多重身份的复合--论唐顺之对曾巩散文的评价

唐顺之作为一名笃诚的心学家、理学家，势必会从思想价值的角度对文学作品进行评价。同时他又是一个优秀的八股文名家、古文评点家，有时又会摆脱心学和理学的思维模式，从文学自身的角度考量创作。受此多重身份的复合影响，唐顺之对道学气息浓厚而艺术性较差的曾巩散文进行评价时，就显得颇为矛盾：既认为“三代以下之文未有如南丰”，又以为曾巩散文法度平实，缺少变化，只能居于唐宋八家之末。     

“十七年”音乐创作与社会的互动研究

十七年音乐在新中国音乐发展史上属于“特例”,既非建国前的“十里洋场”,亦非文革时代的“高快硬响”。音乐创作对传统的“爱情”主题进行了重新阐释与定位,将其放置到革命或者建设社会主义的大语境下来论述,使爱情叙事打上了鲜明的政治烙印。但创作者并非完全听从政治指令的艺术木偶,他是以一种更为隐性的方式将创作的触角伸向少数民族题材的音乐,以此寻求“宏大叙事”与“个人情感”之间的平衡。创作出了明显区别于其他时代的爱情歌曲,具有特别的审美价值。     

Establish a Glorious Century of Maintaining Life＇ s Dignity

现今的世界上,有许多人由于内战、贫困与饥饿、环境破坏等威胁,迫使他们的生命及尊严处于危险状态,也有大批人仍然饱受着人权侵害、种族歧视的痛苦。为和平、人权、人道的奋斗,绝不是低层爬到高山的顶峰就可以达到终点那样。重要的是要创建一股一代接一代、谁也阻挡不了的滔滔洪流,并日积月累地把它发展和扩大。这就是我们为了建设一个和平未来的不断挑战。     

Asymptotic hypothesis test to simultaneously compare the weighted kappa coefficients of multiple binary diagnostic tests in the presence of ignorable missing data

The weighted kappa coefficient of a binary diagnostic test is a measure of the beyond-chance agreement between the diagnostic test and the gold standard, and is a measure that allows us to assess and compare the performance of binary diagnostic tests. In the presence of partial disease verification, the comparison of the weighted kappa coefficients of two or more binary diagnostic tests cannot be carried out ignoring the individuals with an unknown disease status, since the estimators obtained would be affected by verification bias. In this article, we propose a global hypothesis test based on the chi-square distribution to simultaneously compare the weighted kappa coefficients when in the presence of partial disease verification the missing data mechanism is ignorable. Simulation experiments have been carried out to study the type I error and the power of the global hypothesis test. The results have been applied to the diagnosis of coronary disease.     

幼儿园游戏与教学融合的审思——基于幼儿游戏本质的视角

幼儿园游戏与教学在学前教育研究中一直隶属于两个领域，尽管有学者提出了一些融合设想，但仍难脱二元论范畴。本研究立足于幼儿游戏本质追寻，并把游戏本质作为幼儿园教学的基本内核，游戏内部的自我控制感和教学外部目的性的平衡与结合，正是幼儿园教学的核心特质。这种思路既理清了幼儿园教学特殊性，又有利于打破目前学界对于二者关系的形形色色的二元论认识，有利于促进二者从对立走向统一。     

Composite Estimation for Single‐Index Models with Responses Subject to Detection Limits

We propose a semiparametric estimator for single‐index models with censored responses due to detection limits. In the presence of left censoring, the mean function cannot be identified without any parametric distributional assumptions, but the quantile function is still identifiable at upper quantile levels. To avoid parametric distributional assumption, we propose to fit censored quantile regression and combine information across quantile levels to estimate the unknown smooth link function and the index parameter. Under some regularity conditions, we show that the estimated link function achieves the non‐parametric optimal convergence rate, and the estimated index parameter is asymptotically normal. The simulation study shows that the proposed estimator is competitive with the omniscient least squares estimator based on the latent uncensored responses for data with normal errors but much more efficient for heavy‐tailed data under light and moderate censoring. The practical value of the proposed method is demonstrated through the analysis of a human immunodeficiency virus antibody data set.     

Bayesian estimation and prediction for Weibull model with progressive censoring

This article presents the statistical inferences on Weibull parameters with the data that are progressively type II censored. The maximum likelihood estimators are derived. For incorporation of previous information with current data, the Bayesian approach is considered. We obtain the Bayes estimators under squared error loss with a bivariate prior distribution, and derive the credible intervals for the parameters of Weibull distribution. Also, the Bayes prediction intervals for future observations are obtained in the one- and two-sample cases. The method is shown to be practical, although a computer program is required for its implementation. A numerical example is presented for illustration and some simulation study are performed.     

Bayesian Treatment of Model Uncertainty for Partially Applicable Models

This article discusses how analyst's or expert's beliefs on the credibility and quality of models can be assessed and incorporated into the uncertainty assessment of an unknown of interest. The proposed methodology is a specialization of the Bayesian framework for the assessment of model uncertainty presented in an earlier paper. This formalism treats models as sources of information in assessing the uncertainty of an unknown, and it allows the use of predictions from multiple models as well as experimental validation data about the models’ performances. In this article, the methodology is extended to incorporate additional types of information about the model, namely, subjective information in terms of credibility of the model and its applicability when it is used outside its intended domain of application. An example in the context of fire risk modeling is also provided.     

人的思想道德与经济发展的关联

人的思想道德是人口素质的重要内容，人的思想道德在经济增长和经济发展中具有重要作用。但目前学术界还缺乏对人的思想道德素质与经济增长、经济发展和脱贫致富相关性的理论分析与实证检验。新时期反贫困实践应重视思想反贫困和思想扶贫。