对外贸易对河南省GDP贡献的实证分析

对1985-2007年有关贸易数据的计量分析表明,河南的对外贸易对本省GDP的增长具有较大的拉动力,但出口产品结构层次不高等问题导致河南对外贸易效益低下。改变现有的贸易方式,提高河南经济的国际竞争力,应当从加快转变贸易增长方式、扩大自有品牌产品出口、大力发展加工贸易、适度扩大进口、鼓励境外投资等方面着手。     

汇率变动对日本贸易收支影响的实证研究

通过汇率变动对日本贸易收支影响的协整分析,发现实际有效汇率升值会引起日本的贸易顺差减少,但是汇率升值对日本贸易收支的影响不是十分显著,贸易收支的变动还要受到其他各种因素的制约。     

聚类分析法在高职院校订单式培养学生综合素质评价中的应用

订单式”人才培养模式的建立为高职教育教学改革注入了新的活力。但是，由高职院校因为缺乏有效的培养过程控制与竞争机制，也出现了影响该模式的良性循环和可持续发展的诸多问题。鉴于此，应尽快完善“订单式”人才培养模式中的过程控制与考核机制，建立一套科学、完备的考核指标体系是当务之急。对于订单式培养学生的综合素质评估结果，可以通过相关聚类分析方法，对订单班学生综合素质评估结果进行科学合理的分类，建立完善订单班学生能进能出、滚动淘汰的动态管理模式，达到订单式培养不仅“定数量”，更注重“定质量”的理想状态。     

Assessment of Catastrophic Risk Using Bayesian Network Constructed from Domain Knowledge and Spatial Data

Prediction of natural disasters and their consequences is difficult due to the uncertainties and complexity of multiple related factors. This article explores the use of domain knowledge and spatial data to construct a Bayesian network (BN) that facilitates the integration of multiple factors and quantification of uncertainties within a consistent system for assessment of catastrophic risk. A BN is chosen due to its advantages such as merging multiple source data and domain knowledge in a consistent system, learning from the data set, inference with missing data, and support of decision making. A key advantage of our methodology is the combination of domain knowledge and learning from the data to construct a robust network. To improve the assessment, we employ spatial data analysis and data mining to extend the training data set, select risk factors, and fine‐tune the network. Another major advantage of our methodology is the integration of an optimal discretizer, informative feature selector, learners, search strategies for local topologies, and Bayesian model averaging. These techniques all contribute to a robust prediction of risk probability of natural disasters. In the flood disaster's study, our methodology achieved a better probability of detection of high risk, a better precision, and a better ROC area compared with other methods, using both cross‐validation and prediction of catastrophic risk based on historic data. Our results suggest that BN is a good alternative for risk assessment and as a decision tool in the management of catastrophic risk.     

A Quality Risk Management Model Approach for Cell Therapy Manufacturing

International regulatory authorities view risk management as an essential production need for the development of innovative, somatic cell‐based therapies in regenerative medicine. The available risk management guidelines, however, provide little guidance on specific risk analysis approaches and procedures applicable in clinical cell therapy manufacturing. This raises a number of problems. Cell manufacturing is a poorly automated process, prone to operator‐introduced variations, and affected by heterogeneity of the processed organs/tissues and lot‐dependent variability of reagent (e.g., collagenase) efficiency. In this study, the principal challenges faced in a cell‐based product manufacturing context (i.e., high dependence on human intervention and absence of reference standards for acceptable risk levels) are identified and addressed, and a risk management model approach applicable to manufacturing of cells for clinical use is described for the first time. The use of the heuristic and pseudo‐quantitative failure mode and effect analysis/failure mode and critical effect analysis risk analysis technique associated with direct estimation of severity, occurrence, and detection is, in this specific context, as effective as, but more efficient than, the analytic hierarchy process. Moreover, a severity/occurrence matrix and Pareto analysis can be successfully adopted to identify priority failure modes on which to act to mitigate risks. The application of this approach to clinical cell therapy manufacturing in regenerative medicine is also discussed.     

李正学《毛宗岗小说批评研究》评析

对李正学的《毛宗岗小说批评研究》进行了较为深刻的评析,认为李正学的这部论著将理论性与思辨性贯穿全书始终,在动态中彰显了作者历史意识的通识观,并从现代学术的视野指出毛氏理论的不足,在当代毛评研究中可谓别具一格,独具机抒。     

基于企业视角下校企合作现状分析

校企合作促进了学生实践能力的提高，也缓解了学校的资金紧张问题。本文从企业的角度出发，总结了校企合作对企业发展的意义，分析了在校企合作中企业态度消极的原因，提出了解决校企合作问题的措施，希望能够促进校企合作的长远发展。     

Who by Accident? The Social Morphology of Car Accidents

Prior studies in the sociology of accidents have shown that different social groups have different rates of accident involvement. This study extends those studies by implementing Bourdieu's relational perspective of social space to systematically explore the homology between drivers’ social characteristics and their involvement in specific types of motor vehicle accident. Using a large database that merges official Israeli road‐accident records with socioeconomic data from two censuses, this research maps the social order of road accidents through multiple correspondence analysis. Extending prior studies, the results show that different social groups indeed tend to be involved in motor vehicle accidents of different types and severity. For example, we find that drivers from low socioeconomic backgrounds are overinvolved in severe accidents with fatal outcomes. The new findings reported here shed light on the social regularity of road accidents and expose new facets in the social organization of death.     

《资本论》方法论与西方经济学方法论的比较

从哲学基础、西方经济学方法论的演变过程、科学抽象法与现象抽象法、资本主义生产方式的批判学说与辩护学说四个方面阐述了《资本论》方法论与西方经济学方法论的不同；又从都注重实证分析法与规范分析法的结合和在制度分析方法上也有交叉阐述了两者的共同点。     

马克思主义女权主义：概念、发展与意义

作为西方马克思主义研究中的一个主要流派，马克思主义女权主义概念的提出和运用有一定的历史背景。虽然在对待马克思主义理论方面，当代马克思主义女权主义经常是各取所需，为我所用。但在基本逻辑和特征方面有着共同性。我们要在坚持马克思主义基本原理的前提下，大胆借鉴和吸收他们所提供的对于社会主义运动和妇女运动具有开拓和指导作用的理论材料和研究观点，在新形势下更好地继承和发展马克思主义。