“His” and “her” marriage expectations: Determinants and consequences

This article uses couple‐level data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N= 2,263) to investigate factors associated with unmarried parents’ expectations about marriage and the association between their expectations and subsequent union transitions. In most couples, both partners expect to marry, and their shared expectations are the strongest predictor of marriage and separation following their child's birth. Although men's expectations are somewhat more consequential for union transitions, marriage and relationship stability are more likely when at least one parent expects to marry. Factors such as children from previous relationships, distrust, conflict, and shared activities are also associated with union transitions. Findings about how expectations and other factors relate to marriage and separation may inform new marriage promotion initiatives.     

State of Inertia: Psychological Preparation of Single Australian and UK Baby Boomer Women for Retirement Housing Change

The transition into retirement is an important life phase that presents significant challenges in respect to well-being, lifestyle, and consumption choices. This article examines the consumption context of housing after retirement, in particular for the low-resourced cohort of single baby boomer women. Utilizing an extended Theory of Planned Behavior model, we examine the relationship between intention and actual behavior, in this case financial advice seeking, as an important component of the psychological preparedness of single female baby boomer women. Our analysis showed both Australian and UK single baby boomer women display different behaviors in terms of seeking advice and their mental preparedness to adjust to a change in their living arrangements. The findings are discussed in terms of their implications for policy and further research.     

延迟退休改革对辽宁省劳动力就业的影响

我国老龄化问题日益严重,延迟退休改革方案出台迫在眉睫。对辽宁省人口老龄化特征进行深入分析,运用模型构建方法预测辽宁省未来人口老龄化的发展趋势,指出延迟退休会给辽宁省劳动力就业带来的改变。将辽宁省的人口情况和危机全面呈现,体现延迟退休改革对辽宁省劳动力就业至关重要的作用,为辽宁省积极应对延迟退休改革做好支撑工作。     

Creating SPOTs for Successful Aging: Strengthening the Case for Developing University-Based Retirement Communities Using Social-Physical Place Over Time Theory

Five elements are cited as being critical for a university-based retirement communities’ (UBRCs’) success: proximity to the university, two-directional programming, continuing care, a financial link to the university, and a minimum 10% resident connection to the university. We illustrate these criteria using examples from existing UBRCs. The comparisons are then contextualized in the broader framework of Social-Physical Place Over Time (SPOT) theory. SPOT theory focuses on the interactions between social and physical places among older adults. By analyzing the intersections between SPOT theory and UBRC criteria, we identify additional criteria to improve the definition of a UBRC: transportation support and facilitating activity. UBRCs offer value because they provide the social and physical place where older adults can live when they retire, thereby improving changes in individual agency and belongingness needs, which are key tenets of SPOT theory. The integration of the UBRC criteria and the SPOT theory framework builds on this relatively new meta-theory in environmental gerontology. SPOT theory effectively highlights how UBRCs benefit older adults and the community; UBRCs provide significant benefits not only to older adult residents, but also to the university communities that house them.     

Physician Case-by-Case Assignment and Participation in Medicare

This article uses recent experiences from the Medigap market to draw conclusions about the advisability of alternative methods of regulating the market for long-term care insurance. The analysis is based in part on interviews of state insurance regulators, insurance companies, and interest-group representatives. The authors conclude that some regulation of the market is appropriate, but that the structure and extent of regulation found in the Medigap market would likely be inappropriate for the long-term care insurance market at this time.     

Therapeutic Hypothermia: Quantification of the Transition of Core Body Temperature Using the Flexible Mixture Bent‐Cable Model for Longitudinal Data

Hypothermia which is induced by reducing core body temperature is a therapeutic tool used to prevent brain damage resulting from physical trauma. However, all physiological systems begin to slow down due to hypothermia and this can result in increased risk of mortality. Therefore quantification of the transition of core body temperature to early hypothermia is of great clinical interest. Conceptually core body temperature may exhibit an either gradual or abrupt transition. Bent‐cable regression is an appealing statistical tool to model such data due to the model's flexibility and readily interpretable regression coefficients. It handles more flexibly models that traditionally have been handled by low‐order polynomial models (for gradual transition) or piecewise linear changepoint models (for abrupt change). We consider a rat model to quantify the temporal trend of core body temperature primarily to address the question: What is the critical time point associated with a breakdown in the compensatory mechanisms following the start of hypothermia therapy? To this end, we develop a Bayesian modelling framework for bent‐cable regression of longitudinal data to simultaneously account for gradual and abrupt transitions. Our analysis reveals that: (i) about 39% of rats exhibit a gradual transition in core body temperature; (ii) the critical time point is approximately the same regardless of transition type; and (iii) both transition types show a significant increase of core body temperature followed by a significant decrease.     

农民工社会养老保险制度实际运行中的困境及出路

深圳市农民工参加社会养老保险问题调查显示,当前农民工群体参加社会养老的愿望强烈,但由于多元养老保险模式、农民工自身的特点以及我国现阶段的经济发展水平等原因,导致了农民工社会养老保险制度在实际运行中遇到了参保率低、保障效果差、转移衔接不易、企业缴费难等困境,为此,必须进一步提高农民工的参保意识,兼顾高收入农民工的需要,解决好退休农民工的待遇公平问题及养老关系转移接续难题,明确企业的法律责任。     

Anticipated and Experienced Changes in Activities After Husbands Retire

Abstract

As an element of anticipatory socialization, ability to predict future roles accurately may impact subsequent adaptation. Part of a larger study of retirement and marital quality, this longitudinal research examined husbands' and wives' (n = 61 couples) anticipations of change (more/less/same) in six individual and joint activities following husbands' retirement, and compared them with couples' reported experiences a year after husbands had retired. With the exception of household tasks, continuity in levels of activity from pre- to post-retirement was greater than couples had anticipated. Cross-classification of responses at baseline and Time 2 indicated only modest congruence between anticipated and experienced change in activities. Accuracy of anticipation was not related significantly to retirement satisfaction as hypothesized, but direction of retirement-satisfaction mean scores, especially among wives, suggest that future testing would be warranted.     

Dealing with selection bias in educational transition models: The bivariate probit selection model

This paper proposes the bivariate probit selection model (BPSM) as an alternative to the traditional Mare model for analyzing educational transitions. The BPSM accounts for selection on unobserved variables by allowing for unobserved variables which affect the probability of making educational transitions to be correlated across transitions. We use simulated and real data to illustrate how the BPSM improves on the traditional Mare model in terms of correcting for selection bias and providing credible estimates of the effect of family background on educational success. We conclude that models which account for selection on unobserved variables and high-quality data are both required in order to estimate credible educational transition models.