BATHTUB-TYPE CURVES IN RELIABILITY AND BEYOND

Finding optimal, or at least good, maintenance and repair policies is crucial in reliability engineering. Likewise, describing life phases of human mortality is important when determining social policy or insurance premiums. In these tasks, one searches for distributions to fit data and then makes inferences about the population(s). In the present paper, we focus on bathtub‐type distributions and provide a view of certain problems, methods and solutions, and a few challenges, that can be encountered in reliability engineering, survival analysis, demography and actuarial science.     

Poverty and social trends in Russia

The article describes the socioeconomic situation of the Russian population and its dynamics in 1992. The analysis is based on series of regional sociological surveys led by the All-Russian Living Standards Research Center and on official Russian statistical data. The basic unit of analysis is the family, and hence family typology approbated both in research and in practical social work is introduced. Besides describing and discussing the growing poverty tendencies in contemporary Russia, the article also contains methodological recommendations for social policy bodies and social workers on the strategy of work in social maintenance and social support of the least secure population strata.     

从《叔尸钟》看铭文人称代词使用的混乱

铭文的叙述视角和人称代词的使用具有对应关系,第一人称叙述视角要求用第一人称代词来指称作器者,第三人称叙述视角则应用第三人称代词来指称作器者。一篇铭文一般只能有一个叙述视角,若任意变换叙述视角,就会造成叙述视角混乱,从而导致人称代词使用的混乱。作为两周铭文中人称代词最全的铭文之一的《叔尸钟》,由于多次变换叙述视角,其人称代词使用的混乱情况尤为典型。     

现代节约的价值及其特征

现代节约既包含个人价值，也包含社会价值。与古代节约相比，现代节约的内涵更丰富，价值更高。它不仅指生产、生活、工作方面的节约，而且也包含节约人类创造出来的财富和尚未开发的自然资源；不仅是被动地抑制自己的物质消费来适应环境，而且还通过节约提高劳动生产率，更有效地利用自然资源创造出更多更好的财富以提高人类的生活质素，推动人类的发展。在新的形势下，重新审视节约的价值，对于推动具有中国特色的社会主义建设的发展具有现实的意义。     

间歇开放系统的可靠性分析与数值计算

研究了一种新型的可靠性系统，即间歇开放系统。在建立数学模型的基础上，我们详细分析了系统有关的可靠性问题，不仅获得时刻ｔ系统失效的概率和（０，ｔ］中系统失效的平均次数的瞬态解，而且也获得其平稳结果。最后用数值计算比较了间歇开放系统和经典系统的差别。     

A Multivariate Model for Repeated Failure Time Measurements

A parametric multivariate failure time distribution is derived from a frailty-type model with a particular frailty distribution. It covers as special cases certain distributions which have been used for multivariate survival data in recent years. Some properties of the distribution are derived: its marginal and conditional distributions lie within the parametric family, and association between the component variates can be positive or, to a limited extent, negative. The simple closed form of the survivor function is useful for right-censored data, as occur commonly in survival analysis, and for calculating uniform residuals. Also featured is the distribution of ratios of paired failure times. The model is applied to data from the literature     

考虑质量失误的供应链博弈模型研究

在理性的制造商和供应商组成的二级供应链中,考虑存在产品质量失误的情况下,通过最优化方法选择中间品的质量水平和制造商的检测水平,以实现供应链的利润最大化.并结合实际情况,根据质量内部、外部失误的不同承担方式,讨论了三种质量损失承担方式,得到在整体损失由两者共同承担的情况下,通过制定合理的内、外部损失分配系数,可以使两者选择水平的纳什均衡解与供应链的全局最优解相符,从而实现供应链全局最优和局部最优的一致.所得结论对指导供应链的有效运作有着较好的实际意义和参考价值.     

论人身自由权的暂时性法律保护——以行政强制措施检察监督为视角

人身自由权是人的最基本的、最起码的权利,公民人身自由权的保护通过宪法确认,由具体的法律制度落实。我国法律制度中缺乏对行政权剥夺人身自由权的权力制约,从而使得人身自由权遭到严重侵害。暂时性法律保护的权力制约性、暂时性、及时性（中止性）和救济中的救济能够实现人身自由权的保护。人身自由权遭受严重损害的现实和现有的监督机制不足以保障公民人身自由权,使得人身自由暂时性法律保护成为必然。十八届四中全会的政策要求、国外的成功经验、民法上的人身安全保护令的实践经验以及刑罚执行上的“刀下留人”的经验使得人身自由暂时性法律保护成为可能。暂时性人身自由的法律保护制度适用于行政行为。借鉴西方人身保护状制度、建立限制人身自由行为的事前报告审查和行政相对人请求保护制度,能够实现人身自由的暂时性法律保护。     

Dynamic preference revelation and expression of personal frames: how Weibo is used in an anti-nuclear protest in China

This study explores the use of Weibo in a protest against a nuclear fuel processing plant in China. This study argues that social media play an important role in the development of protests in non-democratic societies through the mechanism of preference revelation, which blurs the boundary between offline protests and the individualized expression of preferences on social media. Of Weibo tweets which were posted prior to the occurrence of the offline protest, 11,788 protest-related were examined with the aid of a supervised machine learning technique. The results showed that the revelation of personal preferences in the form of individualized expressions of opposition were more common than mobilization and coordination, and such preferences were legitimized by the personal frames of risk and the distrust in government. The use of Weibo to mobilize potential opponents to the project, primarily by calling for the expression of opposition, was less frequent than the use of Weibo to express personal frames. Furthermore, the prevalence of Weibo usage changed dramatically. In the first few days of the protest, the revelation of personal preferences and personal frames of risk were prominent, whereas personal frames of distrust in government were common in the days leading to the street protest.