Small-sample results for maximum-likelihood estimation in branching processes

In this article, small sample properties of the maximum-likelihood estimator (m.l.e.) for the offspring distribution (pk) and its mean m are considered in the context of the simple branching process. A representation theorem is given for the m.l.e. of (Pk) from which the m.l.e. of m is obtained. The case where p0 + p1 + p2 = 1 is studied in detail: numerical results are given for the exact bias of these estimators as a function of the age of the process; a curve fitting analysis expresses the bias of m? as a function of the mean and the variance of the offspring distribution and finally an “approximate m.l.e.” for (pk) is given.     

Assessing the Reliability and Validity of the Jump$tart Survey of Financial Literacy

Financial education represents an area of popular interest, owing largely to the Jump$tart surveys of financial literacy. However, while the surveys represent indicators of financial knowledge among high school seniors, these measures have not been statistically validated. This article describes an assessment of the surveys reliability (internal consistency), and validity. It reports a moderately high degree of consistency overall, however, discloses low to moderate internal consistencies among subscales. It also finds significant response differences to one quarter of comparable items between surveys. The researcher observes challenges to affirming the surveys validity and offers statistics suggesting social bias among survey items. He calls for further research into measures of financial literacy.The author appreciates the guidance and support of Dr. Duane Giannangelo, Dr. Jean Steiz, Dr. Lou Franceschini, and Dr. Steven Ross.     

LOGISTIC REGRESSION COMPARED TO NORMAL DISCRIMINATION FOR NON-NORMAL POPULATIONS'

An investigation is undertaken of the logistic regression procedure for estimating the posterior probability of an object belonging to one of two populations. The asymptotic bias and mean square error associated with the procedure are derived for univariate populations whose distributions satisfy the general Day-Kerridge model for which the logistic form is valid for the posterior probability. These properties are compared with those of the normal discrimination method based on the classical assumption of normal populations with common variances. The asymptotic relative efficiency of logistic regression is considered on the basis of asymptotic mean square error.     

社会支配取向量表在中国的信度和效度研究

本研究尝试修订西方的社会支配取向量表.359名大学本科生参与了研究.结果表明,社会支配取向量表修订后包含14个项目,量表具有较好的内部一致性、重测信度和一定的预测效度;中国被试社会支配取向得分普遍比西方的高;中文修订量表不同于西方的单因素或者双因素结构,它包括4个因素,即"反对群体平等"、"赞同优势群体的支配性"、"赞同劣势群体的较低地位"、"赞同维持等级差异".     

社会性管制问题研究:理论焦点与制度变迁

本文系统地分析了社会性管制的内涵,解释其理论焦点,梳理了以美国为代表的国外社会性管制制度的发展,考察了中国社会性管制制度的变迁,认为社会性管制的效果不仅事关百姓的民生问题,更是直接影响社会的稳定与和谐。     

沃克“女性主义”理论视野下的黑人男性霸权书写

在艾丽丝·沃克看来,黑人男性对同族的黑人女性的性别压迫是对白人主宰下的男性霸权势力的丑陋复制,其与种族歧视和阶级压迫一起,制约着黑人女性主体性精神的发展,并使黑人女性处于各种话语和权利的边缘地位。艾丽丝·沃克在其创作实践中,从"女性主义"的理论视角出发,修正了种族歧视话语和性别主义话语,并倡导两性间的和谐,以使黑人民族走向解放之路。     

民企竞争贷款过程中行为扭曲的经济学分析

现有的融资制度下,国有企业相对于民营企业具有融资上的制度禀赋优势,这导致了民营企业在与国有企业竞争贷款资源过程中的扭曲行为。本文运用两期模型证明了这一命题,并且认为,如果不提高贷款机构对借款人使用贷款行为的监督能力,单纯强调政企分开并不能解决民营企业竞争贷款过程中的行为扭曲问题。     

The Recursive Kernel Distribution Function Estimator Based on Negatively and Positively Associated Sequences

Let {X _j , j ≥ 1} be a strictly stationary negatively or positively associated sequence of real valued random variables with unknown distribution function F(x). On the basis of the random variables {X _j , j ≥ 1}, we propose a smooth recursive kernel-type estimate of F(x), and study asymptotic bias, quadratic-mean consistency and asymptotic normality of the recursive kernel-type estimator under suitable conditions.     

On the Bias of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator for the Two-Parameter Lomax Distribution

The Lomax (Pareto II) distribution has found wide application in a variety of fields. We analyze the second-order bias of the maximum likelihood estimators of its parameters for finite sample sizes, and show that this bias is positive. We derive an analytic bias correction which reduces the percentage bias of these estimators by one or two orders of magnitude, while simultaneously reducing relative mean squared error. Our simulations show that this performance is very similar to that of a parametric bootstrap correction based on a linear bias function. Three examples with actual data illustrate the application of our bias correction.     

An improved estimator of omission rate for census count: With particular reference to India

ABSTRACT

Every large census operation should undergo evaluation programs to find the sources and extent of inherent coverage errors. In this article, we briefly discuss the statistical methodology to estimate the omission rate in Indian census using dual-system estimation (DSE) technique. We have explicitly studied the correlation bias factor involved in the estimate, its extent, and consequences. A new potential source of bias in the estimate is identified and discussed. During the survey, more efficient enumerators compared to the census operations are appointed, and this fact may inflate the dependency between two lists and lead to a significant bias. Some examples are given to demonstrate this argument in various plausible situations. We have suggested one simple and flexible approach which can control this bias. Our proposed estimator can efficiently overcome the potential bias by achieving the desired degree of accuracy (almost unbiased) with relatively higher efficiency. Overall improvements in the results are explored through simulation study on different populations.