我国旅游资源经营权转让中的制度安排研究

转让旅游资源经营权已成为当前我国许多景区管理和经营改革过程中引入企业化经营的一种制度创新模式,目前在旅游资源经营权转让问题上存在一些政策的禁区和理论的障碍。通过对经营权转让存在问题的分析,认为通过科学合理的制度安排是解决问题的关键。旅游景区(点)经营权转让中制度安排的重点是各利益主体的责、权、利制度安排。同时应用重复博弈中的重复剔除占优策略均衡模型,论证了在合理的制度安排下,旅游景区经营者为了长期的经济效益,必将采取保护景区生态环境的战略。     

浅议当前农村养老保障体系中的缺陷和问题

目前农村家庭养老矛盾重重 ,面临农村养老保障由家庭养老向社会养老逐渐过渡的问题。在统筹社会养老基金时 ,应考虑农村养老保障体制转换成本问题 ,应由集体经济和国家负担部分转换成本。家庭养老以精神激励为主 ,但也要实行有效的监督。社会养老基金统筹可采用浮动制的收费办法 ,以弥补保费收缴水平偏低的矛盾     

社会资本视角下“以购代捐”精准扶贫模式研究 ——基于凉山彝族自治州的实证分析

以凉山彝族自治州在精准扶贫过程中,为破解贫困地区“孤岛效应”,探索“以购代捐”扶贫模式为例,基于社会资本导向 的反贫困治理策略,分析“以购代捐”扶贫模式的理论内涵、演进路径、模式创新等,提出“以购代捐”正面临,物流投入滞后,影 响农产品品质;质量标准缺乏,制约农产品价格;质量检测缺位,食品安全堪忧;产品价格缺乏优势,长期执行易陷入行政摊派 等现实问题,为了完善“以购代捐”精准扶贫模式,建议：一要调动贫困农户生产积极性,保证农民“爱种（养）”;二要合理兼顾帮 扶单位的利益,让对口帮扶单位“爱吃”;三是政策措施要简单易行,让行政主管部门“爱扶”。     

新政府会计制度下重构水利部门整体支出绩效评价体系

2014年新修订的《预算法》实施和2018年中央出台的《关于全面实施预算绩效管理的意见》意味着我国政府非常重视预算绩效管理,财政部门还专门出台了项目支出、部门整体支出、财政预算等绩效评价共性指标体系框架。但2019年开始实施“双报告”的新会计制度,使得原来的绩效评价指标体系已经不适应新制度的要求,需要重新设计。文章以某市水利部门为例,在梳理国内外有关绩效评价的研究文献和实地调研的基础上,针对其实施现状和存在的问题,重新构建了部门整体支出绩效评价体系,以提升单位预算管理能力。     

农民的终结与制度安排——以上海市松江区为例

上海远郊的工业化、城市化、非农化发展迅速,农业从业人员大幅减少,工资性收入成为农村居民家庭可支配收入的主体。单纯从生产、生活方式来看,上海远郊已经基本实现"农民的终结"。上海市"三个集中"与"1966城镇体系"发展战略,以及各级政府采取的就业转岗、保障转型、户口转性等制度安排对于引导、保障农民走向终结之路作用显著。反思大都市郊区城镇化的内涵,强化农村社区居民属地市民化,是农民终结后的重要工作。     

马克思主义关于人的全面发展理论及对研究生思想政治教育的启示

马克思主义关于人的全面发展理论包括人的需要满足、人的能力提高、人的主体性发展和人的社会关系丰富等方面。当前,研究生教育存在重视专业学习而忽视思想政治教育的现象,其思想政治教育也存在着主体性欠缺、方式单一的弊端。以马克思主义关于人的全面发展理论为指导,加强对研究生思想政治教育,促进其全面发展;坚持以人为本,提高亲和力;尊重教育对象的个性,增强针对性;立足人的社会性,为和谐社会建设添砖加瓦。     

古镇旅游资源开发的总体设计思路——以胜芳古镇旅游资源开发为例

以胜芳古镇旅游资源开发为例,通过对古镇旅游资源的分析评价、SWOT分析、古镇旅游发展目标与战略等问题的分析,扼要阐释了古镇旅游资源开发的总体设计思路。     

Estimates of subgroup treatment effects in overall nonsignificant trials: To what extent should we believe in them?

In drug development, it sometimes occurs that a new drug does not demonstrate effectiveness for the full study population but appears to be beneficial in a relevant subgroup. In case the subgroup of interest was not part of a confirmatory testing strategy, the inflation of the overall type I error is substantial and therefore such a subgroup analysis finding can only be seen as exploratory at best. To support such exploratory findings, an appropriate replication of the subgroup finding should be undertaken in a new trial. We should, however, be reasonably confident in the observed treatment effect size to be able to use this estimate in a replication trial in the subpopulation of interest. We were therefore interested in evaluating the bias of the estimate of the subgroup treatment effect, after selection based on significance for the subgroup in an overall “failed” trial. Different scenarios, involving continuous as well as dichotomous outcomes, were investigated via simulation studies. It is shown that the bias associated with subgroup findings in overall nonsignificant clinical trials is on average large and varies substantially across plausible scenarios. This renders the subgroup treatment estimate from the original trial of limited value to design the replication trial. An empirical Bayesian shrinkage method is suggested to minimize this overestimation. The proposed estimator appears to offer either a good or a conservative correction to the observed subgroup treatment effect hence provides a more reliable subgroup treatment effect estimate for adequate planning of future studies.     

Adaptive phase I/II clinical trials for drug combination assessment in oncology using the outcomes of each cycle

Many new anticancer agents can be combined with existing drugs, as combining a number of drugs may be expected to have a better therapeutic effect than monotherapy owing to synergistic effects. Furthermore, to drive drug development and to reduce the associated cost, there has been a growing tendency to combine these as phase I/II trials. With respect to phase I/II oncology trials for the assessment of dose combinations, in the existing methodologies in which efficacy based on tumor response and safety based on toxicity are modeled as binary outcomes, it is not possible to enroll and treat the next cohort of patients unless the best overall response has been determined in the current cohort. Thus, the trial duration might be potentially extended to an unacceptable degree. In this study, we proposed a method that randomizes the next cohort of patients in the phase II part to the dose combination based on the estimated response rate using all the available observed data upon determination of the overall response in the current cohort. We compared the proposed method to the existing method using simulation studies. These demonstrated that the percentage of optimal dose combinations selected in the proposed method is not less than that in the existing method and that the trial duration in the proposed method is shortened compared to that in the existing method. The proposed method meets both ethical and financial requirements, and we believe it has the potential to contribute to expedite drug development.     

“国防一线”的“三线建设”——云南三线建设的历史研究

云南处于援越抗美和对越自卫反击战的国防一线,同时又是我国地缘国防战略的大后方。既是“一线”又是“三线”的特殊地缘政治环境,赋予了云南三线建设独特的面貌和经验。在1964年至1980年的云南三线建设历程中,经历了两个建设高潮。文章试图真实再现各个阶段的规划部署、实施过程,分析出现的问题,以弥补相关研究的不足。这场特殊的“备战经济”建设,为保卫边疆安全、巩固国防发挥了应有的作用,同时也为云南的经济社会发展做出了重大的贡献。