千城一面——造城时代下的物竞天择

随着对城镇化质量的日益关注,媒体与学界对千城一面的批判愈演愈烈。然而,如果将城市看做是地球生态系统的一部分,遵循生物界优胜劣汰、适者生存的丛林法则,那么千城一面现象便是时代背景下环境选择的结果——特定的科技、经济、文化发展水平等客观属性,把在生存竞争中处于劣势的建筑形制与空间范式逐一淘汰,筛选出最符合时代需求与发展方向的特征传承下去。在理解千城一面的时代必然性的基础上,理性认识古典主义与现代主义、空间舒适性与独特性、空间使用者的主与客之间的辩证关系,才能走出"为批判而批判"的误区。     

基于个性化需求的产品竞争供应链结构选择

基于"制销分离"与"定制一体"两种结构选择,构建个性化产品供应链处于非竞争与竞争环境下的博弈模型,在引入一个实际案例的基础上,运用算例仿真比较分析两种运营模式下的供应链运作策略和盈利差异。结果显示：与制销分离结构相比,个性化产品供应链选择定制一体结构,有利于匹配产品个性化制造、提升产品个性化水平和市场需求、增加供应链的期望收益;个性化产品供应链选择制销分离结构时,适度的批发价格激励能够提升产品个性化水平、更好满足消费者个性化需求、改善供应链的运营绩效,分销商适度让利加大批发价格激励力度可显著促进产品个性化制造互动、提升产品个性化水平;竞争将消减个性化产品供应链的运营绩效,但选择定制一体结构可显著提升竞争力。     

A multicriteria sorting approach based on data envelopment analysis for R&D project selection problem

In this paper, multiple criteria sorting methods based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) are developed to evaluate research and development (R&D) projects. The weight intervals of the criteria are obtained from Interval Analytic Hierarchy Process and employed as the assurance region constraints of models. Based on data envelopment analysis, two threshold estimation models, and five assignment models are developed for sorting. In addition to sorting, these models also provide ranking of the projects. The developed approach and the well-known sorting method UTADIS are applied to a real case study to analyze the R&D projects proposed to a grant program executed by a government funding agency in 2009. A five level R&D project selection criteria hierarchy and an assisting point allocation guide are defined to measure and quantify the performance of the projects. In the case study, the developed methods are observed to be more stable than UTADIS.     

不均等选择概率下的加权调整研究

从不均等选择概率的角度,提出两类常见的权数调整类型及其调整方法:一是规模调整,使得样本单元权数之和等于总体规模;二是结构调整,使得样本结构和总体结构一致,并构造出加权调整的设计效应模型,应用于复杂样本设计。案例分析显示,加权调整往往导致设计效应变大,带来负的效应,但校准调整能降低设计效应,提高估计精度。     

中国省域创新创业环境评价指标体系的构建研究——对全国31个省级单位的测评

围绕创新创业环境的内涵,梳理了影响创新创业环境的六类主要因素,归纳潜在指标;对各潜在指标进行"聚类—因子—权重"综合分析,提炼影响创新创业环境的主要因子,构建出以6个一级指标和20个二级指标为核心的创新创业环境评价指标体系,并建立评价模型。以中国各省为样本,对全国31个省级单位的创新创业环境在2014年的状况进行测评排序。依据各省创新创业环境综合得分情况,得出全国31省2014年创新创业环境的地理空间分布图。分地区评价结果显示,东部地区创新创业环境具有明显优势,中部、东北和西部地区发展空间较大。从准则层指出各个地区优化创新创业环境的着力点。     

Model selection consistency of U-statistics with convex loss and weighted lasso penalty

In the paper we consider minimisation of U-statistics with the weighted Lasso penalty and investigate their asymptotic properties in model selection and estimation. We prove that the use of appropriate weights in the penalty leads to the procedure that behaves like the oracle that knows the true model in advance, i.e. it is model selection consistent and estimates nonzero parameters with the standard rate. For the unweighted Lasso penalty, we obtain sufficient and necessary conditions for model selection consistency of estimators. The obtained results strongly based on the convexity of the loss function that is the main assumption of the paper. Our theorems can be applied to the ranking problem as well as generalised regression models. Thus, using U-statistics we can study more complex models (better describing real problems) than usually investigated linear or generalised linear models.     

西欧主要政党干部的培养与选拔探析

一个政党能不能不断培养和推出大批优秀的领导人才,在很大程度上影响着该党的政治能力。西欧政党在对干部的物色与发掘、提名与选举、监督与管理、干部的教育与培训等环节都形成了自己的突出特点,其干部培养选拔体现了突出的“选举导向”,干部选拔过程突出了公开性与竞争性原则,干部来源体现了一定的开放性与多元性,干部角色遵循了“非兼职”原则,保持了专业化、职业化。     

Forecast mean squared error reductionin the VAR(1) process

When VAR models are used to predict future outcomes, the forecast error can be substantial. Through imposition of restrictions on the off-diagonal elements of the parameter matrix, however, the information in the process may be condensed to the marginal processes. In particular, if the cross-autocorrelations in the system are small and only a small sample is available, then such a restriction may reduce the forecast mean squared error considerably.

In this paper, we propose three different techniques to decide whether to use the restricted or unrestricted model, i.e. the full VAR(1) model or only marginal AR(1) models. In a Monte Carlo simulation study, all three proposed tests have been found to behave quite differently depending on the parameter setting. One of the proposed tests stands out, however, as the preferred one and is shown to outperform other estimators for a wide range of parameter settings.     

道德的经济学——亲缘选择与广义效用理论

早期功利主义者认为效用不仅包括人们获得的物质利益,还包括精神上的追求和道德上的满足感。然而经济学数学化和公理化的趋势使经济学家更愿意把效用解释为物质利益上的满足,这极大地限制了经济学的解释力度。广义效用理论是在现代经济学的框架下对效用含义的扩展。通过对当前广义效用理论的回顾,结合生物学中的亲缘选择理论,提出了一个广义效用模型,并对模型的结果进行了分析。     

西部地区社会保障体系的模式设计与理论创新

西部地区的经济发展需要社会保障制度为其构筑一道“安全网”。回顾西部地区社会保障的发展历史,从社会保障中几个重要指标出发对西部地区社会保障制度作出绩效评估、分析其原因,并且提出西部地区建立覆盖城乡居民的社会保障体系的基本框架、实现路径、步骤与措施。