经济增速放缓对中国政府性债务可持续问题的影响

通过对政府债务跨期预算约束等条件的推理分析,可以得出经济增速放缓将提高政府负债率以及政府债务违约概率的结论。运用matlab软件对中国GDP的增长速度进行数值模拟,研究发现,如果中国GDP增长率在2020年下降到5%,中国政府负债率在2020年将逾越60%的国际警戒线,政府开源节流和合理的负债结构有助于降低政府债务风险。     

A J‐function for Inhomogeneous Spatio‐temporal Point Processes

We propose a new summary statistic for inhomogeneous intensity‐reweighted moment stationarity spatio‐temporal point processes. The statistic is defined in terms of the n‐point correlation functions of the point process, and it generalizes the J‐function when stationarity is assumed. We show that our statistic can be represented in terms of the generating functional and that it is related to the spatio‐temporal K‐function. We further discuss its explicit form under some specific model assumptions and derive ratio‐unbiased estimators. We finally illustrate the use of our statistic in practice. © 2014 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics     

Optimal Bootstrap Sample Size in Construction of Percentile Confidence Bounds

In traditional bootstrap applications the size of a bootstrap sample equals the parent sample size, n say. Recent studies have shown that using a bootstrap sample size different from n may sometimes provide a more satisfactory solution. In this paper we apply the latter approach to correct for coverage error in construction of bootstrap confidence bounds. We show that the coverage error of a bootstrap percentile method confidence bound, which is of order O ( n ^−2/2) typically, can be reduced to O ( n ⁻¹) by use of an optimal bootstrap sample size. A simulation study is conducted to illustrate our findings, which also suggest that the new method yields intervals of shorter length and greater stability compared to competitors of similar coverage accuracy.     

Valores humanos en trabajadores de bajo nivel educativo en Natal (Brasil)

Resumen

Las investigaciones sobre valores humanos se han incrementado bajo la influencia de la teoría de los tipos motivacionales que abarca una tipología de valores y una estructura dinámica. En dicha perspectiva, se han desarrollado cuestionarios para la medición de los distintos tipos de valores, siendo uno de ellos el Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ). En Brasil existe la necesidad de contar con instrumentos de investigación útiles para segmentos de la población de bajo nivel educativo. En la presente investigación se aplicó el referido cuestionario a 474 trabajadores de sectores económicos en los que predomina un nivel educativo bajo. Para analizar las respuestas se aplicaron el análisis factorial (AF) y el smallest space analysis (SSA). A partir de los resultados del AF se identificó una estructura con cuatro factores—Pacifismo-hedónico, Poder, Religiosidad y Conformidad—mientras que gracias al SSA se identificaron siete tipos de valores: Poder-logro, Poder-estimulación, Autodirección, Hedonismo Religioso, Universalismo, Benevolencia y Conformidad. Los resultados revelaron que, entre las personas de bajo nivel formativo, las diferencias entre tipos de valores pierden en exactitud pero presentan nuevos sentidos.     

重视语言教与学中的“情感过滤”

本文在简要论述什么是第二语言习得及二语习得理论对语言教师实践的重要意义的基础上,着重探讨了二语习得中情感因素的研究成果,特别是"情感过滤"现象的存在对外语教与学的启示.     

办报是党的一种重要工作方式——毛泽东新闻宣传思想学习札记

本文根据毛泽东同志提出的“办报是党的一种重要工作方式”的新闻宣传思想,探讨其由来,介绍这种工作方式的特点。同时,探讨在全面推进政治体制改革,发展社会主义市场经济的今天,党应该如何改进这一重要工作方式,以更好地利用这一工作方式。     

n元数及其性质(Ⅰ)

本文研究了所谓“几元阵”的运算特性,考察了二元阵与复数的一致对应规律,概括出关于n维实向量的统一的算术运算(加法、减法、乘法、除法)体系,从而导致n元数的发现,把数的概念——实数和复数,推广到一般的n维实向量。     

The rhetorical construction of efficiency: Restructuring and industrial democracy in Mondragón,Spain

This paper examines the tension between the struggle to survive in a competitive economy and efforts to create more democratic workplaces in the Basque worker cooperative complex in Mondragón, Spain. Data from archival research, participant observation, and interviews are used to outline the historical context of structural change and policy-making in the complex. Language used in internal policy discussions is analyzed to explore the way in which arguments about efficiency have shaped interpretations of structural change and these organizations' policy responses. It is argued that in these cooperatives, the concept of efficiency does not operate as a neutral, objective benchmark of organizational performance, but is socially and rhetorically constructed. The predominant approach to efficiency that is emerging in Mondragón aims to make the cooperatives more competitive, but also facilitates a gradual displacement of collectively established organizational objectives such as relative equality, job security, and favorable work conditions for ones that privilege institutional interests of profitability and stability. More importantly, it has helped usher in important changes in the policy-making process itself, limiting the range of legitimate participation and weakening broad-based control over the identification of appropriate objectives and means. The paper suggests that reframing an existing rhetorical strategy to highlight more clearly the link between efficiency and any given set of objectives would stimulate a broader discussion of policy issues and help balance more effectively the diverse interests at stake in Mondragón's restructuring.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1992 annual meetings of the American Sociological Association in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.     

Extending pension coverage in Cambodia: The governance and investment challenges of the Social Security Investment Fund

Rapid economic growth, declining fertility and changes in family structures have encouraged the Kingdom of Cambodia to reform its old-age pension system. The Government of Cambodia reached an important milestone in 2019, when the Law on Social Security was promulgated. The Law includes provisions for a compulsory defined benefit pension scheme, establishing a sound framework for extending compulsory pension coverage beyond the public sector to formal private-sector workers. As a future step, the compulsory pension scheme should be extended to informal workers. To accompany the reform, the investment policy for the pension scheme’s reserve funds, including the supervisory regime and investment strategy, will be essential for the modernization of the Cambodian social security system. In this regard, Cambodia has successfully sought policy advice. However, the country should continue to seek further advice, and to act on this. Otherwise, the necessary and increasingly pressing policy ambitions of Cambodia to develop an adequate and sustainable social protection system may not be fully realized.     

Expanding social health protection in Cambodia: An assessment of the current coverage potential and gaps,and social equity considerations

The Royal Government of Cambodia recently launched its National Social Protection Policy framework to strengthen and expand social security and assistance. To inform social health protection policy, we examine socio-economic survey data and administrative coverage data to assess the coverage potential of existing coverage mechanisms and current gaps; and compare equitable contribution rates. Over 53 per cent of the population currently has no social health protection coverage mechanism, and about 16 per cent of the population who do have access to a mechanism are not yet enrolled. Current expansion efforts focus on the formal employee scheme, primarily benefiting individuals from higher income households. In addition, recent coverage expansion to some informal workers leaves significant gaps, particularly among the informal sector. We find out-of-pocket health care expenditure to be an excessive share of income among lower wealth quintile individuals and conclude they are financially vulnerable. Finally, we illustrate that an equitable approach to individual, monthly health care contributions among the lower three quintiles has a severely limited potential for revenue generation, and collection costs could exceed the amount collected. Therefore, we recommend that vulnerable groups should be exempted from contribution payments as social health protection is expanded.