基于预防性储蓄动机的中美股市财富效应比较研究——对牛市和熊市的检验

本文以最能凸显财富效应的牛市和熊市期间的数据为样本,对中美两国股市的财富效应和各自主要指标进行了对比分析,发现美国股市虽然在相对规模、公司业绩、投资者行为、股利政策等方面远远优于中国股市,但是其财富效应只比中国股市略强,且自身统计性质不够显著。其原因是股票市场特有的波动性增强了投资者预防性储蓄动机,从而削弱了股市财富效应。最后分析了关于中国股市财富效应问题的政策含义。     

一场旷日持久且远未结束的论战 ——美国学界有关社会保障对储蓄影响的争论述评

早在20世纪60年代,美国学术界就开始关注社会保障对储蓄的影响.但直到1974年费尔德斯坦提出社会保障使美国私人储蓄减少了很多之后,有关这个问题的争论才开始白热化.许多知名专家学者投入到这一问题的研究中,提出了各种分析方法和观点,但直到现在也没有得出公认的结论.美国学术界有关这个问题的论战,实质是社会保障改革道路之争.人们不应该盲从于某种观点,更不应该急于把某一种观点当作支持自己社会保障改革主张的依据,而是应该汲取其在研究方法等方面的营养,继续前行.     

Bayes prediction of Poisson regression superpopulation mean with a non gamma prior

We consider Khamis' (1960) Laguerre expansion with gamma weight function as a class of “near-gamma” priors (K-prior) to obtain the Bayes predictor of a finite population mean under the Poisson regression superpopulation model using Zellner's balanced loss function (BLF). Kullback–Leibler (K-L) distance between gamma and some K-priors is tabulated to examine the quantitative prior robustness. Some numerical investigations are also conducted to illustrate the effects of a change in skewness and/or kurtosis on the Bayes predictor and the corresponding minimal Bayes predictive expected loss (MBPEL). Loss robustness with respect to the class of BLFs is also examined in terms of relative savings loss (RSL).     

中国居民储蓄高增长的经济研究

居民储蓄是国民储蓄的重要组成部分。居民储蓄的快速增长,成为我国经济发展的主要资金来源。但过高的储蓄,必然伴随着投资或消费的不足。本文通过对影响居民储蓄的主要因素进行定量分析,发现国民生产总值、利率水平、政府政策以及居民收入差距对储蓄水平起到了重要的作用,在此基础上,通过进一步分析,针对我国偏高的居民储蓄提出建议与对策。     

Return Chasing as a Driver in Individual Retirement Savings Investment Choices: Evidence from Australia

Australia’s retirement savings regime requires employers to make contributions to a superannuation fund for their employees. Workers who may have no experience of investment are asked to make relatively complex decisions, which have significant implications for their retirement lifestyle. Evidence suggests individuals may be unduly influenced by recent historical returns when making investment choices. Such a bias may produce sub-optimal results over the longer-term. This paper uses a large database from four not-for-profit retirement savings funds to investigate members’ investment choices using logistic regression and multi-variate tests. We find evidence that choices are driven by recent historical returns. We also investigate demographics and find a link between age and return chasing behaviour.     

关于我国邮政金融改革的思考

邮政储蓄在央行支持下长期以来得到了迅速的发展,而在新政策和金融改革逐步推进的压力下,随着转存款利率的不断调低,邮政储蓄面临巨大的挑战。根据各国改革的经验,我国邮政储蓄的改革很有可能是先实现邮政储蓄的独立经营,之后再完成股份制改造。在其模式选择上,提出了以批发业务为主的商业银行和组建全国最大的零售银行两种模式。     

A finite-sample sensitivity analysis of the Dickey–Fuller test under local-to-unity detrending

In recent research, Elliott et al. (1996) Elliott, G. 1996. Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64: 813–836. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar] have shown the use of local-to-unity detrending via generalized least squares (GLS) to substantially increase the power of the Dickey–Fuller (1979) unit root test. In this paper the relationship between the extent of detrending undertaken, determined by the detrending parameter &art1;, and the power of the resulting GLS-based Dickey–Fuller (DF-GLS) test is examined. Using Monte Carlo simulation it is shown that the values of &art1; suggested by Elliott et al. (1996) Elliott, G. 1996. Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64: 813–836. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar] on the basis of a limiting power function seldom maximize the power of the DF-GLS test for the finite samples encountered in applied research. This result is found to hold for the DF-GLS test including either an intercept or an intercept and a trend term. An empirical examination of the order of integration of the UK household savings ratio illustrates these findings, with the unit root hypothesis rejected using values of &art1; other than that proposed by Elliott et al. (1996) Elliott, G. 1996. Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64: 813–836. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar].     

人口老龄化背景下我国农村老年互助保障合作社发展构想研究

人口老龄化是21世纪全球人口发展面临的主要趋势。在我国人口老龄化问题日益突出的背景下,首先对农村老年互助保障合作社进行背景分析,深入探讨我国建立农村老年互助保障合作社的必要性和可行性,并初步界定农村老年互助保障合作社的基本内涵及其组织特征;然后重点从内部组织机构、产权制度、监督机制等方面探讨其运行机制,通过内、外两个角度分析其组织功能;最后从立法、政策、资金和培训等方面提出发展农村老年互助保障合作社的政策建议。     

Social and Psychological Barriers to Private Retirement Savings in Hong Kong

Using a phone survey conducted among Hong Kong workers, we examined the association of institutional, social, and psychological factors with engagement in both private retirement savings and the total amount of savings. Alarmingly, this study demonstrates that approximately 42% of Hong Kong workers do not save privately for their retirement. We found that age, education, number of children, support from spouse and friends, social regulation, perceived financial knowledge, and financial management capacity are associated with engagement in private retirement savings. Among those who saved, age, education, perceived financial knowledge, and financial management capacity are related to the amount of savings. Measures that could increase the social support for retirement savings as well as enhance their financial knowledge and management ability should be developed and implemented so that more workers engage in private retirement savings. A promising policy option for the Hong Kong government is to offer a tax incentive to promote additional savings for old-age income protection.     

Connections with banking institutions and diverse asset portfolios in young adulthood: Children as potential future investors

A central hypothesis of Child Development Accounts (CDA) suggests that savings accounts in childhood lay a foundation for connecting to mainstream banking institutions and diversifying asset portfolios in young adulthood and beyond. While children may have limited savings to invest initially, they are financial actors who may increasingly invest money into different types of savings products over time. This paper uses propensity score weighted, longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and its supplements to examine the types of financial and nonfinancial assets owned by young adults and whether or not they are more likely to own these assets when they have savings accounts as children. The most commonly owned assets in young adulthood included savings accounts (89%), vehicles (54%) and credit cards (51%). Smaller percentages owned stocks (9%), bonds (6%), and homes (8%). On average, young adults owned two to three different assets. Having savings accounts in childhood was associated with being two times more likely to own savings accounts, two times more likely to own credit cards, and four times more likely to own stocks in young adulthood, compared to not having savings accounts in childhood. Young adults' ownership of more total financial assets was also associated with having savings accounts in childhood. Findings provide some supporting evidence of demand for children's savings accounts. Policy endeavors that remove barriers to account ownership may be advantageous for children and mainstream banks.