Testing for a change point in a sequence of exponential random variables with repeated values

Two test statistics are proposed for the change-point problem with repeated values when the data follow an exponential distribution. The properties of these two statistics have been studied and their asymptotic distributions under the alternative have been derived. The powers of the two test statistics are compared. Real-data examples are presented to illustrate the application of these tests.     

Estimating ordered quantiles of two exponential populations with a common minimum guarantee time

The problem of estimating ordered quantiles of two exponential populations is considered, assuming equality of location parameters (minimum guarantee times), using the quadratic loss function. Under order restrictions, we propose new estimators which are the isotonized version of the MLEs, call it, restricted MLE. A sufficient condition for improving equivariant estimators is derived under order restrictions on the quantiles. Consequently, estimators improving upon the old estimators have been derived. A detailed numerical study has been done to evaluate the performance of proposed estimators using the Monte-Carlo simulation method and recommendations have been made for the use of the estimators.     

Complementary person-supervisor fit: An investigation of supplies-values (S-V) fit,leader-member exchange (LMX) and work outcomes

By applying the supplies-values (S-V) fit approach from the complementary person-environment (P-E) fit literature to the leader-employee perspective, and drawing upon social exchange theory, we examine how fulfillment of different work values is related to Leader-Member Exchange (LMX) and work outcomes. First, polynomial regression analyses combined with response surface analysis of data collected at two time points (N = 316) showed that LMX (Time 2) was higher the more the leader fulfills the employee's work values (Time 1). Second, LMX (Time 2) was higher when leader supplies (Time 1) and employee work values (Time 1) were both high than when both were low. Third, analyses of data from a sub-sample of matched leader-employee dyads (N = 140), showed that LMX (Time 2) played a mediating role on the relation between S-V fit (Time 1) and work outcomes (Time 2). Specifically, we found eight out of 10 relationships between S-V fit (Time 1) and leader-rated task performance and OCB (Time 2) to be fully mediated by LMX (Time 2). LMX (Time 2) partially mediated the relation between S-V fit (Time 1) and job satisfaction (Time 2) as only two out of five relationships were fully mediated.     

幼儿园表演区游戏开展中存在的问题及解决对策——以某幼儿园大班表演区游戏《小熊请客》为例

现如今大多数幼儿园将表演游戏融入区域活动中，作为表演区游戏开展活动之一，这一转变，在实践层面上有许多值得研究的问题。文章通过对某幼儿园大班表演区游戏的观察研究发现，表演区游戏在开展中存在场所设置不合理、材料投放单一高控、游戏参与积极性低等问题。为此提出相应的解决对策：游戏前准备适宜的场地、丰富的内容、多样的材料；游戏中细心观察，适时引导，指导过程中注意重游戏轻表演；游戏后共同分享交流，解决游戏中出现的问题，以此更好地发挥表演区游戏的实际效用。     

Impact of an Overt Response System on Staff Performance and Maintenance of Computer-Based Instruction

Interactive Computer Based Instruction (CBI) systems involve teaching strategies to facilitate greater response opportunities during training in an effort to improve learner performance. The current study investigated the effect of online staff training videos with and without overt response requirements on posttest and maintenance test scores across six block-randomized instructional modules for four employees of a university located in the southeastern region of the United States. The overt response consisted of multiple-choice questions administered throughout select teaching modules using an alternating treatment design. Findings suggest that learning occurred as a result of the CBI training; however, the effectiveness of the overt response system varied across individuals, with no discernible differentiation between learning gains associated with response requirements. Other areas of research for expanding the efficacy of CBI and overt response systems are highlighted.     

Measuring operational excellence: an operational excellence profitability (OEP) approach

The pursuit of operational excellence in the manufacturing industry is at rise but its measurement still lacks of appropriate indicators to determine its financial benefits. The ambiguity is due to the impact arisen from manufacturing fluctuations such as price and cost, production mix and direct and indirect parameters variations. Manufacturing fluctuations distort the cost benefit of operational excellence. This paper, therefore, proposes the OEP (Operational Excellence Profitability) indicators to isolate the impact of manufacturing fluctuation and distinctly identify the payback of operational excellence strategies and initiatives through cost benefits of achieving higher efficiency and yield. The paper presents the conceptual and mathematical development of the proposed OEP indicators and the formulas used for their calculation. Hypothetical and industrial-based investigations and applications of the OEP indicators are conducted for their validation. The results obtained from the hypothetical exercise and industrial case suggest that OEP indicators can provide an effective cost-benefit analysis of operational excellence. This would contribute in providing manufacturing organizations with more complete information regarding the performance of their processes, which will allow their directors and managers to take better decisions related to the management and improvement of their processes.     

Reputation spillover effects from grant‐providing institutions

There is a broad academic discussion about the impact of funding grants from a foundation or a government department on individual support intentions toward the nonprofit organization receiving the grant. However, the role of the grant provider's reputation has frequently been overlooked. In this study, we experimentally tested whether there is a reputation spillover effect of a grant‐providing organization. Based on a real‐life example, we asked citizens to rate their willingness to donate to a nonprofit organization, and we experimentally manipulated the available information on funding sources. We test this for both a government department and a foundation as a grant provider. Our results suggest that not the act of receiving a grant, but the citizens' awareness about the funding organization—at least in the case of a foundation—has an impact on support intentions. In contrast, for a prominent government department as a grant provider, we did not find support for a reputation spillover effect.     

我国企业国际承包工程绩效管理机制研究

国际工程承包近年来在我国取得了飞速发展，随着全球经济一体化进一步发展、我国国力的日益增强以及中国企业管理水平的提高，中国企业在国际工程承包方面竞争力日益增强的同时，如何构建有效的绩效管理机制也成为企业必须重视的课题。结合我国企业国际工程承包的发展历史及现状，重点分析了企业在经营过程中面临的问题，进而提出构建有效的绩效管理机制的方案。     

居委会绩效评估的可行性分析与逻辑架构

随着“单位制”的萎缩和“社区制”的凸显,“能力为本”已然成为社区建设的价值诉求.为增强居委会的能力,发挥社区的作用,探讨以居委会绩效评估作为提升社区能力的路径,论证居委会绩效评估的可行性,并在系统论的视角下设计居委会实施绩效评估的逻辑框架.     

Sensitivity Analysis Using Risk Measures

In a quantitative model with uncertain inputs, the uncertainty of the output can be summarized by a risk measure. We propose a sensitivity analysis method based on derivatives of the output risk measure, in the direction of model inputs. This produces a global sensitivity measure, explicitly linking sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We focus on the case of distortion risk measures, defined as weighted averages of output percentiles, and prove a representation of the sensitivity measure that can be evaluated on a Monte Carlo sample, as a weighted average of gradients over the input space. When the analytical model is unknown or hard to work with, nonparametric techniques are used for gradient estimation. This process is demonstrated through the example of a nonlinear insurance loss model. Furthermore, the proposed framework is extended in order to measure sensitivity to constant model parameters, uncertain statistical parameters, and random factors driving dependence between model inputs.