处级女干部60周岁退休:从提案到政策

上世纪50年代初的男女不同龄退休政策,其初衷是保护妇女。然而60年之后,妇女状况发生根本性变化,该政策负面效应就显现出来。自1998年起,上海市妇联在信访接待和调查研究基础上,就女性退休年龄问题提出一系列提案,最终推动处级女干部60周岁退休政策的实施。现实证明,在某种程度上退休年龄问题事关妇女发展权的实现,应该从社会性别主流化战略的视角审视退休年龄政策;而关注不同妇女群体的利益诉求、维护妇女的合法权益,是妇联参与公共决策的最重要内容。     

世界主要社会主义国家领导人任职制度的历史考察

社会主义国家的第一代领导人在争取国家独立和民族解放的斗争中作出了巨大贡献,因而这些国家的第一代领导人基本上实行终身制。这是特殊历史条件下的选择,对于各社会主义国家政权的稳固和国民经济的发展都有裨益。1989年邓小平主动提出退休,进而确立了中国最高领导层内的退休制度。这有助于国际共产主义运动和世界社会主义事业重振旗鼓。     

Incidence-based estimates of life expectancy of the healthy for the UK: coherence between transition probabilities and aggregate life-tables

Summary.  Will the UK's aging population be fit and independent, or suffer from greater chronic ill health? Life expectancy of healthy people represents the expected number of years of healthy well-being that a life-table cohort would experience if age-specific rates of mortality and disability prevailed throughout the cohort's lifetime. Robust estimation of this life expectancy is thus essential for examining whether additional years of life are spent in good health and whether life expectancy is increasing faster than the decline of rates of disability. The paper examines a means of generating estimates of life expectancy for people who are healthy and unhealthy for the UK that are consistent with exogenous population mortality data. The method takes population transition matrices and adjusts these in a statistically coherent way so as to render them consistent with aggregate life-tables.     

Work Incentive and Labor Force Participation after the Senior Citizens Freedom to Work Act of 2000

A larger share of individuals 65 and older have been staying in or returning to the labor force since the late 1980s. Because Social Security was changed from providing incentives for earlier withdrawal from the labor force to providing incentives to remain in the labor market longer, we can expect to find a relationship between the Retirement Earnings Test removal and labor force participation. The findings have implications for welfare policy such that they can increase the portion of older adults who work.     

我国基本养老保险水平地区差异的影响因素之实证分析

文章首先对2006年我国各地区养老保险水平的相关指标按东、中、西部三大区域划分做了区域内外的差异比较;其次,从经济、政策和人口因素三方面进行分析,同时提取主要的影响因素作变量,构建了多元线性回归方程,并根据2001~2006年的数据用Eviews5.0进行了逐年回归;最后,根据回归的实证结果提出相关政策建议。     

Annealed importance sampling

Simulated annealing—moving from a tractable distribution to a distribution of interest via a sequence of intermediate distributions—has traditionally been used as an inexact method of handling isolated modes in Markov chain samplers. Here, it is shown how one can use the Markov chain transitions for such an annealing sequence to define an importance sampler. The Markov chain aspect allows this method to perform acceptably even for high-dimensional problems, where finding good importance sampling distributions would otherwise be very difficult, while the use of importance weights ensures that the estimates found converge to the correct values as the number of annealing runs increases. This annealed importance sampling procedure resembles the second half of the previously-studied tempered transitions, and can be seen as a generalization of a recently-proposed variant of sequential importance sampling. It is also related to thermodynamic integration methods for estimating ratios of normalizing constants. Annealed importance sampling is most attractive when isolated modes are present, or when estimates of normalizing constants are required, but it may also be more generally useful, since its independent sampling allows one to bypass some of the problems of assessing convergence and autocorrelation in Markov chain samplers.     

Organizational Uncertainty and Labor Contracts in China's Economic Transition

Lifetime employment was a cornerstone of the Chinese socialist system constructed under Mao. In this system, organizations served the function of social security, and as a result, many organizations were overburdened with bloated work forces and retirees that drew from organizational coffers well into old age. Labor contracts fundamentally alter this system, as they allow firms to end the socialist institution of lifetime employment. Yet there is significant variation on the institutionalization of labor contracts in organizations. Based on a sample of 81 firms in industrial Shanghai, I show that organizations that are experiencing uncertainty in the economic transition are more likely to institutionalize labor contracts on an organizationwide basis. There are two types of organizational uncertainty in the economic transition: economic uncertainty and administrative uncertainty. In cases of economic uncertainty, firms that lost money in 1990 and firms that are burdened by large forces of retired workers are more likely to place their workers on labor contracts. In the case of administrative uncertainty, firms that are at the highest levels of the industrial hierarchy are also significantly more likely to place their workers on labor contracts. Although these upper level firms were the most protected under the command economy, they are being forced to handle the greatest among the responsibilities in the economic transition, and as a result, they experience the greatest sense of being set adrift by the state.     

国外关于应对人口老龄化的观点及措施简介

本文从理论和实践两个方面介绍了国外关于应对人口老龄化的政策以及措施,指出人口老龄化政策关键要适合本国的实际情况,才能起到好的效果。     

Measuring resetting of brain dynamics at epileptic seizures: application of global optimization and spatial synchronization techniques

Epileptic seizures are manifestations of intermittent spatiotemporal transitions of the human brain from chaos to order. Measures of chaos, namely maximum Lyapunov exponents (STL _max ), from dynamical analysis of the electroencephalograms (EEGs) at critical sites of the epileptic brain, progressively converge (diverge) before (after) epileptic seizures, a phenomenon that has been called dynamical synchronization (desynchronization). This dynamical synchronization/desynchronization has already constituted the basis for the design and development of systems for long-term (tens of minutes), on-line, prospective prediction of epileptic seizures. Also, the criterion for the changes in the time constants of the observed synchronization/desynchronization at seizure points has been used to show resetting of the epileptic brain in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), a phenomenon that implicates a possible homeostatic role for the seizures themselves to restore normal brain activity. In this paper, we introduce a new criterion to measure this resetting that utilizes changes in the level of observed synchronization/desynchronization. We compare this criterion’s sensitivity of resetting with the old one based on the time constants of the observed synchronization/desynchronization. Next, we test the robustness of the resetting phenomena in terms of the utilized measures of EEG dynamics by a comparative study involving STL _max , a measure of phase (φ _max ) and a measure of energy (E) using both criteria (i.e. the level and time constants of the observed synchronization/desynchronization). The measures are estimated from intracranial electroencephalographic (iEEG) recordings with subdural and depth electrodes from two patients with focal temporal lobe epilepsy and a total of 43 seizures. Techniques from optimization theory, in particular quadratic bivalent programming, are applied to optimize the performance of the three measures in detecting preictal entrainment. It is shown that using either of the two resetting criteria, and for all three dynamical measures, dynamical resetting at seizures occurs with a significantly higher probability (α=0.05) than resetting at randomly selected non-seizure points in days of EEG recordings per patient. It is also shown that dynamical resetting at seizures using time constants of STL _max synchronization/desynchronization occurs with a higher probability than using the other synchronization measures, whereas dynamical resetting at seizures using the level of synchronization/desynchronization criterion is detected with similar probability using any of the three measures of synchronization. These findings show the robustness of seizure resetting with respect to measures of EEG dynamics and criteria of resetting utilized, and the critical role it might play in further elucidation of ictogenesis, as well as in the development of novel treatments for epilepsy.     

Back at the Crossroads: The Slippery Fish of Australian Retirement Income Policy

Australia's retirement income arrangements had reached a policy crossroad by the early 1980s. Not unlike the proverbial slippery fish, the goals and roles of its constituent elements were very difficult to grasp. The ensuing reforms of the 1980s and 1990s brought increasing coherence to these arrangements. Some of the more recent changes, however, have once again introduced policy slipperiness through creating a system that is at odds with the intent of the earlier reform efforts. Indeed, Australia's retirement income arrangements have morphed into a system whose function is no longer simply to protect workers from the loss of earned income arising from retirement. The ‘zenith’ of this situation was reached in July 2007 when the major changes in superannuation announced in the 2006 federal budget took effect. Thus, Australia is once again back at a policy crossroad as far as her retirement income arrangements are concerned.