A statistical procedure for representing state fragility and transition paths

State fragility is a concept that entered the political discourse in the last decades producing remarkable implications for aid allocation and international policies. The operationalization of this concept has generated a number of composite indices to produce rankings of fragile states. However, the temporal dimension of the driving forces leading to fragility has been rather neglected. This article discusses a statistical procedure that helps to represent the global fragility of a country and the path that a country has followed or will follow in the future when possibly entering into (or escaping from) a fragility condition. Specifically, multiple factor analysis is applied to depict vulnerable and weak countries, and to identify the fundamental forces that determine their overall fragility. Moreover, the trajectories of countries along the years are estimated using partial factor scores. Finally, the path of each country is predicted by means of parsimonious regression models, based on a reduced set of explanatory variables, and according to scenarios elaborated from available international outlooks.     

Consumption Over the Life Cycle

This paper estimates a structural model of optimal life‐cycle consumption expenditures in the presence of realistic labor income uncertainty. We employ synthetic cohort techniques and Consumer Expenditure Survey data to construct average age‐profiles of consumption and income over the working lives of typical households across different education and occupation groups. The model fits the profiles quite well. In addition to providing reasonable estimates of the discount rate and risk aversion, we find that consumer behavior changes strikingly over the life cycle. Young consumers behave as buffer‐stock agents. Around age 40, the typical household starts accumulating liquid assets for retirement and its behavior mimics more closely that of a certainty equivalent consumer. Our methodology provides a natural decomposition of saving and wealth into its precautionary and life‐cycle components.     

延长退休年龄影响人力资本的传导机制研究

本文通过考察二元劳动力市场和两种就业形式从而确定延长退休的作用对象,继而探索性地构建延长退休影响人力资本的传导机制。以影响人力资本存量的相关因素为媒介,延长退休分别对人力资本数量和人力资本质量产生作用,其对人力资本质量的影响又从个体、结构、资源配置效率、经济社会公平以及相关制度机制等方面表现出来。延长退休年龄的实施是一个牵一发而动全身的系统工程,应统筹兼顾,实现人口、经济和社会的全面协调可持续发展。     

我国弹性退休年龄制度设计——基于美国相关制度的实践

弹性退休制度允许劳动者自由选择是否工作以及是否领取养老金。这一制度有着诸多优点。从美国的实践情况来看,该制度既鼓励了劳动者多劳多得,又使社保基金增收节支;既遏制了养老金领取者的贫富差距扩大,又确保老龄劳动者与年轻人展开公平竞争。当前,我国可以对达到退休年龄以后继续工作的劳动者采取中性政策,对延迟领取养老金的劳动者予以鼓励。     

Asymmetries in the opportunity structure. Intergenerational mobility trends in Europe

It remains unclear whether social mobility is increasing in the advanced nations. The answer may depend on mobility patterns within very recent birth cohorts. We use the inter-generational module in the 2005 EU-SILC which allows us to include more recent cohorts. Comparing across two Nordic and three Continental European countries, we estimate inter-generational mobility trends for sons both indirectly, via social origin effects on educational attainment, and directly in terms of adult income attainment. In line with other studies we find substantially more mobility in Scandinavia, but also that traditionally less mobile societies, like Spain, are moving towards greater equality. We focus particularly on non-linear relations. Most interestingly, we reveal evident asymmetries in the process of equalizing life chances, in Denmark. The disadvantages associated with low social class origins have largely disappeared, but the advantages related to privileged origins persist.     

Mechanisms of the Effect of Involuntary Retirement on Older Adults’ Self-Rated Health and Mental Health

This study examined mechanisms of the effect of involuntary retirement on self-rated health and mental health among adults aged 50 or older. Using two waves of the Health and Retirement Study (2006 and 2010), we selected a sample of 1,195 individuals working for pay at baseline who responded to a lifestyle questionnaire in both waves. Regression-based path analyses were conducted to test the mediating effects of financial control, positive and negative family relationships, and social integration on the relationship between involuntary retirement and self-rated health and mental health. Results of mediation analyses indicated that transition to involuntary retirement was directly negatively associated with subsequent self-rated health and indirectly negatively associated with mental health via perception of less financial control. Voluntary retirement was indirectly positively associated with both self-rated and mental health via perception of more financial control. No significant direct or indirect effects of retirement were found when retirement was measured with an aggregate measure without specifying its voluntariness. Findings emphasize the importance of specifying the voluntariness of retirement and recognizing the heterogeneity in the mechanisms of involuntary and voluntary retirement.     

采掘业企业资产弃置义务负债确认计提的国际比较研究

以英国和澳大利亚的煤炭、金属矿和石油天然气行业上市公司为IASB样本,以美国和加拿大的同行业公司为FASB样本,分行业与中国的公司进行比较,分析采掘业企业在资产弃置义务负债确认计提方面的差异。研究发现,中国除石油天然气行业与国际同行接轨外,煤炭和金属矿采掘业企业在资产弃置义务负债确认计提上均存在着严重不足。研究结果表明,中国资产弃置义务相关准则自身的问题、投资者保护与环境规制强度的不足,制约了中国企业对资产弃置义务负债的确认,而较低的环境规制强度进一步影响到对资产弃置义务负债的计提。     

人口年龄结构变动下的最优退休年龄动态模型构建与应用——以陕西省为例

文章主要以社会福利最大化为基本前提,假定社会福利最大化条件下的退休年龄为最优平均退休年龄,通过建立人口年龄结构变动下的最优退休年龄动态模型,以陕西省人口数据和养老保险相关数据为基础,测算了社会福利最大化条件下的陕西省最优平均退休年龄。得出结论:满足社会福利最大化时,陕西省最优平均退休年龄将会从2010年的58.4岁,逐步提高到2020年的59.6岁,进而提高到2030年的61.3岁。     

美国联邦退休金制度:变迁、管理、启示

美国联邦退休金制度形成于20世纪60年代,目前已成为美国养老保险体系的一个重要支柱,其在资金筹集与运营、退休金计发以及管理责任分担方面的制度安排,启示着我国养老保险制度建设必将是一个渐进而复杂的过程。在这一过程中,养老保险的覆盖范围需不断扩大,养老保险基金运营需科学、规范,并要强化地方政府在养老保险管理中的主体责任。     

Health and Aging-in-Place: Implications for Community Practice

ABSTRACT

There is increasing interest in helping elders to remain independent in their homes. As the nation experiences the unprecedented growth among its oldest residents, public and private efforts are emerging to facilitate aging-in-place. However older people, particularly the oldest old, experience a myriad of issues impacting their health and ability to remain at home. This article presents the findings from a needs assessment of a Naturally Occurring Retirement Community (NORC) (n?=?114) that revealed multiple health-related issues among older people residing in high-need neighborhoods. The study utilized a holistic perspective of health to measure physical, mental, and social well-being among the older residents. Implications for community-based health interventions to enhance aging-in-place are discussed.