近年我国利率政策效应的定量评估

基于弹性理论,利用经济计量方法,对利率政策是否失效进行了定量化研究。计量分析表明利率政策虽仍有一定作用,但单纯依靠利率政策启动市场难度很大。     

Optimizing the “demographic dividend” in young developing countries: The role of contractual savings and insurance for financing education

Many developing regions are facing a youth bulge, meaning that young people comprise the highest proportion of the population. These regions are at risk of losing what could be a tremendous opportunity for economic growth and development if they do not capitalize on this young and economically productive population, also referred to as the “demographic dividend,” defined as the increase in economic growth that tends to follow increases in the ratio of the working‐age population – essentially the labor force – to dependents. Nations undergoing this population transition have the opportunity to capitalize on the demographic dividend if the right social, economic, and human capital policies are in place. In particular, Sub‐Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and North Africa are at risk of losing the demographic dividend. These regions face high youth unemployment, low primary school completion, and low secondary school enrollment. This results in an undereducated and unskilled segment of the population. The prohibitive costs of education prevent young people from finishing school, thereby entering the labor market unprepared. This article presents a case for youth‐focused financial inclusion programs as one of the antidotes to the masses of poor, undereducated, and low‐skilled young people swelling the labor markets of poor developing countries.     

老龄化对储蓄和社会养老保障的影响研究

本文从一个两期的世代交叠模型入手,分析了人口老龄化对储蓄和社会养老保障支出的影响。在此基础上运用动态GMM模型对我国2000～2008年地区面板数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明:第一,人均居民储蓄滞后项对基期储蓄的影响作用较大且高度显著;当期老年人口抚养比对人均居民储蓄的影响为负,上期老年人口抚养比对居民储蓄并没有显著影响。第二,人均养老保障支出滞后项对当期人均养老保障支出影响作用较大且高度显著;当期老年人口抚养比对人均养老保障支出有促进作用,而上期老年人口抚养比抑制了人均养老保障支出的增加。     

储蓄率与经济增长的关系研究——基于中国1978～2008年间的数据分析

储蓄率在现代经济增长理论中占有极其重要的地位,是影响经济增长率的重要变量,大量实证研究也证实了这一点。基于中国1978～2008年间的数据,采用Granger因果检验来分析储蓄率和经济增长之间的关系,分析结果显示：经济增长率是储蓄率的Granger原因,但储蓄率对经济增长率的影响作用不显著。因此,中国宏观调控政策的重点应当放在启动消费上,适度改善投资结构,加强对可贷资金的引导和规范,保证储蓄向投资转化渠道的畅通。     

Postal Savings for National Development—The Experience of Japan and Future Perspective in a Globalized World

Global economic forces have been prompting the institutional changes in the public sector based on the market-oriented principles and such changes greatly have affected the postal savings system in Japan. Postal savings system’s public roles were fundamentally changed because of current administrative reform undertakings. In this article, firstly the role of collecting savings from ordinary citizens for fiscal policies was reviewed and the assessment of this public role is conducted. Secondly, abolishment of Universal Service Obligation due to the privatization of the postal savings system and the possible occurrence of Financial Exclusion are analyzed.

公共财政与中国国民收入的高储蓄倾向(英文)

本文将国有企业从“企业部门”中分离出来,与“政府部门”合并为“公共部门”,其储蓄率称为“公共部门储蓄率”;并将非国有企业与居民合并为“私人部门”,其储蓄率称为“私人部门储蓄率”。据此提出的中国高储蓄率的公共财政假说认为：2000年以来中国储蓄率持续高涨,是由政府的赢利性动机及其对公共财政职能产生的挤出效应推动的,并带来了公共支出的不足。结果,居民和非国有企业不得不增加预防性储蓄。利用我国1996--2006年30个省面板实证检验的结果验证了此假说。     

Ineligible to Save? Asset Limits and the Saving Behavior of Welfare Recipients

ABSTRACT

This article explores how asset limits used to determine eligibility for the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program influence the saving behavior of program participants. The qualitative evidence presented in this study serves to explain how asset limit policy may contribute to the low rate of savings and bank account ownership among the welfare population. From these conversations, it is clear that the existence of asset limits—or, just as importantly, the perception that these limits exist—negatively impacts the saving behavior of TANF recipients.     

预防性储蓄动机强度的地区差异分析——基于海南省农村居民的研究（1990—2008）

采用Dnyna的预防性储蓄模型和固定效应-工具变量法（FE-IV）对海南省农村居民1990—2008年的预防性储蓄动机强度及其地区差异进行了估计。研究发现：1.海南省农村居民存在明显的预防性储蓄动机,强度高于海南省城镇居民的水平,但远低于全国农村居民的平均水平;2.海南省不同收入地区的农村居民的预防性储蓄动机强度差别不大,没有出现＂居民收入越低,预防性储蓄动机越强＂的规律;3.提高人均GDP水平和城镇化率都不能有效降低海南省农村居民的预防性储蓄水平。     

Wealth: Determinants of Savings Net Worth and Housing Net Worth of Pre-Retired Households

The objectives of this study are to determine effects of household members' characteristics, financial resources, and attitude toward intergenerational support on change in savings net worth and change in housing net worth. Subsamples of White respondents, Black respondents, and Hispanic respondents were analyzed to identify the effects of race or ethnicity on the dependent variables. Attitude toward intergenerational support was the intervening variable. Change in labor income had a positive impact on change in savings net worth for all three racial or ethnic groups. An additional child in a household and an older age of the household head were likely to decrease the change in savings net worth. Effects of the remaining variables differed by subsample. The effects of labor and nonlabor income were different for the change in savings net worth but not for the change in housing net worth. Some different effects for variables across the three racial or ethnic groups were noted.     

发展个人消费信贷的思考

目前我国实行个人消费信贷面临一些障碍 ,致使消费信贷低迷 ,直接影响经济增长目标的实现。发展个人消费信贷 ,目前的政策取向是 :1、加大宣传力度 ,转变消费观念 ;2、提高居民实际收入 ;3、健全社会保障制度 ;4、加快个人消费信贷体系建设。