiter

We propose a typology of different meanings of cohabitation that combines cohabiters’ intentions to marry with a general attitude toward marriage, using competing risk analyses to examine whether some cohabiters are more prone than others to marry or to separate. Using data (N = 1,258) from four waves of the German Family Panel (PAIRFAM) and a supplementary study (DEMODIFF), we compared eastern and western German cohabiters of the birth cohorts 1971–73 and 1981–83. Western Germans more frequently view cohabitation as a step in the marriage process, whereas eastern Germans more often cohabit as an alternative to marriage. Taking into account marital attitudes reveals that cohabiters without marriage plans differ from those with plans in their relationship careers, and also shows that cohabiters who plan to marry despite holding a less favourable view of marriage are less likely to realize their plans than cohabiters whose intentions and attitudes are more congruent.     

区域性教师学习中的课程设计探析

课程设计是教师培训得以展开的前提,但现行课程模块的设计要么是国家从宏观层面设定,要么是学校从微观层面制定,均难以满足区域性教师学习的要求。本文以笔者所在区域的培训实践为依托,阐明区域性课程设计的依据、标准内容与应用。区域教师学习课程的设计需要考虑理论基础、政策基础和现实基础;在制定和应用其标准时要具备系统分析和动态生成的意识,在理论与实践的相互结合与相互验证中不断进行双向建构。     

高等院校物流管理专业实习实训方案的设计

随着我国社会经济的不断发展,物流领域出现了专业人才匮乏的现象。在社会对物流人才需求旺盛的情况下,很多高等院校相继开设了物流管理专业,以期通过大量培养物流管理专业的人才来满足相关企业的需求。但是在实践中,很多物流管理专业的学生在实习工作中缺少应变能力,实践能力弱,不能达到物流企业的用人标准。对目前高等院校物流管理专业实习实训方案进行了分析探讨,以期设计出一个相对完善、创新的物流管理专业实习实训方案,促进物流管理人才的培养,有效满足当前物流管理人才供不应求的紧张局面,促进我国整个物流领域更好更快地发展。     

FIDIC合同条件中工程师的作用及其在中国的发挥

FIDIC合同条件中对工程师授权的宽泛性和工程师作用的充分发挥一直被看做该合同条件的一个特点和长处。文章分析该合同条件中工程师的权利和职责,特别是在工程设计、工程质量和争议解决方面,并且探讨这些作用在中国环境下的发挥。