公共决策的民主化与执政能力的提高

执政党的主要行为表现为制定政策,而连接政党和群众的一个重要纽带就是公共政策。可以说,政党执政能力的高低,在某种程度上取决于政策制定的好坏。民主化作为一个国家和民族政治文明程度的重要标尺,政策的民主化对于执政党显得尤为重要,本文从公共决策民主化的角度来探讨对于政党执政能力提高的重要意义。     

基于聚集经济的影响外商直接投资的因素分析

文章选取广东省 2 1个行政区 1996至 2 0 0 2年的数据 ,采用主因子分析和多元统计回归分析对影响外资在广东聚集的因素进行分析 ,因子分析从 11个解释变量中提取出五个主因子 ,它们分别是经济发展规模和水平、产业聚集、劳动力聚集、经济开放度和政策因子。回归分析表明了每个解释变量对利用外资额的弹性。文章最后提出了产业聚集的引资策略。     

重庆市股份制商业银行的SWOT分析

根据一般企业的SWOT分析理论,对商业银行的SWOT分析要素进行设计。运用这种方法对重庆市股份制商业银行的内部优势、劣势以及外部机遇和威胁进行分析。根据分析结果,提出相应的经营措施。     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

农民工市民化政策博弈分析

农民工市民化不仅能加快城镇化进程,而且能有效地解决我国“三农”问题。当前,这一政策的实施遇到了一定困难。首先以政府和农民工为对策主体,建立了完全理性和有限理性的静态与动态几种博弈模型;分析了在一定政策环境下,政策和农民工之间的对策,并提出了农民工转化为市民的若干政策建议。在此基础上,将其收益矩阵进行了一般处理,使其结论更具普遍性。博弈分析结果表明现阶段政府不宜采用大规模转化农民工为市民的政策。     

娱乐类文本短信的语用分析

本文选取娱乐类文本短信,试用指示语、预设、言语行为、会话含义、礼貌原则、关联理论等语用学的基本理论来分析它,旨在探究语用规律和娱乐类文本短信的关系,以期对语言交际和语言教学有所启发和指导。     

“霸王条款”形成的博弈分析

霸王条款违背了市场经济自由、平等和公平的原则,严重侵害消费者权益。对霸王条款显失公平的判断可以通过经济分析的方法进行,分析其成因旨在为铲除霸王条款提供决策上的依据。     

县域经济影响因素的数量经济分析

县域经济受多种因素影响,影响程度不同。各因素对县域经济内部不同层次和整个县域经济发展的影响也不一样,差异很大。建立县域经济影响因素数量经济模型并进行多层面实证分析,可以得到县域土地面积与县域经济水平反比等重要结论。     

我国民营企业衰败的内部因素

改革开放以来,随着我国市场经济体制的逐步建立,一大批民营企业迅速崛起。但是也有一部分企业在取得了短暂的辉煌之后迅速地走向了衰败。导致民企衰败的原因可以分为外部因素和内部因素两大类,内部因素主要表现在忽视基础管理、战略缺失、非理性决策和盲目扩张等几个方面。