论储蓄高增长与收入分布

文章采用计量验证的方法,分析了中国1985～1999年间储蓄增长与收入分布之间的关系,发现如果居民收入分布不合理,全社会的平均储蓄倾向必然会过大,因此不同收入阶层在总收入中的比重影响到平均储蓄倾向水平。当前的高储蓄从一个侧面反映出收入分布的不合理,应采取有力措施促进中等收入阶层的壮大。     

Covid-19 and the euthanasia of interest rates: A critical assessment of central bank policy in our times

We compare the New Keynesian and Austrian explanations for low interest rates in the light of the Corona crisis. From a New Keynesian perspective low interest rates are the result of structural changes in the society and the economy as well as the cyclical downswing triggered by the Corona pandemic. In contrast, from the perspective of Austrian economic theory, interest rates have been pushed down on trend by central banks for a long time to stimulate growth, with the global financial crisis of 2007/08 and the Corona crisis of 2020 acting as powerful accelerators of the euthanasia of interest. New Keynesian theory would suggest that interest rates can be adjusted upward again when conditions change, without creating economic and financial disturbances. Against this, Austrian theory finds that central banks have backed themselves into a corner by creating persistent low-interest expectations.     

家庭子代死亡风险对经济增长的影响

在家庭养老的环境里,独生子女政策下的子代意外死亡发生时间对于家庭的子女教育投资、储蓄以及由此产生的家庭养老保障能力具有重要的影响.当家庭尚有生育能力的情况下,子代在未接受人力资本积累期间的死亡率变化与教育投资率无关,也与家庭的储蓄率无关,但该阶段的死亡率下降,有利于消费的永久性增长.但对于子代在家庭支付人力资本积累后的死亡率变化对人力资本投资具有正反两面的作用,它的变化对于经济增长也同样具有正反两种效应,其净效应还受制于老年的存活概率,子代的生育率数量等其他因素.因此,在当前老龄化程度较低的情况下,当前的高储蓄现象并非来自于子代死亡率的下降以及子代数量的外生下降,而是来自于老年寿命预期的延长,子代的死亡风险并不必然导致中国长期养老能力的弱化.     

人口老龄化的经济效应研究综述

面对高速而来的老龄化时代，国内外学者分别从社会经济各个方面研究了人口老龄化的影响，其中关于人口老龄化对经济增长的影响尤为显著。本文以经济增长中各要素贡献度的大小为依据，从储蓄、劳动生产率、人力资本等几个方面入手。对这一领域的研究进展进行概括，并总结了其中的焦点与分歧问题。     

The Savings Approach to Financing Long-Term Care in Singapore

Summary

Singapore is grappling with provision of services for the current generation of older people at the same time as building the foundation for the coming generations of elderly. In this article, I analyze four sets of factors that are shaping long-term care policy and financing in ways that are almost unique to Singapore. First, current developments can only be understood in the context of the Central Provident Fund (CPF) that was established by the Government of Singapore in the 1950s to ensure that the working population saved for retirement; the Medisave and related schemes for financing health care were subsequently developed alongside the CPF. Most recently, the existing funding arrangements have been extended to some long-term care services, and options for further extensions are under consideration. Second, the government's philosophy of maintaining the primacy of family support for the elderly has been expressed through a number of initiatives that provide financial and other incentives to families, combined with an emphasis on community care. The third factor is the relationship between government and the voluntary welfare organizations that are the major providers of institutional and community services. Finally, a series of government-sponsored reviews and advisory councils have provided for widespread consultation on policy options. These developments are directed to achieving a multi-pillar approach in which intergenerational transfers through taxation will be limited, and the role of individual savings and insurance will be increased.     

Cash-Flow and Savings Practices of Low-Income Households: Evidence From a Follow-Up Study of IDA Participants

ABSTRACT

Understanding how low-income households manage their finances is critical to designing effective antipoverty interventions. This study used data from a 2008 follow-up survey of 326 low-income households in Hawaii who participated in an Individual Development Account (IDA) intervention from 1999 to 2005. Self-reported cash flow (five items) and savings (four items) practices were explored using latent class analysis. Three latent classes were produced: Class 3 managed cash flows and saved (n = 166; 51%); Class 2 managed cash flows but did not save (n = 73; 22%); and Class 1 struggled to manage cash flows and save (n = 89; 27%). Using ordinal regression, psychological sense of mastery was positively and significantly (p < .01) related to being in a higher class membership (b = .14; OR = 1.15). IDA participation had no association with latent classification. The key finding is the heterogeneity among low-income financial management practices and the importance of providing individualized services. Future longitudinal research is needed to understand how IDA participation affects financial practices in the short term and long term.     

陕西省经济发展可持续性的财富测度研究

陕西省作为西北地区的经济大省 ,经济的可持续性直接决定着其能否在西部大开发中站稳脚跟 ,发挥龙头作用。从真实储蓄率和真实投资率的角度分析陕西省经济发展状况 ,可以看出陕西省经济发展具有较强的可持续性 ,但也存在人力资源流失、资源配置和管理不合理以及污染严重等问题     

我国居民储蓄高度增长的原因及对策分析

2006年初,我国城乡居民储蓄高达16亿元,居民储蓄的高速增长,一方面为我国经济建设提供了资金储备,另一方面也影响了资金向投资的转化。高储蓄现象的形成,主要受我国居民收入水平、消费水平、投资渠道、生命周期等因素的影响。而要改变这种现象,既要完善社会保障体系,又要调整国民收入分配关系,还需转变居民个人理财观念。     

中国储蓄率高增长的理性分析

近年来,我国居民储蓄存款规模不断扩大,居民储蓄率保持高位运行.高储蓄率为银行提供了充裕的信贷资金,为国民经济发展做出了巨大的贡献.然而,不断攀升的存款余额也折射出我国经济和社会发展中的一些现实问题.因此,对形成储蓄率持续稳定增长的因素及其产生的影响进行理性分析,具有重要的现实指导意义.     

居民储蓄存款的迅速增长及其对国民经济发展的影响

改革开放以来 ,我国居民储蓄存款增长迅速 ,它是多种因素综合作用的结果。居民储蓄存款的迅速增长对推动我国国民经济的持续、快速发展及相对缓解我国经济增长严重依赖外资的状况发挥了积极作用 ,但是目前过高的储蓄率又在一定程度上抑制着我国国民经济的健康发展