Studying categorical data over time

A review of recently developed simple techniques for analyzing data in the form of proportions from replicated, cross-sectional, sample surveys. (A) One variable over time—tests for homogeneity, pooling homogeneous proportions, tests for linear trends with as few as three time points, tests for departures from linearity; (B) Two variables with a constant percentage difference—four fold tables as rudimentary causal models, decomposing change with linear flow graphs; (C) Extension of the flow graph techniques to—three or more variables and changing coefficients; (D) Comments implying panel designs are somewhat over-rated and successive cross-sections somewhat under-rated.     

Size and duration of empires: Systematics of size

Areas of the world's three largest empires or states at any given time are listed at 100- or 50-year intervals, from 3000 b.c. on. Area measurement definitions and techniques are described. Major empire size has tended to increase, approaching the world's dry earth area in an approximately logistic way. This pattern suggests that a world state is still many centuries away. Sudden increases in empire size have occurred around 2800 b.c. due to emergence of cities, around 600 b.c. due to a power delegation breakthrough, and around 1600 a.d. due to a communication speed revolution. A graph of the world's largest empire areas throughout times offers somewhat novel perspectives on world history, making one realize the Western bias of many “world history” texts. Areas of 20 largest states that ever existed are listed. Subsequent papers will deal with historical periods in more detail.     

How trade/GNP ratio decreases with country size

The ratio of a country's foreign trade (i.e., exports plus imports) to its GNP has a known tendency to decrease with country size. Previous studies have used a single year's data; but trade fluctuates greatly from year to year. This paper makes available a compilation of 1953–1972 export/GNP and import/GNP figures for 110 countries. The average import/GNP figure is found to correlate strongly with population size; the simple expression, Imports/GNP = 40 $\text{P}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>?1</mtext><mtext>3</mtext>}}$, applies, within a factor of 2, in 94% of cases. No correlation with development level can be seen. The United States data throughout its history (1799–1972) follow the same inverse cube root pattern, but with a constant of 20 instead of 40. Correlation is much poorer in the case of export/GNP ration. Export and import figures are only marginally correlated to each other.     

Household migration and the labor market position of married women

The present paper conceptualizes labor force participation among U.S. wives as both a determinant and consequence of household migration. A theoretical justification is provided for decomposing these relationships by occupational position of the wife. Applying log-linear models to data from the 1970 One-in-a-Thousand Public Use Sample, we corroborate previous research in that, on the average, the likelihood of interstate migration between 1965 and 1970 was greatest among families in which the wife was not employed prior to the move. However, among employed wives, those classified as professionals or managers were also found to accentuate the probability of household migration, particularly if the husband was not employed in 1965. The implication is that all types of employment by the wife need not limit family mobility as previous studies have suggested. Although migration was found to have a disrupting effect on the continuity of employment among most wives, this effect was most in evidence among wives employed in blue collar occupations. The data suggest the need for a careful reappraisal of traditional economic notions of migration, particularly as they apply to married women.     

Chance in Guttman scaling

In their recent paper (1977, Social Science Research, 6, 188–196), Kenny and Rubin offer an interpretation of “chance” in Guttman scaling. Their approach is based on the matrix of probabilities p_ij, giving the chance that the ith respondent passes the jth item. It is shown that their interpretation of chance in fact corresponds to a stochastic model of a perfect unidimensional scale. An alternative condition for chance based on the matrix of p_ij's is proposed. This is then proved to be equivalent to the usual interpretation.     

The impact of anti-Vietnam demonstrations upon national public opinion and military indicators

In an attempt to assess the national impact of anti-war protest, 15 major anti-Vietnam demonstrations occurring in the United States from 1965 through 1971 were analyzed for their effects upon Gallup public opinion survey data, American troop strength, and American munitions expenditures. While weak and short-term counterproductive effects appeared for two opinion indicators, an equally likely conclusion is that the demonstrations had little or no lasting impact whatsoever. The possible reasons for this finding, and its social implications, are discussed.     

来华犹太人的国籍和法律问题(1840-1945)

1840年后,来华的犹太人主要有三大群体:第一是从中东、南亚和东南亚来华经商办实业的塞法迪犹太人;第二是为逃避反犹恶浪、革命和内战来华谋生的俄国犹太人;第三是从纳粹统治下的欧洲亡命来华的犹太难民。对这三大犹太移民群体来华概况及其法律地位,特别是国籍问题进行比较研究,是在来华犹太人研究方面的深化和新领域。     

从“嗑瓜子事件”看教师教育惩戒权规制

我国法律明确规定班主任有权采取适当方式批评教育学生，但对何谓适度并未作出清晰界定。因此，班主任批评教育学生时容易将惩戒越界为体罚，同时，因为缺乏评价标准，涉及惩罚学生的事件往往成为舆论热点。2014年底，湖南省娄底卫校某班主任因惩罚学生而引发的“嗑瓜子事件”，迅速成为网络热点，再次证明了规制教师教育惩戒权的必要性。应在坚持反对体罚的前提下，厘定“教育惩戒”与“变相体罚”两个概念的关系，并对教育惩戒权行使作详细规定。     

吉林省廉租房政策实施效果、存在问题及对策

立足于吉林省廉租房政策实施效果的全面调查数据,概述了吉林省廉租房政策实施效果,以独特的视角深入分析了廉租房政策推行过程中出现的一些亟需解决的共性问题,提出了针对性的解决对策。     

构建开放型经济新体制打造大连市对外开放新优势

改革开放以来，大连市确立并坚持实施“外向牵动”、“开放引领”等经济发展战略，逐步形成了全方位多层次宽领域的对外开放格局，初步建立起开放型经济体系。依托这一体系，全市国际贸易快速发展，出口商品结构不断优化，境外投资持续增加，服务贸易逐渐扩大。大连市要引导开放向纵深发展，必须在强化原有重点园区开放效应的基础上，抓住自由贸易区建设的机遇，构建对外开放新平台，促成梯次开放格局。“构建开放型经济新体制”是党的十八届三中全会部署的改革重点任务之一。大连市如何立足区位优势，抢抓战略机遇，进一步优化投资和贸易管理体制，建立健全相关政策体系，培育有序、透明、法治化的营商环境，引导开放向纵深发展，赢取对外开放的新优势，成为大连市全面落实三中全会改革部署的重要任务。