“做实做小”个人账户对个人养老金水平的影响

 本文引入养老保险金记账利率和工资增长率，测算了在不同初始缴费工资和缴费年限条件下实施“做实做小”个人账户政策对参保人养老金水平的影响。通过分析得出：1.政策调整后，养老金给付结构较调整前更能体现缴费积累与养老金水平的内在经济联系； 2.政策调整后个人养老金水平普遍不如政策调整前的水平，政策调整后养老金水平高于政策调整前均出现在缴费年限较长以及初始缴费工资较高的情况下；3.政策调整对不同的参保人影响不同。政策调整加大了低初始缴费工资人群的生活压力；拉大了男、女职工退休养老金的差距，不利于当前社会男女平等和贫富分化问题的解决。     

Changes in Support From Confidants,Children, and Friends Following Widowhood

This paper examines the extent to which widowhood affects changes in (a) the availability of a confidant, (b) emotional support from children, and (c) emotional support from friends/relatives both 6 and 18 months after spousal loss. Analyses are based on data from the Changing Lives of Older Couples, a prospective study of 1,532 married individuals aged 65 and older. Compared to married persons, widowed persons are less likely to have a confidant, yet they receive greater support from children, friends, and relatives, controlling for support prior to widowhood. The findings suggest that, although close social relationships may remain stable in the course of normal aging, stressful events such as widowhood may bring forth both losses and gains in social support.     

Labor Force Transitions after Childbirth Among Five Birth Cohorts in Sweden

This article describes part-time work in Sweden and performs a multivariate analysis of the choice between part-time work, full-time work, and other activities in connection with childbirth among five birth cohorts of women. Results show that the combination of market work and family is common, but heterogeneity exists among women in the sample analyzed. Previous labor force participation proves important when it comes to returning to the labor market. The extent of previous labor force participation is also important, regardless of sector of, when it comes to the return to part-time or full-time work. Career orientation and social background also prove significant, some indicators probably working indirectly through higher education and different preferences.     

小城镇建设与农民增收

加快小城镇建设，保证农民充分就业，有效分流农村富余劳动力是农民增收的基本保证。要着力推动小城镇的发展进程，从根本上解决“三农问题”，首先应着力改革现行的户籍制度，以农村社会养老保险制度为重点的社会保障制度来取代传统的土地保障制度，为小城镇建设创造良好的政策和制度环境。     

养老计划倾向与商业养老保险需求——基于CFPS数据的实证研究

养老计划倾向作为一种行为因素，可以通过提高风险认知与管理意图，增加家庭对商业养老保险的需求。利用中国家庭追踪调查数据实证分析养老计划倾向与商业养老保险参保之间的关系，结果显示：（1）计算过养老费用的家庭会系统性地提高参保概率，计算过养老费用与否引致的参保概率差异占样本平均参保水平的40%以上；（2）养老费用计算结果也体现出逆向选择性，预计养老费用越高的家庭越倾向于参与商业养老保险；（3）养老计划倾向还会提高家庭对除商业养老保险外其他类型商业保险的需求，从而提高家庭整体商业保险参与水平。因此，提高家庭的养老计划倾向能有效促进商业养老保险市场，甚至整个商业保险市场的发展。     

中国农村养老的现状与思考

分析了中国农村养老的现状 ,探讨了农村养老存在的问题与面临的挑战 ,提出了农村养老仍然要以家庭养老为主 ,大力发展农村经济 ,坚持党在农村的土地政策 ,积极推进农村社会养老保险 ,因地制宜采取多种办法发展好农村养老事业。     

The Timing of Entry Into Fatherhood in Young, At-Risk Men

Timing of first fatherhood was examined in a sample of 206 at-risk, predominantly White men, followed prospectively for 17 years. An event history analysis was used to test a model wherein antisocial behavior, the contextual and familial factors that may contribute to the development of antisocial behavior, and common correlates of such behavior, including academic failure, substance use, and early initiation of sexual behaviors, lead both directly and indirectly to an early transition to fatherhood. Having a mother who was younger at first birth, low family SES, poor academic skills, failure to use condoms, and being in a cohabitating or marital relationship predicted entry into fatherhood. Implications of the findings for prevention of and intervention with early fathering are discussed.     

延退政策之信赖保护原则适用

这些年延迟退休政策一直在我国饱受争议。从社会经济发展趋势来看,延退政策的推行是大势所趋。但是,从我国的行政法治建设来看,我国目前并不适合立即推行延退政策。延退政策是一个需要科学研究、综合考量、审慎推行的公共政策。在如此重大的行政决策制定与推行过程中,我们还需要从行政法上的信赖保护原则出发,认真考量延退政策的正当性问题。     

High-order extensions of the Double Chain Markov Model

The Double Chain Markov Model is a fully Markovian model for the representation of time-series in random environments. In this article, we show that it can handle transitions of high-order between both a set of observations and a set of hidden states. In order to reduce the number of parameters, each transition matrix can be replaced by a Mixture Transition Distribution model. We provide a complete derivation of the algorithms needed to compute the model. Three applications, the analysis of a sequence of DNA, the song of the wood pewee, and the behavior of young monkeys show that this model is of great interest for the representation of data that can be decomposed into a finite set of patterns.     

Student Veteran Career Transition Readiness,Career Adaptability,and Academic and Life Satisfaction

Student military veterans pursuing higher education present with unique career development needs. To better understand these needs, the authors conducted an exploratory study to examine career transition readiness, career adaptability, academic satisfaction, and satisfaction with life among 134 student military veterans (34 women, 100 men). Results indicated statistically significant positive correlations between satisfaction with life scores and scores on measures of career transition readiness and career adaptability. Regression results demonstrated that career transition readiness and career adaptability predicted satisfaction with life, but not academic satisfaction. The findings suggest a need to understand the complexity of student veterans’ career and academic development in both research and practice.