Some Problems in Forecasting Population for Government Planning Purposes

Some governments rely on centralized, official sets of population forecasts for planning capital facilities. But the nature of population forecasting, as well as the milieu of government forecasting in general, can lead to the creation of extrapolative forecasts not well suited to long-range planning. This report discusses these matters, and suggests that custom-made forecasts and the use of forecast guidelines and a review process stressing forecast assumption justification may be a more realistic basis for planning individual facilities than general-purpose, official forecasts.     

An integrated nurse staffing and scheduling analysis for longer-term nursing staff allocation problems

The efficient and effective management of nursing personnel is of critical importance in a hospital's environment comprising a vast share of the operational costs. The adopted nurse workforce practices and policies highly affect the nurses' working conditions and the provided quality of care. Policy decisions on the staffing level have an impact on the outcome of the scheduling level and vice versa. Isolated reasoning typically leads to suboptimal decisions often resulting in ineffective outcomes of care. In order to overcome these inefficiencies, we propose in this paper a new integrative nurse staffing and shift scheduling approach. We test and assess the benefits of our approach in a reallife environment. Moreover, we examine the impact of several personnel policies on the staffing decision.     

Implementation of S-DBR in four manufacturing SMEs: a research case study

Production planning and control systems (PPCs) are tools that have a major effect on the performance of manufacturing companies. An inappropriate determination of the applicability of PPCs could seriously jeopardise the ability to achieve competitive priorities. This mistake can be expensive for any company, but proper implementation is particularly critical for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which are characterised by limited access to financial resources. Simplified Drum–Buffer–Rope (S-DBR) is a PPC control approach that is characterised by minimum detail in the planning stage and a primary emphasis on the control of execution. Therefore, this approach is a suitable choice for the highly variable context of SMEs. This study aims to explore the practical issues related to S-DBR implementation in four Ecuadorian SMEs through case study research. The case analysis within this study first identifies the choices made in the implementation process design within the four companies according to process and product characteristics. We then conduct a cross-case analysis to explore the effects of the S-DBR implementation process designs on a group of performance measures. Our research findings provide new insights into the S-DBR implementation process in the context of SMEs, and the effects of this approach on performance measures.     

Production planning and control for remanufacturing: literature review and analysis

This article reviews the literature on production planning and control (PPC) for remanufacturing. The objectives are threefold: to determine whether the gaps identified by Guide (Guide Jr, V.D.R., 2000. Production planning and control for remanufacturing: industry practice and research needs. Journal of Operations Management, 18, 467–483) on the subject with respect to the main complicating characteristics of remanufacturing have been fulfilled; to classify the literature based on an appropriate structure to obtain a better understanding of the subject identifying sources of future research and to provide a useful source for scholars and practitioners. Seventy-six papers were examined and classified. It was found that none of the studies deals simultaneously with all of the complicating characteristics, and that more practical research is needed. In addition it was found that we lack studies regarding forecasting and aggregate planning considering disassembly of returned products, material matching restrictions or stochastic routings, master production scheduling considering material matching restrictions or stochastic routings, ordering system and capacity planning considering material matching restrictions and inventory control and management considering stochastic routings.     

A simulation testing and analysis of aggregate production planning strategies

In this study, a hybrid discrete event simulation (DES) and system dynamics (SD) methodology is applied to model and simulate aggregate production planning (APP) problem for the first time. DES is used to simulate operational-level and shop-floor activities incorporated into APP and estimate critical time-based control parameters used in SD model of APP and SD is used to simulate APP as a collection of aggregate-level strategic decisions. The main objective of this study is to determine and analyse the effectiveness of APP strategies regarding the Total Profit criterion by developing a hybrid DES–SD simulation model for APP in a real-world manufacturing company. The simulation results demonstrated that the priority of APP strategies with regards to Total Profit criterion is: (1) the pure chase strategy, (2) the modified chase strategy, (3) the pure level strategy, (4) the modified level strategy, (5) the mixed strategy and (6) the demand management strategy, respectively. The APP system is first simulated under mixed strategy (basic scenario) conditions to include all APP capacity and demand options in constructed SD simulation model to show a comprehensive view of APP components and their interdependent interactions. Then, the obtained results will be used as Total Profit measure to compare with system's performance under some experimental scenarios applying different APP strategies.     

Combined demand and lead time uncertainty with back-ordering in a multi-level product structure environment

The performance of two lot-sizing algorithms incorporating back-orders is evaluated and compared with several traditional lot-sizing rules. This comparison is undertaken for a multi-level product structure environment operating under a rolling horizon in the presence of both demand and lead time uncertainties. By means of simulation and statistical analysis of the simulation output, the impact on system performance of a variety of demand and lead time scenarios, product structures, cost parameters and lot-sizing, is evaluated. The conclusions drawn emphasize important differences in the influence of the factors on system performance given the presence or absence of uncertainty.     

A hierarchical production plan for a make-to-order steel fabrication plant

A three-tiered hierarchical production plan (HPP) for a strictly make-to-order steel fabrication plant with the objective of developing a production plan and master schedule for a set of product archetypes is implemented. Data are collected from an actual steel fabrication plant located in the Midwestern section of the US. An aggregate linear programming model, a non-linear disaggregate model and a master production schedule comprise the respective tiers. Appropriate models provide the forecasts needed in the first two tiers. A production plan and master schedule based on data collected at the plant, benefits expected for its implementation and practical limitations are reported.     

Smart cities: implications of urban planning for human resource development

This paper looks at creative or smart city experiments around the world that are aimed at nurturing a creative economy through investment in quality of life which in turn attracts knowledge workers to live and work in smart cities. It highlights the need for and broad nature of human resource/talent development initiatives at the intermediate level, that is regional and city level, as opposed to organizational and national level. Using the literature on economic geography, it provides a useful theoretical framework to cross organizational boundaries and look for factors that influence the decision of knowledge workers in choosing a location to live and work. The implications of urban planning on the theory and practice of human resource development are explored.     

劳动力市场分割、培训机会获取与新生代农民工培训收益率差异

新生代农民工就业能力的高低关系到国家经济转型和产业结构升级,通过职业技能培训对提高其就业能力具有重要和深远意义。本文根据调查样本数据,建立Logistic和Stepwise回归模型,在劳动力市场分割视角下分析新生代农民工职业培训选择影响因素并对培训收益率进行研究,发现职业培训对低学历者存在"挤出效应",劳动力市场分割对农民工的培训机会和培训收益方面存在显著影响;与学校教育相比,职业技能培训对新生代农民工收入增长作用仍待进一步提高。据分析,政府必须统筹规划不同劳动力市场的职业技能培训资源,优化配置培训资源;同时,为提高职业培训的效率和效益,必须对免费培训选择性的"提档升级",努力规避培训对低学历的"挤出效应"。     

Complementary Drivers of New Product Development Performance: Cross‐Functional Coordination,Information System Capability,and Intelligence Quality

Coordination efforts that access and align relevant cross‐functional expertise are regarded as an essential element of innovation success. In recent years, these efforts have been further augmented through complementary investments in information systems, which provide the technological platforms for information sharing and coordination across functional and organizational boundaries. Somewhat overlooked has been the critical mediating role of the intelligence gained through these efforts and capabilities. This study draws on the theory of complementarity to elaborate on the nature of this mediating concept. Theoretical predictions of the model are tested using instrument variable regression analysis of data collected from a sample of publicly traded US manufacturing firms. The findings suggest that the effects of both internal and external coordination on market intelligence and supply‐chain intelligence are moderated by the firm's information system capability. The effect of both types of intelligence quality on new product development performance was contingent with the effects being enhanced (attenuated) when the market conditions were dynamic (stable). The results are robust to common‐method bias, endogeneity concerns, and alternative estimation methods.