稳杠杆和稳增长目标下最优货币政策规则

针对货币政策如何对宏观杠杆率作出反应的问题,构建福利损失函数、动态IS-NK-Phillips曲线和自然利率内生决定方程所刻画的宏观经济约束环境,求解引入宏观杠杆率的最优利率和数量规则,并基于中国1996～2020年的季度宏观经济数据,采用GMM方法和State-Space方法分别估计固定参数和时变参数的最优货币政策规则。研究发现,中国最优利率规则和数量规则均具有显著盯住宏观杠杆的政策取向,且最优利率政策操作相比最优数量政策更具主动性; 最优利率规则促增长同时宏观杠杆率较为稳定,而最优数量规则熨平经济波动同时容易引发宏观杠杆率大幅波动; 面对重大经济冲击时,央行更加注重稳增长的同时包容温和通胀和适度杠杆。央行应对宏观杠杆率予以关注,发挥利率政策促增长的同时把好货币供应总闸门,进一步拓宽优化中国利率政策框架,延伸名义利率调控通货膨胀、实体经济和宏观杠杆的宽度,由不稳定规则转变为稳定规则,增强利率政策对宏观杠杆目标的调节功效,从而促进宏观经济可持续高质量发展。     

构建和谐社会视阈下地方政府微博定位探析

微博的便捷性、广泛性、互动性使其成为政府发声的重要途径之一.目前地方政府微博普遍存在语言、内容、态度定位不明确等现象,严重影响了地方政府微博功能的发挥.构建和谐社会视阈下,地方政府微博必须在语言上生活化,在内容上民生化,在态度上真诚化.     

考虑成分股联跳与宏观信息发布的沪深300指数已实现波动率模型研究

利用日内高频数据计算的已实现波动率较好度量了金融资产的风险,因此对其预测模型的研究具有重要意义。考虑到指数成分股的联跳可能蕴含指数跳跃所未能反映的信息,提出运用非参数方法识别指数成分股的联跳,采用自回归条件风险模型估计成分股联跳强度,并将其引入指数的已实现波动率异质自回归（HAR-RV-CJ）模型中,分析模型预测性能的改进。进一步的,考虑到宏观信息公告的发布可能对股市产生整体性影响,相应影响成分股联跳的几率;因此,在成分股联跳的自回归条件风险模型中引入居民消费价格指数、国内生产总值、贸易差额等宏观信息公告变量,并分析对联跳强度估计以及指数已实现波动率预测的影响。采用2011年1月4日至2013年7月11日沪深300指数及其成分股高频数据的实证表明,指数成分股联跳与指数跳跃具有不同的特征;用成分股联跳强度代替HAR-RV-CJ模型中的跳跃构建的HAR-RV-CI模型,较原始的HAR-RV-CJ模型,以及同时考虑指数跳跃与成分股联跳强度的HAR-RV-CJI模型,具有明显较优的样本内拟合与样本外预测性能。引入宏观信息公告变量可以改进联跳强度自回归条件风险模型的拟合效果,并提高指数已实现波动率模型的样本内拟合能力,但对于指数已实现波动率的样本外预测性能并无明显的帮助。     

Rebuilding Community Organizing Education in Social Work

Although the campaign and election of Barack Obama as the nation's first President with a background in community organizing (CO) has boosted the visibility and popularity of the field, graduate social work programs have not taken full advantage of the opportunity. This article, therefore, presents a three-fold argument regarding the future of CO education. There is an increasing demand and need for trained organizers and community organizing education. This historical moment holds significant potential for CO education in social work. Graduate schools of social work with CO programs should broaden their outreach to attract potential students and activists to careers as social change agents.     

A Model for Change: Legislative Advocacy to Improving Access for the Uninsured and Underinsured in New York State 1

Advocates can successfully improve access to health care for people without health insurance. This article demonstrates the success of what began as a local advocacy effort to improve access to health care on Long Island, which later grew to become a major statewide advocacy movement. It explores the process taken by local coalition members to successfully fight for monumental public health legislation—first locally then statewide—to improve access to hospital care for the medically indigent. Using New York State as a model, it includes several approaches that could facilitate the enactment of legislation in other states. The experiences of New York advocates suggest that with focused collaborative efforts it is feasible to promote significant changes to public health laws to benefit the uninsured and underinsured.     

Attitudes Toward Advanced Licensing for Macro Social Work Practice

ABSTRACT

Trends in clinical licensing and a renewed energy to strengthen macro practice are raising questions about the appropriateness of licensure for macro social work practice. This article presents findings from an online survey of macro social work educators and macro social work practitioners exploring their attitudes toward an advanced-level macro social work license. Faculty and practitioner responders agreed that there is a role for advanced-licensing of macro social work practice; however, the lack of a collectively strong response reflects a current state of ambivalence toward advanced-level licensing for macro practice. Implications from these findings on contemporary social work are discussed.     

A Feminist Response to Rothman's 'The Interweaving of Community Intervention Approaches'

This paper critiques Jack Rothman's ''The Interweaving of Community Intervention Approaches'' (this volume) from a feminist perspective. A feminist version of his intervention typology, using a wide range of exemplars, is constructed. It suggests the scope of feminism not recognized in his account. Discussion centers on the construction of this feminist typology, which illuminates problems inherent in a categorical approach to community practice, such as Rothman's. It is argued that much would be gained by recognizing the dimensions of ideology, longitudinal development, and commitment within community intervention and incorporating social movement literature into practice analyses.     

Why do nations matter? The struggle for belonging and security in an uncertain world

This paper explores the reasons why national forms of identification and organization (might) matter in the contemporary era. In contrast to the majority of macro‐sociological work dealing with this topic, I develop an analytical framework that draws together recent research on everyday nationalism with micro‐sociological and psychological studies pointing to the importance of routine practices, institutional arrangements and symbolic systems in contributing to a relatively settled sense of identity, place and community. The second part of the paper focuses on the hierarchies of belonging that operate within a given national setting. Of particular interest is the largely taken‐for‐granted status of the ethnic majority and the degree to which it underpins claims to belonging and entitlement that are used to secure key allocative and authoritative resources.     

西方原型理论在中国的传播综论

西方原型理论自20世纪80年代传入中国以后,对中国学界产生了极大的冲击力,其传播至今还在进行。根据相关资料的统计数字和具体内容分析显示,原型理论的传播大致可以分为三个时期：1986-1989年间宏观译介的认知期,20世纪90年代暂时衰微的内化期,21世纪以来批评创新的发展期。     

宏程序在数控铣削加工中的应用

通过实例介绍了数控铣削加工中宏程序的编程方法和编程中应注意的问题。说明实际加工中根据零件和机床情况编制适当的宏程序,可有效提高劳动生产率。