Using Epidemiological Studies to Check the Consistency of the Cancer Risks Predicted by High-Dose Animal Experiments: A Methodological Review

Epidemiological studies have been cited in the literature as evidence both for and against the human cancer risks predicted by high-exposure rodent studies. However, there has been little overall consistency in the ways that these animal-to-human comparisons have been made. This review examines some examples of these types of comparisons and describes the methods and techniques used by different investigators. Eleven "key decision areas" that need to be addressed are identified and recommendations for consistent, logical, and statistically appropriate approaches that might be taken to standardize the process are provided. In general, it is suggested that investigators provide the most useful information when they use logical, transparent, and statistically valid comparisons to pursue limited and focused objectives, such as directly testing the validity of an existing regulatory guidance value. Other recommendations include selecting biologically plausible extrapolative models that fit the data and drawing conclusions that are consistent with the study results and objectives.     

展望、回顾与探索--中国古代文学研究高层论坛综述

文章对2002年9月西安召开的"中国古代文学研究高层论坛"所涉及的"全球化背景下中国文学资源的价值重估"、"20世纪古代文学研究成果的回顾、批评与新世纪研究前景的展望"、"古代文学研究的学术规范"、"古代文学研究方法"四个问题的讨论情况以及一些主要论文的观点作了介绍与综述;并就讨论及论文中所涉及问题在中国古代文学研究方面的意义作了评析.     

管理运筹学课程教学改革“ 3+ 2”模式研究

文章从管理运筹学教学特征出发,针对学生运筹思维能力、实际应用能力和实际操作能力的培养和提高,提出了"3+2"教学模式.研究了实用案例教学法、趣味教学法、计算机"伴侣"教学法这3种教学方法以及布置作业与认真批改的2种教学控制手段.并将为经济管理类管理运筹学教学改革提供思路.     

刘克庄"诗外功夫"论的理论蕴含

在诗学领域普遍奢谈作诗方法技巧时,刘克庄另辟溪径,大谈"诗外功夫",从厚养、心静、气充、多读行远、染深、事成、功专等七个方面全方位论述了诗外功夫的内涵.     

高校国防教育工作刍议

阐述了高校国防教育与大学生军训的关系,从分析国防教育的深远意义入手,尤其是通过组织实施对大学生军训的实践,探索了开展国防教育对造就"有理想、有道德、有文化、有纪律"合格人才的作用。提出了对大学生进行军训和军事理论课教学是落实国防教育工作的重要途径。论述了如何将国防教育渗透到学生日常活动之中的方法及巩固学生军训成果的措施。     

慈善行为的经济学分析

在将经济学中的"理性人”假设引入慈善理论的基础上,仿效经济学中的消费理论建立了数学模型,分析了慈善行为的影响因素和激励措施,最后根据上述模型分析了我国慈善事业发展中的若干问题.     

明代戏曲论评对批评方法的运用

明代戏曲论评对批评方法的运用，主要体现在3个方面：一是对意象批评方法的运用；二是对比较批评方法的运用；三是对摘句批评方法的运用。明代戏曲论评作为我国古典曲学发展链条中的一个重要环节，它承上启下，在继承中拓展创新，为不同文学批评方法在清代戏曲论评中的进一步丰富、深化与完善提供了平台。     

数学推广的类型与思想方法

本文研究了数学推广的概念与类型，在此基础上进一步提出数学推广的思想方法，指出数学推广是数学创新的重要内容     

论刘咸炘的国学观念与学术思想

刘咸炘是中国近世学术史上罕见的天才,他承传家学,以史学见长,又吸收了西学,长期志于国学的研究和著述,建立了一个宏伟的学术体系.他认为国学与科学不同,具有综合的学术性质,四部书相连,不可划疆而治;并指明"事实考证"与专门学科的关系.他认为国学的目的是"以事明理",用于指导人们的社会实践.他长于吏学与思辩相结合的方法,故著述以吏学本体研究和理论探索为特点.刘咸炘吸收了新学,但本质上仍属于旧学的范围,虽然他在探索着国学研究的新道路.我们从其著述的广博和所达到的学理高度来看,刘咸炘不愧为蜀中的国学大师.     

Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications

Summary.  Risk is at the centre of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning countermeasures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers daily and the risk of infection has actuarial and epidemiological consequences. However, risk cannot be observed directly and it usually varies over time. We introduce a general multivariate time series model for the analysis of risk based on latent processes for the exposure to an event, the risk of that event occurring and the severity of the event. Linear state space methods can be used for the statistical treatment of the model. The new framework is illustrated for time series of insurance claims, credit card purchases and road safety. It is shown that the general methodology can be effectively used in the assessment of risk.