对储蓄高增长与收入分布的相关分析

采用计量验证的方法 ,对中国 1985 - 2 0 0 2年间储蓄增长与收入分布进行了相关分析 ,发现 ,如果居民收入分布不合理 ,少数人占有多数的收入 ,即高收入阶层比重过高 ,而中等收入比重相对较低时 ,全社会的平均储蓄倾向必然会过大。因此 ,当前的高储蓄从一个侧面反映出收入分布的不合理 ,应采取有力措施促进中等收入阶层的壮大 ,改变目前的偏态收入分布格局     

中国邮政储蓄制度变迁的理论分析

我国邮政储蓄目前已成为第六大金融机构,但受到金融界的广泛批评。这些批评根源于邮政储蓄独特的制度安排,因而这种制度安排的走向成为人们关注的焦点。文章运用制度经济学原理揭示邮政储蓄制度安排的内在逻辑,部分回答这种引起广泛批评的制度安排原因,指出这种制度的不稳定性,并探讨其演变方向。文章的结论是目前邮政储蓄制度安排秉承着过去,有其内在的必然性,只有邮政储蓄制度供给者利益兼顾,未来邮政储蓄制度的帕累托改进才能实现     

我国城镇居民保险需求的实证分析与政策含义

居民保险需求是影响保险供给、影响保险业险种开发和设计的决定性因素。分析研究居民保险需求及其影响因素,有助于保险业的险种开发,也有利于政府对保险业的宏观调控和保险政策的制定。经过运用模型对上世纪80年代中期以来我国城镇居民保险需求及影响因素进行的实证分析,发现我国城乡居民的保险需求更多是出于人身保障动机,属于一种保障型储蓄行为。保险业的险种开发和政府部门的监管,应突出险种对生命的保障功能,而不应偏重于投资功能险种的开发。     

On robust empirical bayes analysis of means and variances from stratified samples

Ghosh and Lahiri (1987a,b) considered simultaneous estimation of several strata means and variances where each stratum contains a finite number of elements, under the assumption that the posterior expectation of any stratum mean is a linear function of the sample observations - the so called“posterior linearity” property. In this paper we extend their result by retaining the “posterior linearity“ property of each stratum mean but allowing the superpopulation model whose mean as well as the variance-covariance structure changes from stratum to stratum. The performance of the proposed empirical Bayes estimators are found to be satisfactory both in terms of “asymptotic optimality” (Robbins (1955)) and “relative savings loss” (Efron and Morris (1973)).     

Small-dollar accounts,children's college outcomes,and wilt

This is paper four of four in the Small-Dollar Children's Savings Account series, which studies the relationship between children's small-dollar savings accounts and college enrollment and graduation. This series of papers examines three important research questions using different subsamples: (a) Are children with savings of their own more likely to attend or graduate from college? (b) Does dosage (i.e., having no account, only basic savings, savings designated for school [of less than $1, $1 to $499, or $500 or more]) matte? And (c) is having savings designated for school more predictive than having basic savings alone? In this study we use a sample of children who expect to graduate college prior to leaving high school as a way of looking at wilt. In this study “wilt” occurs when a child who expects to graduate from college while in high school does not graduate college by 2009. Using propensity score weighted data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and its supplements we created multi-treatment dosages of savings accounts and amounts to answer the previous questions. We find that in the aggregate children who expect to graduate college prior to leaving high school (high-expectation children) and who designate savings for school of $500 or more are about two times more likely to graduate college than high-expectation children with no account. High-expectation low- and moderate-income (LMI) children who designate school savings of $1 to $499 and $500 or more are about three times more likely to graduate college than LMI children with no account. Further, high-expectation black children who have school savings of $500 or more are about two and half times more likely to graduate from college than their counterparts with no savings account.     

The independent effects of socio-demographic and programmatic factors on economic strain among parents in a Child Savings Accounts program

This study examines the independent effects of socio-demographic variables and program social services on the degree of economic strain among lower income parents who had an opportunity to open child savings in a subsidized savings accounts program known as Saving for Education, Entrepreneurship, and Downpayment (SEED). SEED is a policy, practice and research initiative designed to test the efficacy of and inform policy for a national system of asset-building accounts for children and youth. Findings suggest that overall, the degree of economic strain was not significantly different at baseline and at the second wave between parents who opened accounts and those who did not open accounts for their children. However, household income, having a household savings account, and receipt of means-tested welfare programs affected the degrees of economic strain. Implications are directed toward helping lower income families effectively participate in child savings programs.     

Accumulating assets,debts in young adulthood: Children as potential future investors

Child Development Accounts (CDA) aim to open savings accounts in childhood as a way to lay a foundation for building assets in young adulthood and beyond. Mainstream banks may be key partners in opening the accounts in which children can build assets. While children may have limited savings to invest initially, they may increasingly invest over time by accumulating assets and debts through mainstream banks. Mainstream banks may benefit from children's increasing investments. This paper uses propensity score weighted, longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and its supplements to examine savings, assets, debt, and net worth accumulation of young adults and whether or not they accumulate more when they have savings accounts as children. Young adults accumulate a median of $1000 in savings accounts, $4600 in total assets, $965 in debt (excluding student loans), and $4000 in net worth (excluding student loans). Young adults accumulate more savings and total assets when they have savings accounts as children. They accumulate less debt and more net worth when their households accumulate high net worth.     

What Happens to Defined Contribution Accounts When Labor Markets and Financial Markets Move Together?

The relationship among earnings, savings, and retirement is well known; however, the linkage between labor market outcomes and financial market performance is generally unacknowledged. We examine the implications of the link between labor markets and financial markets for workers who save money in individual retirement accounts. Specifically, differences in labor market outcomes across groups may imply differences in the timing of investments, which may reduce savings over time for these groups compared to their counterparts. Using monthly data from the Current Population Survey (1979–2002), we generate hypothetical investment portfolios using stock and bond indices. We exploit differences across demographic groups in unemployment and wage growth and use these differences to examine each group's investment outcomes. We then disaggregate the total effects into short-term and long-term components. We find some evidence of short-term market timing effects on investment, but we find much larger long-term effects for some groups. Our findings suggest that, for many people, the retirement savings losses associated with the timing of markets are similar to the costs of annuitizing savings upon retirement. The differences are especially pronounced by education and gender.     

Gender and Pensions: An Analysis of Factors Affecting Women's Private Pension Scheme Membership in the United Kingdom

There has been considerable debate about the future sustainability of pension provision and, in particular, the precarious position of many female pensioners. The reasons for women's lower participation rates in private pensions than men's require greater investigation. Using the General Lifestyle Survey (GLF) 2008, this article examines the impact of various characteristics on the likelihood of contributing to a private pension, such as educational attainments, income, occupational group, full-time/part-time status, and whether an individual has any dependent children. It shows that these characteristics play an important role in access to private pensions. Finally, it suggests that strategies to alleviate disadvantages must take into account the complex circumstances that individuals experience throughout the life course, which result in gendered pension provision.     

资本形成对辽宁省经济增长的贡献

为了说明资本形成对辽宁省经济增长贡献的关系,采用理论研究与实证分析相结合的方法,利用Eviews计量分析软件,对GDP的增幅、存贷款利率、居民储蓄率、投资流向、财政收入与支出等进行分析,结果表明:辽宁省经济增长与资本形成之间呈现正相关关系,但效果不明显。