网络环境对财务风险预警系统的影响

近年来，随着网络在财务管理工作中的应用，财务风险发生了显著的变化。建立网络环境下的财务风险预警系统已经迫在眉睫。我国对这一领域的研究无论在理论上还是在实践上都较薄弱，财务预警管理也是我国企业迫切需要解决的问题。     

A Risk Analysis Model in Concurrent Engineering Product Development

Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three‐dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company.     

Nanotechnology Risk Communication Past and Prologue

Nanotechnologies operate at atomic, molecular, and macromolecular scales, at scales where matter behaves differently than at larger scales and quantum effects can dominate. Nanotechnologies have captured the imagination of science fiction writers as science, engineering, and industry have leapt to the challenge of harnessing them. Applications are proliferating. In contrast, despite recent progress the regulatory landscape is not yet coherent, and public awareness of nanotechnology remains low. This has led risk researchers and critics of current nanotechnology risk communication efforts to call for proactive strategies that do more than address facts, that include and go beyond the public participation stipulated by some government acts. A redoubling of nanotechnology risk communication efforts could enable consumer choice and informed public discourse about regulation and public investments in science and safety.     

Bisphenol A: How the Most Relevant Exposure Sources Contribute to Total Consumer Exposure

Bisphenol A (BPA) is an endocrine disrupting chemical that is found in human urine throughout industrial societies around the globe. Consumer exposure pathways to BPA include packaged food, household dust, air, and dental fillings. To date, information on the relative contribution of the different pathways to total consumer exposure is lacking, but is key for managing substance‐associated risks. We investigated the relative contributions of the pathways known to be most relevant for nine different consumer groups. Our results suggest that the most important pathways for infants and children are the use of polycarbonate (PC) baby bottles and for adults and teenagers the consumption of canned food. Dental surgery can also considerably contribute over a short time directly after the surgery. For infants fed with PC baby bottles with mean dose rates of 0.8 μg/kg_bw/d the highest exposure dose rate was calculated. This dose rate is far below the tolerable daily intake of 50 μg/kg_bw/d. However, it is of the same order of magnitude as recently reported concentrations that caused low‐dose health effects in rodents. We find a pattern of falling exposure levels with rising age that is supported by urinary concentrations of BPA available for selected consumer groups. Similarly, the exposure levels we predict are confirmed by the levels reported in these studies.     

企业法律风险管理国内文献研究综述

从法律风险在不同行业和不同企业类型的应用研究、不同管理领域中和不同视角下企业法律风险管理的研究以及研究方法方面等,对2004年以后国内学者公开发表的有关企业法律风险的主要文献进行了综述,分析现有文献研究中存在的问题并提出了进一步研究的方向。     

“风险社会”理论视角下城市基本公共服务供给机制研究——以厦门市为例

在风险社会的时代背景下,加强城市基本公共服务供给,保障基本公共服务供给效果,不仅能够预防各种风险的发生,也能在风险发生后将危害降至最低程度。同时,通过风险社会的视阀来研究城市基本公共服务供给机制问题,也有助于深化基本公共服务供给的研究,推进服务型政府建设。在总结、借鉴前人研究成果的基础上,结合风险社会理论,重新构建城市基本公共服务供给机制,进行相关制度设计,具有方法论的创新意义。     

Mapping Invasive Species Risks with Stochastic Models: A Cross-Border United States-Canada Application for Sirex noctilio Fabricius

Nonindigenous species have caused significant impacts to North American forests despite past and present international phytosanitary efforts. Though broadly acknowledged, the risks of pest invasions are difficult to quantify as they involve interactions between many factors that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales: the transmission of invading organisms via various pathways, their spread and establishment in new environments. Our study presents a stochastic simulation approach to quantify these risks and associated uncertainties through time in a unified fashion. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. We simulate new potential entries of S. noctilio as a stochastic process, based on recent volumes of marine shipments of commodities from countries where S. noctilio is established, as well as the broad dynamics of foreign marine imports. The results are then linked with a spatial model that simulates the spread of S. noctilio within the geographical distribution of its hosts (pines) while incorporating existing knowledge about its behavior in North American landscapes. Through replications, this approach yields a spatial representation of S. noctilio risks and uncertainties in a single integrated product. The approach should also be appealing to decisionmakers, since it accounts for projected flows of commodities that may serve as conduits for pest entry. Our 30-year forecasts indicate high establishment probability in Ontario, Quebec, and the northeastern United States, but further southward expansion of S. noctilio is uncertain, ultimately depending on the impact of recent international treatment standards for wood packing materials.     

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French Cold-Smoked Salmon: II. Risk Characterization

A model for the assessment of exposure to Listeria monocytogenes from cold-smoked salmon consumption in France was presented in the first of this pair of articles (Pouillot et al ., 2007, Risk Analysis, 27:683–700). In the present study, the exposure model output was combined with an internationally accepted hazard characterization model, adapted to the French situation, to assess the risk of invasive listeriosis from cold-smoked salmon consumption in France in a second-order Monte Carlo simulation framework. The annual number of cases of invasive listeriosis due to cold-smoked salmon consumption in France is estimated to be 307, with a very large credible interval ([10; 12,453]), reflecting data uncertainty. This uncertainty is mainly associated with the dose-response model. Despite the significant uncertainty associated with the predictions, this model provides a scientific base for risk managers and food business operators to manage the risk linked to cold-smoked salmon contaminated with L. monocytogenes. Under the modeling assumptions, risk would be efficiently reduced through a decrease in the prevalence of L. monocytogenes or better control of the last steps of the cold chain (shorter and/or colder storage during the consumer step), whereas reduction of the initial contamination levels of the contaminated products and improvement in the first steps of the cold chain do not seem to be promising strategies. An attempt to apply the recent risk-based concept of FSO (food safety objective) on this example underlines the ambiguity in practical implementation of the risk management metrics and the need for further elaboration on these concepts.     

中国企业海外资源并购中歧视性干预风险及其规避

无论是从国家利益还是企业发展的层面看,中国企业海外资源并购都是具有长远意义的战略选择.由于资源行业属于事关国计民生的战略性行业,无论是政府还是民众对于境外投资者始终带有一定的警惕性,因此,政治风险中的歧视性干预风险是中国企业海外资源并购过程中面临的最大、最不可预期的风险.中国企业应采取谋略巧妙地规避海外资源并购中歧视性干预风险,以使中国企业的海外资源并购之路走得更加稳健和踏实.     

风险社会与媒介表征

风险社会的形成与大众媒介表征密不可分:大众媒介通过拟态环境的构建,形成了公众的风险感知,促成了风险传播的蝴蝶效应.在此基础上,探讨媒介形成社会风险的三方面成因:价值层面上,媒介的社会整合功能不足,价值培养欠缺;制度层面上,公益节目欠缺,政府信息制度贯彻不力;内容层面上:网络媒介的风险长尾效应日渐突出.