Bayesian estimation and prediction for Weibull model with progressive censoring

This article presents the statistical inferences on Weibull parameters with the data that are progressively type II censored. The maximum likelihood estimators are derived. For incorporation of previous information with current data, the Bayesian approach is considered. We obtain the Bayes estimators under squared error loss with a bivariate prior distribution, and derive the credible intervals for the parameters of Weibull distribution. Also, the Bayes prediction intervals for future observations are obtained in the one- and two-sample cases. The method is shown to be practical, although a computer program is required for its implementation. A numerical example is presented for illustration and some simulation study are performed.     

Bayesian Treatment of Model Uncertainty for Partially Applicable Models

This article discusses how analyst's or expert's beliefs on the credibility and quality of models can be assessed and incorporated into the uncertainty assessment of an unknown of interest. The proposed methodology is a specialization of the Bayesian framework for the assessment of model uncertainty presented in an earlier paper. This formalism treats models as sources of information in assessing the uncertainty of an unknown, and it allows the use of predictions from multiple models as well as experimental validation data about the models’ performances. In this article, the methodology is extended to incorporate additional types of information about the model, namely, subjective information in terms of credibility of the model and its applicability when it is used outside its intended domain of application. An example in the context of fire risk modeling is also provided.     

人的思想道德与经济发展的关联

人的思想道德是人口素质的重要内容，人的思想道德在经济增长和经济发展中具有重要作用。但目前学术界还缺乏对人的思想道德素质与经济增长、经济发展和脱贫致富相关性的理论分析与实证检验。新时期反贫困实践应重视思想反贫困和思想扶贫。     

Enhancing the Career Planning Self-Determination of Young Adults with Mental Health Challenges

The impact of an intervention on the self-determination and career planning engagement of young adults with mental health challenges was studied. Sixty-seven young adults, 20 to 30 years of age, with mental health diagnoses (e.g., depression, bipolar disorder) were randomly assigned to intervention and control groups. Statistically significant greater increases were made by the intervention group versus the control group for self-determination and career planning engagement, and self-determination at least partially mediated increases in career planning engagement. With career planning self-determination interventions, young adults with mental health challenges might be able to achieve better career and life outcomes than is typical for this population.     

Cumulative correspondence analysis using orthogonal polynomials

Taguchi's statistic has long been known to be a more appropriate measure of association of the dependence for ordinal variables compared to the Pearson chi-squared statistic. Therefore, there is some advantage in using Taguchi's statistic in the correspondence analysis context when a two-way contingency table consists at least of an ordinal categorical variable. The aim of this paper, considering the contingency table with two ordinal categorical variables, is to show a decomposition of Taguchi's index into linear, quadratic and higher-order components. This decomposition has been developed using Emerson's orthogonal polynomials. Moreover, two case studies to explain the methodology have been analyzed.     

对中国经济运行状况的分析

从经济的投资、消费和出口数据看,中国经济增速确实在下行。为了保持中国经济8%的增速,我们已付出了很高的代价;经过35年的高速增长,在各行各业产能基本过剩的情况下,中国经济增速正在下移。观察1950年代后日本、中国台湾和香港地区经济发展的过程,其经济高速增长后,也是一个台阶又一个台阶地下来。中国不能再靠高投资来推动经济增长。     

贵州社会管理创新:经验、问题与出路

近年来,贵州社会管理创新取得了一些成效,其主要经验是强化中国共产党在社会管理创新中的领导地位,发挥政府在社会管理创新中的主导作用,创新内容要关注民生。尽管如此,贵州社会管理创新还存在社会矛盾化解机制不健全、基层政府社会管理力量薄弱、社会组织培育机制不健全等问题,应通过完善源头治理机制、改革基层社会管理体制、优化社会组织培育机制等途径来解决。     

哲学是科学的指导还是科学的工具——上世纪八十年代科学与哲学关系的论战

文章考察八十年代中国自然辩证法四大论战之一——科学与哲学关系的论战。论文首先追溯了查汝强与许良英观点分歧以及由此引发的争论;接着详细探讨了双方观点分歧和论战始末;最后对论战做了总结和思考,指出论战与八十年代的思想解放紧密联系在一起,有力地推动了思想解放的深入。     

《大西洋宪章》再现英美论战——评述历史对中美构建新型大国关系的启示

《大西洋宪章》是"二战"期间英美两国首脑首次会晤最重要的成果,它的诞生不仅标志着英美两国政治同盟的形成,也对后来反法西斯大同盟和联合国的建立产生了重要影响。但英美两国的战略处境不同,致使所抱的预期目标差距甚大。罗斯福的主要目标是想发表一个能阐述战争目的和重建战后世界和平秩序构想的联合宣言,而丘吉尔则期望通过会晤来解决英国当时所面临的一系列现实问题。然而,作为"求援者"来参会的丘吉尔最终不得不屈从于罗斯福,二人会晤后所发表的《大西洋宪章》也主要体现了罗斯福的思想和意志。重温这次英美首脑会晤以及《大西洋宪章》在战后所产生的作用,对当下中美两国在太平洋地区构建新型大国关系颇有启示。