雄安新区科技企业创新能力评价研究

科技企业是实现科技创新的驱动者和科技成果转化的重要载体,也是推动研究开发的重要参与者,科学评价科技企业创新能力有助于企业自身不断发展壮大。在分析国内外新区科技企业创新驱动发展相关理论研究的基础上,从研发投入、研发基础、研发效益和现代科技四个角度,运用层次分析法构建科技企业创新能力评价系统,并通过实证分析说明评价系统的可靠性;根据评价系统测算出现阶段雄安新区科技企业创新能力,通过与成熟新区科技企业的比较,发现其短板和不足,力图为决策者科学合理评价、管理科技企业创新发展提供有益参考。     

Inference and Decision Making for 21st-Century Drug Development and Approval

ABSTRACT

The cost and time of pharmaceutical drug development continue to grow at rates that many say are unsustainable. These trends have enormous impact on what treatments get to patients, when they get them and how they are used. The statistical framework for supporting decisions in regulated clinical development of new medicines has followed a traditional path of frequentist methodology. Trials using hypothesis tests of “no treatment effect” are done routinely, and the p-value < 0.05 is often the determinant of what constitutes a “successful” trial. Many drugs fail in clinical development, adding to the cost of new medicines, and some evidence points blame at the deficiencies of the frequentist paradigm. An unknown number effective medicines may have been abandoned because trials were declared “unsuccessful” due to a p-value exceeding 0.05. Recently, the Bayesian paradigm has shown utility in the clinical drug development process for its probability-based inference. We argue for a Bayesian approach that employs data from other trials as a “prior” for Phase 3 trials so that synthesized evidence across trials can be utilized to compute probability statements that are valuable for understanding the magnitude of treatment effect. Such a Bayesian paradigm provides a promising framework for improving statistical inference and regulatory decision making.     

朱熹和孟子解读舜之“怨慕”的不同逻辑

对于舜之“怨慕”,朱熹作出了不同于孟子的解读。这是基于心学、理学内在逻辑的不同。孟子作为私学之儒,和孔子一样,是主张士君子的阳刚人格的,并且从性向善的人性论出发,协调义与利、公与私的关系,而以君臣父子关系都属对待关系;依此,将舜之“怨慕”解读为舜对父母的既怨又慕。朱熹则作为官学之儒,以所谓“气质之性”协调理学先驱荀子的性向恶论,以二歧化思维把天地之性、天理绝对化,以公去私,视君臣父子关系则为下对上的绝对服从关系;依此解读,舜之“怨”只能是自怨。     

Does a universal non-contributory social pension make sense for rural China?

China’s pension reform during the past three decades has allowed a majority of China’s population to be covered by a pension scheme. Of particular note has been the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), a voluntary programme introduced starting in 2009. One goal of our analysis is to assess that pension scheme, using a variety of sources of information including data drawn from recent (2013 and 2015) nationwide China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Surveys (CHARLS). Our analysis involves an exploration of differences between the generosity and structure of the NRPS and other pension schemes currently in place. We also explore the feasibility of reforming the current “quasi-social pension” component of the NRPS by substituting a universal non-contributory social pension pillar. In connection with our assessment of the NRPS, we note the unusually low benefit levels for rural China.     

社会转型与观念变迁--以“道德缺失”为中心的考察

尽管“道德缺失”是转型期中国一个不容忽视的社会问题，但当代的“道德缺失”现象并非严重到了危机阶段，中国古代也不是“道德天堂”。今天的道德困境可以归因于社会环境的巨大变化。这种问题的解决，需依靠有效的维护机制作为保障。落实到根本，还是要大力发展经济，建设市民社会。     

页岩气开发环境风险的法律规制思考

目前，我国在页岩气开发的环境保护方面存在着大量的法律空白，往往只能参照环境保护法和矿产资源法中的相关规定进行规制，无法有效解决页岩气开发暴露出来的环境问题。页岩气开发环境风险的法律规制，核心目的就是解决当前页岩气开发中的环境风险，促进页岩气开发与环境保护相协调，实现能源开发的可持续发展。在页岩气开发环境风险的法律规制方面，英美两国已经探索出一些经验和制度。积极借鉴国外有益经验，努力改进和完善我国应对页岩气开发环境风险的法律规制，对实现我国页岩气开采的经济效益、社会效益和环境效益三者的统一具有重要的现实意义。     

进化论思潮与唯物史观的传播——近代中国两大思想关系刍议

进化论思想与唯物史观同为近代中国影响广泛的思想。二者的传入时间接近，并且都经历了中国化的过程。随着进化论思想在现代遭到了越来越多的批判和质疑，唯物史观早期传播和发展的历程也经历了重新的审视。文章从近代思想史发展的事实出发，重新厘清两种思想的关系，并具体论证马克思的唯物史观能否从广义上归结为一种进化论的思想，以及进化论思想在中国是否经历了一个向唯物史观转变的历程。     

查尔斯·泰勒的脱嵌理论及其影响

嵌入和脱嵌在泰勒的思想体系中扮演着关键性的角色。在“大脱嵌”之后，现代世俗社会才最终形成。从前现代社会到现代社会的转型涉及到三个不同的方面:自我认同的转型、社会想象的转型和宇宙想象的转型。前现代的“可渗透的自我”深深的嵌入到迷魅的宇宙和社会之中，并通过这种嵌入而获得对自身身份的认同。随着大脱嵌的到来，自我脱嵌于旧有的宇宙与社会，对自身、社会和宇宙的想象模式都发生了根本性的变化。大脱嵌不但带来了自我认同的转型，同时也带来了社会想象和宇宙想象的转型。因此，追溯大脱嵌的最初的源头也就具有了重要的意义。其实，早在轴心时期的宗教中就已经隐含了脱嵌的源头，个体性的自我已经初具雏形。     

The disembedded digital economy: Social protection for new economy employment in China

This research focuses upon employment in the new economy, exploring labour protection and social protection in the digital age in China. Through an empirical survey conducted in three Chinese cities, social insurance and the labour rights of employees in the digital economic sector, such as gig employment, e-commerce, and various other forms of online employment, have been examined in-depth. This study reveals new regulatory loopholes in the digital labour market, which have substantially eroded the basis of social policy arrangements in China, “softening” participation in social insurance branches and compliance with labour regulations remarkably. Drawing upon the theoretical concepts of Polanyi on embeddedness and disembeddedness, we argue that the digital employment sector in China has been increasingly disembedded from social institutions and social control. The new configuration in the digital field of social policy requires novel conceptual models and institutional settings to cope with increasing social risks in virtual spaces.     

Institutional evolution and abrupt change: Reforming the administration of social assistance in Finland

Historical institutionalist studies have explained institutional change as resulting from critical junctures that interrupt long periods of stability or from endogenous, incremental evolution. Building on these theories, discursive institutionalists have focused on the roles of agency, ideas and discourse as explainers of change. Combining these approaches, this article analyses Finland’s decision in 2014 to transfer the administration of basic social assistance from municipalities to the central government. This study demonstrates that institutional change can be both abrupt and evolutionary. Due to sudden, exceptional political circumstances, the decision in question was made quickly and under pressure, circumventing possible veto players. However, it was possible only because of the incremental, endogenous change that had occurred in the way in which social assistance was administered at the municipal level. It enabled a change in political discourse, which eroded the credibility of the ideational frames that policy actors had previously utilised to reject the centralised model.