分整、协整及时变波动建模理论新进展——兼论诺贝尔经济学奖得主Granger和Engle的工作

综合分析近20年来经济计量建模理论在分数维长记忆时间序列的分析建模、协整(同积)理论的建立以及刻画经济金融波动的时变条件异方差过程的分析建模三个方面发生的重要变化以及在这些领域,Granger和Engle做出的极其重要贡献,并提出新的发展方向和领域。     

记忆的测量模型

本文讨论了正态分布下的信号检测法，对数分布下的信号检测法，双高阈限模型法和非参数模型法等四种具有代表性的记忆测量模型并对以上模型的分辩力指标和反应倾向指标作了分析说明．     

免疫信息系统的数据安全与应用

随着社会的进步,居民生活水平的不断提高,疾病防护与儿童免疫全面信息化管理已经成为社会趋势。而对于该系统的数据安全问题就更显得十分重要,本采用双机热备份系统,对数据进行实时备份。     

Institutionalizing Counter‐Memories of the U.S. Civil Rights Movement: The National Civil Rights Museum and an Application of the Interest‐Convergence Principle

During the post–Reconstruction era in the United States, white southerners marked the cultural landscape with monuments and memorials honoring the Confederate cause and its heroes. These racialized symbols enjoyed an undisputed claim to public squares and parks throughout the South. It was not until the late twentieth century that commemorations to the black freedom struggle were publicly supported. This analysis examines the institutionalization of counter‐memories of the civil rights movement in Memphis, Tennessee at the Lorraine Motel, the site of the assassination of Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. The author draws on collective memory, cultural trauma, and social movements research as well as critical race theory to explain the creation of the National Civil Rights Museum. Using primary and secondary data sources the author examines how social memory agents, a changing political culture, and the passage of time mediated the cultural trauma of King's assassination and influenced the institutionalization of oppositional collective memories. Relying on Derrick Bell's interest‐convergence principle, the author concludes that the creation of this major memorial museum was a result of the convergence of white and black interests, specifically the economic and political interests of white elites and the cultural and political interests of black symbolic entrepreneurs.     

认知方式与线索提示对学龄儿童基于事件前瞻记忆的影响

通过严格控制实验程序,首次考察认知方式和线索提示对8岁、10岁、12岁学龄儿童EBPM的影响,并分析学龄儿童EBPM的发展趋势后发现：（1）8-12岁儿童EBPM能力仍在持续向前发展;（2）认知方式在儿童EBPM加工过程中扮演着重要角色,对年幼儿童（8岁和10岁）来说,场独立者更善于完成EBPM任务,而对12岁儿童来说,场独立者与场依存者都可以很好地完成EBPM任务;（3）线索提示有助于学龄儿童完成EBPM任务,并能弥补场依存儿童EBPM能力上的不足。研究结果支持PM多重加工理论。     

From Restored Past to Unsettled Present: New Challenges for Jewish Museums in East Central Europe

This article examines the institutional development of Jewish museums in Prague, Budapest, and Bratislava from 1989 to the present, with special reference to their role as agents of cultural memory. I consider how these museums contribute to the formation of Jewish identities in post-communist societies, which are themselves struggling to form collective identities. After analyzing the institutional structures and exhibition concepts of these museums in relation to shifts in the politics of representation, I propose a core area on which each museum could base its future development.     

The shtetl in the museum: representing Jews in the eras of Stalin and Putin

This article considers the representation of the shtetl in two museum narratives devoted to Jews in Soviet and post-Soviet Russia. The first, the state-funded 1939 exhibit “The Jews in Tsarist Russia and the USSR” was organized by the Jewish Section of the State Museum of Ethnography in Leningrad and remained on display to the Soviet public until the Nazi invasion in June 1941. The second is the privately funded Jewish Museum and Tolerance Center in Moscow, which opened in 2012. Though conceived under radically different ideological and political circumstances, each exhibition conveys a significant message about the place of Jews in Soviet and post-Soviet society, respectively, and each positions the shtetl as a formative arena for Jewish civic identity vis-à-vis the Russian homeland. Across the chasm of over seventy years, these two museum projects raise strikingly similar questions about how and why cultural institutions are mobilized to define the relationship of Ashkenazi Jews and the state. In both cases, the shtetl plays a significant role in narrating this unequal relationship.     

认知纬度解释图式在听力理解过程中的作用

图式理论对英语听力教学的积极作用已经越来越得到公认,国内不少学者对图式的应用价值问题予以了探讨。文章先将对图式及图式理论做较为系统的介绍,再对图式在听力理解中的作用做心理认知纬度的说明,并且对如何在听力教学中发挥图式作用提出自己的建议。期望在日常英语听力教学中运用图式的可操作性得以增强,从而使听力理解的实际效果得以改进。     

从有效市场假说到分形市场假说

介绍了有效市场假说理论的形成与发展以及有效市场假说所引发的争论。阐述了分形市场假说的基本理念,并对我国证券市场(以上海证券市场为例)的分形结构进行了实证分析。结果表明:中国证券市场具有明显的分形特征和持续性,股票的收益率不符合随机游走过程。股票收益率序列不是独立的,具有约62周的长期记忆性。     

Obtaining prediction intervals for FARIMA processes using the sieve bootstrap

The sieve bootstrap (SB) prediction intervals for invertible autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes are constructed using resamples of residuals obtained by fitting a finite degree autoregressive approximation to the time series. The advantage of this approach is that it does not require the knowledge of the orders, p and q, associated with the ARMA(p, q) model. Up until recently, the application of this method has been limited to ARMA processes whose autoregressive polynomials do not have fractional unit roots. The authors, in a 2012 publication, introduced a version of the SB suitable for fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average (FARIMA (p,d,q)) processes with 0<d<0.5 and established its asymptotic validity. Herein, we study the finite sample properties this new method and compare its performance against an older method introduced by Bisaglia and Grigoletto in 2001. The sieve bootstrap (SB) method is a numerically simpler alternative to the older method which requires the estimation of p, d, and q at every bootstrap step. Monte-Carlo simulation studies, carried out under the assumption of normal, mixture of normals, and exponential distributions for the innovations, show near nominal coverages for short-term and long-term SB prediction intervals under most situations. In addition, the sieve bootstrap method yields better coverage and narrower intervals compared to the Bisaglia–Grigoletto method in some situations, especially when the error distribution is a mixture of normals.