东方系统方法论指导项目评价实践：科学性与艺术性的结合

针对西方评价方法论缺少系统性与灵活性的特点,提出东方系统方法论指导项目评价活动的理念。通过分析东方系统方法论对于项目评价实践的适应性,构建了项目评价决策概念模型和项目评价全过程模型,并以“知物理、明事理、通人理”为指导思想对项目评价全过程进行了系统分析。     

基于柔性资源约束的前摄性项目调度优化研究

不确定环境中，项目进度计划鲁棒性的高低直接影响项目能否顺利实施。本文研究了具有随机活动工期的柔性资源约束下的前摄性项目调度优化问题，目标是在柔性资源和项目工期的约束下，借助对活动开始时间合理的进行安排进而得到拥有最大鲁棒性的进度计划。首先对研究问题进行界定；随后构建优化模型，并根据问题NP-hard属性和模型特点设计了双层嵌套禁忌搜索启发式算法，通过内外两层交互搜索寻找满意解；最后通过一个实际案例对本文研究进行说明，并分析关键参数对进度计划鲁棒性的影响，得到如下结论：相对于资源无柔性情况下的项目进度计划而言，资源具备柔性后得到的项目进度计划的鲁棒性更高，具有更强的抗干扰能力，能够保证项目稳定执行；同时，项目进度计划鲁棒性分别随着项目工期的延长、资源可用量的增加或资源柔性的提高而上升。     

Performance of TOC based finite capacity material requirement planning system for a multi-stage assembly factory

This paper aims to develop a finite capacity material requirement planning (FCMRP) system based on TOC philosophy (TOC-MRP) for multi-stage assembly factory that has some bottleneck stations. The proposed TOC-MRP system tries to load and schedule operations on bottleneck stations in a manner that they are free of idle time and overtime. The schedules on non-bottleneck stations will be arranged until they are not conflicting with those on the bottleneck stations. The non-bottleneck stations are allowed to have idle time and overtime if necessary. To analyse whether TOC-MRP is effective, it is compared with a FCMRP method that does not adopt TOC philosophy. The experimental results reveal that the TOC-MRP outperforms the FCMRP without TOC philosophy.     

Spinal Cord Injury

ABSTRACT

This article provides an overview of spinal cord injury (SCI) that is useful and informative for social workers and other health care professionals who work with this population. Social workers new to the specialty of spinal cord injury must expand their knowledge base of this chronic injury. Social workers contribute to the rehabilitation process through assessment, education, and discharge planning. This article also may be used to inform persons with spinal cord injury and their families and to encourage them to engage in dialogue about SCI in the earliest stages of treatment and rehabilitation.     

Does trust increase willingness to pay higher taxes to help the needy?

The article studies the causal effect of trust on the willingness to pay higher taxes to help the needy in a sample of 29 countries of Eastern and Southern Europe, and the former Soviet Union and Mongolia. It is hypothesized that interpersonal trust leads to a greater willingness to pay taxes to help the needy since (i) trust increases the likelihood of helping strangers; (ii) trust fosters solidarity and cooperation when working to solve common problems in society; and (iii) trust reduces suspicion with respect to the perceived misuse of redistributed money. Three key findings are that the more people trust each other, the more they are ready to support the welfare state; the effect of trust on welfare state support holds even in a contextual environment characterized by rather lower levels of trust and relatively underdeveloped systems of redistribution; and higher individual‐level trust fosters tax morale and helps deter tax evasion.     

公共工程项目综合集成管理研究

公共工程项目管理过程是一个复杂的系统工程,传统工程项目管理的片面性、阶段性和局限性等缺点,使得进行公共工程项目综合集成管理,具有重大的理论和现实意义。公共工程项目综合集成管理包括管理目标集成、管理阶段集成、管理信息集成以及管理组织集成。综合集成模型以目标为中心,任意两个方面的集成都是相互影响、相互作用的关系,通过不断在不同集成间寻找配置关系来实现系统的集成管理目标,最终达到各方的共赢。     

化工技术开发项目估价方法的研究

化工技术开发项目的投资 ,主要包括有形资产投资和无形资产投资 .在作项目的经济评价时 ,要涉及从技术研究和开发阶段开始 ,直到项目建设实施阶段的全部资产价值 ,即从技术研究开发的成本和有形资产的成本两方面来考虑 .综合对项目资产和技术进行估价 ,以作为投资决策的依据 .本文将从理论上探讨化工技术开发项目的估价方法 ,包括项目的技术估价和资产估价 .     

The Value of Weather Information for E‐Commerce Operations

To be efficient, logistics operations in e‐commerce require warehousing and transportation resources to be aligned with sales. Customer orders must be fulfilled with short lead times to ensure high customer satisfaction, and the costly under‐utilization of workers must be avoided. To approach this ideal, forecasting order quantities with high accuracy is essential. Many drivers of online sales, including seasonality, special promotions and public holidays, are well known, and they have been frequently incorporated into forecasting approaches. However, the impact of weather on e‐commerce operations has not been rigorously analyzed. In this study, we integrate weather data into the sales forecasting of the largest European online fashion retailer. We find that sunshine, temperature, and rain have a significant impact on daily sales, particularly in the summer, on weekends, and on days with extreme weather. Using weather forecasts, we have significantly improved sales forecast accuracy. We find that including weather data in the sales forecast model can lead to fewer sales forecast errors, reducing them by, on average, 8.6% to 12.2% and up to 50.6% on summer weekends. In turn, the improvement in sales forecast accuracy has a measurable impact on logistics and warehousing operations. We quantify the value of incorporating weather forecasts in the planning process for the order fulfillment center workforce and show how their incorporation can be leveraged to reduce costs and increase performance. With a perfect information planning scenario, excess costs can be reduced by 11.6% compared with the cost reduction attainable with a baseline model that ignores weather information in workforce planning.     

坚持依法行政抓紧抓好计划生育工作

依法行政是抓紧抓好计划生育工作的前提 ,也是维护法律权威和保护计生干部的需要。缺乏现代法律意识、缺乏有效的监督机制、缺乏解决基层行政执法难题的有效办法、缺乏对基层计生工作公正评价的能力是计生工作中制约依法行政的因素。强化全民法律意识 ,建立激励机制、内、外部检查机制及孕前管理机制等综合措施 ,以保证计划生育依法行政     

确立科学的思想观点 正确理解和推进“两个转变

实现计划生育工作思路和工作机制、运作方式的“两个转变” ,是我国计划生育的一项战略决策。本文论述了计生工作者应如何树立科学的思想观点 ,正确理解和推进“两个转变”