Three-level main-effects designs exploiting prior information about model uncertainty

To explore the projection efficiency of a design, Tsai, et al [2000. Projective three-level main effects designs robust to model uncertainty. Biometrika 87, 467–475] introduced the Q criterion to compare three-level main-effects designs for quantitative factors that allow the consideration of interactions in addition to main effects. In this paper, we extend their method and focus on the case in which experimenters have some prior knowledge, in advance of running the experiment, about the probabilities of effects being non-negligible. A criterion which incorporates experimenters’ prior beliefs about the importance of each effect is introduced to compare orthogonal, or nearly orthogonal, main effects designs with robustness to interactions as a secondary consideration. We show that this criterion, exploiting prior information about model uncertainty, can lead to more appropriate designs reflecting experimenters’ prior beliefs.     

Bayesian locally optimal design of knockout tournaments

The elimination or knockout format is one of the most common designs for pairing competitors in tournaments and leagues. In each round of a knockout tournament, the losers are eliminated while the winners advance to the next round. Typically, the goal of such a design is to identify the overall best player. Using a common probability model for expressing relative player strengths, we develop an adaptive approach to pairing players each round in which the probability that the best player advances to the next round is maximized. We evaluate our method using simulated game outcomes under several data-generating mechanisms, and compare it to random pairings, to the standard knockout format, and to two variants of the standard format.     

“台湾老兵”的婚姻状况调查及原因分析——以浙江籍“台湾老兵”为个案

“台湾老兵”问题是历史留存于海峡两岸的中国社会的特殊问题，而婚姻问题又是“台湾老兵”中最突出的问题。文章以浙江籍“台湾老兵”为个案，调查了他们去台湾前后的婚姻状况，并分析了造成大多数“台湾老兵”在台湾孤单度过大半辈子、甚至一辈子的原因。     

美是上帝的名字：神学美学的核心命题

中世纪基督教神学美学是围绕“美是上帝的名字”展开的。其中通过三位一体、创世、道成肉身、救赎和永生等基本教义的讨论，深刻揭示了美与真、善的关系，爱、与信、望的关系，认识、意志、情感的关系，以及从对事物的美的欣赏到静观上帝--美本身的心路历程，不仅充分反映了中世纪人们的审美理想，也概括了人类某些共同的审美经验。     

信息时代流通馆员应是图书馆服务工作的“主角”

部分高校图书馆把工作的重心几乎都转移到了数字图书馆、虚拟图书馆,纸质馆藏、流通工作有所弱化,对传统的流通工作认识有偏差,造成流通馆员对工作认识不足.通过对流通管理工作的分析,认为信息时代的流通馆员应是高校图书馆这个大舞台的主要角色,流通服务工作应是图书馆工作的核心,应唤起流通馆员的职业崇高意识,从而树立现代图书馆的新形象,为读者更好地服务.     

关于外汇期货套期保值比率的实证研究

最佳套期保值比率(OHR)的估计方法一直是金融工程理论研究的核心问题,从最开始的幼稚法到JSE法 以及随后的很多其他改进方法,保值效率都有不同程度的提高。使用包含误差修正结构的GARCH模型估计外汇 (澳大利亚元)期货的套期保值比率。通过效率比较,证实该模型所得到的套期保值比率比起传统方法都具有更好 的降低风险能力。     

网络时代高校“两课”教学模式的变革

随着互联网的出现,传统的高校“两课”教学模式受到了挑战,教学环境从单一到多样,教学过程从机械、被动到灵活、主动,教学组织形式从封闭到开放。“两课”教师应与时俱进,适应新的变革。     

Partner Choice and the Differential Retreat From Marriage

The contemporary retreat from marriage in the United States has had a differential impact across socioeconomic and racial groups. Here, 1990 marriage rates and propensities for Virginia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are analyzed regarding (a) the likelihood that persons in different groups ever marry and (b) patterns of partner choice with respect to race and educational level. Marriage remains strong in most race‐education groups but is substantially lower among Blacks and among those with less than 12 years of education. Patterns of partner choice have shifted to show greater symmetry between the educational levels of brides and grooms. Changes have been modest with regard to the level and pattern of interracial (Black‐White) marriage. Marriage is increasingly a union of equals, but a union chosen more by Whites than by Blacks and more by the well educated than by the poorly educated.     

An alternative to farmer age as an indicator of life-cycle stage: The case for a farm family age index

In studies of farming, the age of the principal decision-maker (PDM) has been associated with numerous farm structural and managerial features and has been widely accepted as a good indicator of the influence of life-cycle factors on decision-making. As such, it has become an important aspect of many quantitative studies of agricultural change. However, contemporary studies of family farming demonstrate that the concept of a single PDM in family farms is becoming an anachronism as alternative enterprises, pluriactivity and the scale of family farms force more diffuse management/operating systems. This raises questions concerning whether the age of the PDM can still be taken as representative of farm structure, strategy or life-cycle stage? Using a study conducted in the Grampian Mountains region of Scotland in 2003 this note investigates the impact of using an alternative index—compiled by averaging the age of family members working on the farm. It suggests that PDM age is a relatively poor indicator of farm structural and managerial features compared to a family age index and calls for researchers to think about alternative approaches to measuring ‘age’ as an indicator.     

Optimal designs for generalized linear models

Summary This paper solves some D-optimal design problems for certain Generalized Linear Models where the mean depends on two parameters and two explanatory variables. In all of the cases considered the support point of the optimal designs are found to be independent of the unknown parameters. While in some cases the optimal design measures are given by two points with equal weights, in others the support is given by three point with weights depending on the unknown parameters, hence the designs are locally optimal in general. Empirical results on the efficiency of the locally optimal designs are also given. Some of the designs found can also be used for planning D-optimal experiments for the normal linear model, where the mean must be positive. This research was carried out in part at University College, London as an M.Sc. project. Thanks are due to Prof. I. Ford (University of Glasgow) and Prof. A. Giovagnoli (University of Perugia) for their valuable suggestions and critical observations.