Precursors of Young Women's Family Formation Pathways

We used latent class analysis to create family formation pathways for women between the ages of 18 and 23. Input variables included cohabitation, marriage, parenthood, full-time employment, and attending school. Data (n = 2,290) came from Waves I and III of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). The analysis revealed seven latent pathways: college-no family formation (29%), high school-no family formation (19%), cohabitation without children (15%), married mothers (14%), single mothers (10%), cohabiting mothers (8%), and inactive (6%). Three sets of variables distinguished between the groups: personal and social resources in adolescence, family socioeconomic resources and adolescent academic achievement, and conservative values and behavior in adolescence.     

Democratic transitions and the semiperiphery of the world-economy

The dramatic global transition to democracy of the last decade reveals important systematic patterns. Using recent contributions to world-systems theory, this study examines the relationship between political regime changes and the position of nations in the world-economy over the last two decades, to argue that democratic transitions have been centered among semiperipheral nations. The study also found a strong relationship between the structure of the labor force and the global distribution of democratic institutions, but a weak relationship between the structure of the labor force and the timing of transitions in the semiperiphery. Overall, the findings suggest that world-systemic categories provide a useful vantage point to distinguish global trends from the specific characteristics of individual nations, thereby allowing for greater analytical precision in identifying the crucial causal relations shaping transitions from dictatorship to democracy.     

Separations,Reconciliations, and Living Apart in Cohabiting and Marital Unions

Using data from a panel study of White young adults containing complete marital and cohabiting union histories from age 15 through 31, our goal is to track and compare the paths along which young adults arrange and time the entries and exits from marital and cohabiting unions. We focus on the incidence, duration, and outcomes of 2 dimensions that embrace residential separation: (a) separations that relate to discord in the relationship and (b) living apart from the partner or spouse for reasons other than discord. Our results show that union trajectories are dynamic and involve a heterogeneous and multidirectional array of transitions. We also find consistent differences supporting the idea that marital unions are more stable and durable than cohabiting unions.     

Nonparametric Inference for a Partially Observed Compartmental Process

Methods of nonparametric inference are proposed for a process with two transient and three absorbing states. It is assumed that the time of transitions between the transient states are unobservable. One area of applications is in epidemiology where the transient states correspond to healthy and ill, while the absorbing states correspond to types of death. It is the onset of illness which is not observable. An estimate is given for a cumulative hazard rate between the transient states, the exit hazard rates are estimated at a specific point in time and a statistic for comparing exit rates from the transient states is given.     

Predicting successful and unsuccessful transitions from school to work by using sequence methods

Policy makers recognize the importance of identifying early young people who are likely to end up jobless on entry to the adult labour market. This paper uses sequence techniques to characterize 712 young peoples' transitions from school to work into `types', with jobless types interpreted as unsuccessful transitions. A logit model is estimated for transition type using a collection of static individual, family and school characteristics. This allows us to identify which young people are most likely to experience unsuccessful transitions into the adult labour market. Policy makers might use such information to target social and educational policy more effectively to promote social inclusion.     

房产养老寿险业务中老年人健康状况评价的不完全信息博弈

随着老龄化社会的快速到来,养老已成为一个重大的社会问题.基于"以房养老"理念创设的房产养老寿险这一新型金融产品,将对解决养老保障的资金筹措问题提供全新的思路.然而由于以房养老事项的复杂性与行为的不确定性,使得本产品的推出困难重重.要防止业务开办中因卖方身体健康状况评价的信息不对称而引发的种种风险,必须从人为提高掩饰成本和改变博弈顺序两个角度,加强对本金融产品条款的设计.     

延迟退休的影响效果分析

近年来．延迟退休的问题引发了学术界和社会大众的广泛讨论。本文将研究视点放在提高退休年龄对养老金支付和劳动力就业的影响效果方面。通过构建不同的计量模型,实际估算了延迟退休对养老保险基金收支变化的影响．以及对劳动力市场的就业挤出效应。结果发现：提高法定退休年龄对养老金缺口存在一定的补偿效应。但从短期来看效果有限;而对就业总量的确将产生挤出效应。并发现,老年人就业岗位与青年人就业岗位之间存在替代性,也就是说延迟退休将严重影响青年人的就业。因此建议政府要慎重考虑并只能在适当的时机推动延迟退休。     

以房养老可行吗?——基于产权理论的视角

国务院加快发展养老服务业的若干意见引发社会对以房养老的关注,本文就以房养老是否可行这一问题,从产权理论视角分析认为,以房养老实质上是产权交易行为,能够优化老人财产的配置,不仅是可行的而且具有多方面的现实意义,但实践中还需克服几个问题。推进以房养老,应总结前期试点经验与教训,实行渐进式制度创新,合理界定政府、市场、社会组织的职责,合力培育养老服务这一新兴产业。     

Student resistance and the democratic transition: student politics in Senegal 1999–2005

University students participated in the democratic transition in Senegal that, throughout the 1990s, saw student activists across the continent advocate for political change. This paper examines the role students played in the election of the new government in Senegal in 2000 and the years that followed. Many student activists in Senegal argued that they were responsible for the changement politique, that saw the first defeat of the ruling Socialist Party since independence in 1960 and the victory of Abdoulaye Wade – ‘papa sopi’ (‘the father of change’). The paper considers the relationship of students to the new governments. It argues that students in Senegal, and across the continent, have played a vital role in political transformations, though not in circumstances chosen by them.     

Costs of Extending the Noncontributory Pension Program for Elderly: The Mexican Case

Population aging coupled with high poverty rates among older persons and a lack of access to social-security benefits or traditional support systems have led governments in low and middle-income countries to introduce non-contributory pension programs for the elderly. This article reviews a non-contributory pension program introduced in Mexico in 2007 that has since expanded greatly. We use a variety of sources to estimate current and future costs of this program.