储蓄率与经济增长关系——兼论索洛增长模型结论在中国的适用性

针对储蓄率影响经济增长存在的问题,基于1978-2007年的宏观数据,采用VAR模型分析了中国储蓄率与经济增长关系。结果表明,储蓄率对经济增长的影响虽然具有显著性,但影响程度相对较低。以中国的数据为例,不支持高的储蓄率带来高的经济增长率,索洛模型的主要结论在中国不适用。     

人口结构转变、家庭教育投资与中国经济增长

从一个两期的世代交叠模型入手,分析并通过数据模拟验证了在家庭和社会两种养老模式共同作用下人口结构转变对家庭教育投资与经济增长的影响。研究发现:人口年龄结构变动与人均储蓄率正相关;而家庭赡养支出比例与人均储蓄率负相关;人口年龄结构变动与教育投资率负相关;而家庭赡养支出比例与教育投资率呈倒U型变化;人口年龄结构变化、家庭赡养支出比例对经济增长的影响不确定。数值模拟结果显示:在当前条件下,中国人口年龄结构变动促进经济增长,而家庭赡养支出比例增大抑制经济增长。     

Changing patterns in the allocation of savings,investments and debts within couple relationships

Using data from the British Household Panel Study (BHPS) from 1995 to 2005 we examine the nature of the allocation of savings, investments and debts between heterosexual couple members, how these vary by individual and household characteristics, and how these patterns vary over a ten‐year time horizon. We find savings are more commonly held in joint names than investments or debts and there is evidence of an increasing independence in financial arrangements between couple members throughout the period 1995 to 2005. Controlling for age and other factors, cohabitation reduces the likelihood of shared financial arrangements. Both partners' labour market income affects the likelihood of having any savings or investments for both men and women but as men's labour income increases, the likelihood of men having jointly held savings and investments with their female partner reduces. Psychological well‐being is improved where individuals have any savings or investments either solely or jointly held with their partner.     

家庭储蓄养老平衡模型构造与实证分析

由于传统家庭保障变化及土地保障的“虚化” ,人们所依靠的传统家庭保障方式发生了变异 ,开始把目光转移到个人储蓄养老上。问题是苏南农村居民这种储蓄方式是否能够承担起全部的养老生活费用 ?本文通过构造储蓄养老平衡模型来评估这种储蓄养老模式的养老能力。     

医疗保险个人账户制的激励性初探

社会医疗保险中道德风险的存在是医疗费用日益增高的原因之一。个人账户制作为一种激励性医保制度 ,可以促使人们采取更健康的生活方式、更注重预防保健 ,从而有效降低道德风险 ,并使社会的福利得到了改进。个人账户制的合理构建是该制度能发挥功效的基础     

Does the composition of financial services in a community relate to an Individual’s savings account ownership?

This study extends research on financial inclusion by exploring the composition of financial services within communities. Using propensity-score-adjusted probit regression, we explored associations with savings account ownership using restriscted-access, cross-sectional data from the 2015 National Financial Capability Study with merged financial services and community demographic data. Living in communities where the density of banks and credit unions outnumbered that of alternative financial services was associated with lower-income households’ greater probability of owning a savings account, all else being equal. These results have implications for efforts aiming to improve financial inclusion.     

居民储蓄的影响因素分析与实证研究

本文在分析IrvingFisher跨时消费理论的基础上 ,通过对我国居民储蓄水平进行的逐步回归分析 ,探讨了影响城乡居民储蓄水平各种因素的显著水平及贡献度 ,得出了收入具有显著正效应、名义利率具有微弱负效应、实际利率具有微弱正效应等结论。本文的政策含义是 :不宜采用利率政策促进储蓄向消费的转化。     

重化工产业结构、收入不确定性与居民储蓄——来自山西省的经验证据

借鉴预防性储蓄理论,通过对山西居民高储蓄现象的实证分析,发现重化工产业结构存在高储蓄效应。其传导机制是:在重化工产业结构下,工业的波动性大,居民收入不确定性大,导致居民预防性储蓄较大,从而表现出高储蓄率现象。本文的启示是:我国产业结构的持续重型化导致的较强的经济增长波动性,可能是居民储蓄率不断上涨的重要原因之一。其警示意义是:保持产业结构的适度均衡对于经济的长期协调发展是必要的。     

让民间的资本充分涌流

如何更好、更快的让居民手中资本效益发挥出来,是保证我国经济持续、健康发展的一个重点。解决这一问题根本措施,是制度的创新。努力从观念的变革、渠道的疏通、政策的保证等方面做好工作。让创造财富的居民手中资本充分涌流出来,在我国经济发展中发挥更大的作用。