The digital economy and the future of European welfare states

As a consequence of new technology, labour markets are changing. This article’s central aim is to discuss variations among welfare states in Europe to adjust to changing labour markets. These variations in adjustment suggest that some welfare states are more prepared than others, including their capacity to ensure their sustainable financing. In the years to come, the predicted impact of technological development on labour markets will be huge. Impacts will include stronger “dualization” and new cleavages between “insiders” and “outsiders”. Fewer industrial jobs are to be expected, and service‐sector employment faces a risk of decline due to automation. While the creation of new jobs is likely, it remains to be seen whether these will replace the number of jobs destroyed, leaving the risk that many people whose skills become obsolete will become unemployed in the short as well as the longer term. Furthermore, even if the same number of jobs are eventually created, there will be a period of transition. In the light of this, welfare states will be challenged, not only in how they can finance their activities but also in terms of the threat posed to social cohesion by emerging labour market “winners” and “losers”, with an accompanying higher risk of increasing inequality. The article offers suggestions as to how welfare states may cope with the changes related to the financing of welfare states, and how active labour market policy can be part of the response to help alleviate the expected dramatic changes. Also required is a discussion on the annual average number of hours people will work and how this might be a factor in lower future levels of unemployment.     

Microinsurance: A short history

Twenty years ago, the International Social Security Review published an article that introduced a new term to the vocabulary of development and social protection: Microinsurance. Now, twenty years later, it is suitable to take stock of the contribution of microinsurance towards promoting coverage and social security. The article reviews the main insights gained from 20 years of implementation, including a clear expression of the value proposition of health microinsurance, understanding the demand for microinsurance, the business process for successful implementation, and conditions that must be satisfied for scaling and sustainable operations. It also explains the context that led to a considerable divergence in the microinsurance space. The article offers a discussion of unresolved issues and thoughts about the future of microinsurance. The conclusion of this article is that microinsurance can flourish when the necessary four pillars for its implementation exist, namely mainstreaming through political support, enhanced insurance literacy of the customers, technical assistance to self‐administer the schemes, and availability of seed capital. The sufficient additional condition is that customers perceive microinsurance as offering welfare gains that cannot be obtained by other means.     

计数公式与时钟夹角公式在中学解题中的应用

本文应用计数公式n(n-1)/2和时钟夹角公式|m×30°-5.5°n|解决了两个元素确定一个图形或组合(握手、比赛等)的计数问题和与时针和分针夹角的相关数学问题。     

China’s social security response to COVID-19: Wider lessons learnt for social security’s contribution to social cohesion and inclusive economic development

China has adopted an array of special social security measures in response to the spread of the COVID-19 virus, to mitigate the downside social and economic impacts caused by the pandemic. Measures include the reduction, exemption and deferral of social security contributions by employers, the extension of benefits coverage for employees, and the provision of more accessible e-services by social insurance agencies. The article points out that a preliminary assessment of those measures would suggest that they have played a key role in supporting social cohesion and in stabilizing the economy. In a critical manner, the article compares the measures adopted in China with those of other countries, and identifies how China could learn from international practice and experience. Finally, and based on recent Chinese experience, the article presents proposals that seek to improve the longer-term contribution made by the Chinese social security system to realize the goals of social cohesion and inclusive economic development. As set out in China’s Social Insurance Law of 2010, the social security system should not only support a fair sharing of benefits of development, but also promote social harmony and stability.     

话语标记“我给你说”的演变过程

话语标记＂我给你说＂的虚化过程是：由动词虚化为介词的＂给＂产生引进言谈者意义后,由于言谈主语＂我＂和动词＂说＂结合而成的＂我说＂很容易呈现从动作义到情态义的主观化倾向,部分＂我给你说＂便慢慢成为概念意义消失、拥有人际意义和语篇意义的话语标记。这也给话语标记的变体研究提出了新的课题。     

India's Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Act: Assessing the quality of access and adequacy of benefits in MGNREGS public works

The extension of social protection to all has become a central policy objective, both nationally and internationally. A considerable number of middle‐ and low‐income countries have undertaken substantial efforts to extend social protection, while the international community reaffirmed its commitment to the extension of social protection through the adoption of the ILO Recommendation concerning National Floors of Social Protection, No. 202 (2012). This article reviews the legal provisions and the implementation of the Indian Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), legislated in 2005, and does so in the light of the more recent provisions of ILO Recommendation No. 202. Since its introduction ten years ago, MGNREGA has provided a source of income to rural workers, increased wage rates, achieved high female participation rates and created durable assets. India's local governance bodies, Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRI), have been empowered and involved in the processes of planning and monitoring. However, despite successes, there have been considerable shortcomings in implementation. This article highlights two central themes: first, the innovative policy framework of the Act, which brings together rights‐based entitlements, demand‐driven employment, and citizen‐centred monitoring. Second, it assesses the accessibility and adequacy of benefits in the implementation of MGNREGA. We conclude that MGNREGA offers potential for South‐South learning, both in terms of policy‐design and implementation.     

Pension reforms in Chile and social security principles, 1981–2015

Chile pioneered in Latin America not only the introduction of social security pensions, but the structural reform that privatized them and a process of “re‐reform” implementing key improvements. A Presidential Commission in Chile, appointed in 2014 to evaluate reform progress and remaining problems in the pension system, released its report in September 2015. In light of the Commission's findings, the article assesses Chile's compliance with International Labour Organization social security guiding principles: social dialogue, universal coverage, equal treatment, social solidarity, gender equity, adequacy of benefits, efficiency and affordable administrative cost, social participation in management, state role and supervision, and financial sustainability. The exercise follows three stages: the structural reform (1981–2008), the re‐reform (2008–2015), and the Presidential Commission proposals (2015)     

How much do OECD countries spend on social protection and how redistributive are their tax/benefit systems?

The global economic crisis has reignited interest in social policy and public spending on different types of social benefits. Public social spending‐to‐GDP ratios are often used to consider the magnitude of welfare systems in international perspective, but such comparisons alone give an incomplete picture of social effort across countries. This article looks at these different factors, before briefly considering the redistributive nature of tax/benefit systems in different member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD). The article also considers trends in social spending and compares spending in the late 2000s with the early 1990s when the previous economic crisis played out. The article ends by illustrating the profound effect the recent global economic crisis had on social spending trends across OECD countries.     

Hybrid and Size‐Corrected Subsampling Methods

This paper considers inference in a broad class of nonregular models. The models considered are nonregular in the sense that standard test statistics have asymptotic distributions that are discontinuous in some parameters. It is shown in Andrews and Guggenberger (2009a) that standard fixed critical value, subsampling, and m out of n bootstrap methods often have incorrect asymptotic size in such models. This paper introduces general methods of constructing tests and confidence intervals that have correct asymptotic size. In particular, we consider a hybrid subsampling/fixed‐critical‐value method and size‐correction methods. The paper discusses two examples in detail. They are (i) confidence intervals in an autoregressive model with a root that may be close to unity and conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form and (ii) tests and confidence intervals based on a post‐conservative model selection estimator.