区域自主创新实力动态评价——基于改进二次加权法

建立区域自主创新实力评价指标体系,运用改进归一化法和变异系数法对数据进行标准化处理,确定权重,利用改进二次加权法计算2001—2010年中国大陆31个省、市、自治区的区域自主创新实力加权平均值,进行动态评价与分类比较分析。研究表明:2001—2010年期间中国区域自主创新实力从评价值排序看,地域差异明显,东部地区较强,中部地区居中,西部地区较弱。主要原因是东部地区的资金、政策、人才和创新载体的优势,中部、东北地区产业结构和企业创新理念的制约以及西部经济、教育和科研水平相对较低。研究认为:自主创新实力较弱的区域可以通过增加R&D投入、引进创新型人才、优化产业结构、完善创新扶持政策、增强产学研协同创新等手段,提高区域自主创新实力。     

下岗女工身份构建的叙事分析

“下岗女工”是在中国经济体制转型期涌现出的新兴的社会群体之一, 她们面临着从“半边天”到“边缘群体”到再就业的个人经历及身份转变。其身份的变化值得社会语言学和语篇分析界人士关注。下岗女工关于身份建构的自述给予语篇分析者重要启示: 人们的社会身份不是先在的、制约人们言语行为的固定的社会范畴; 人们的语言使用是在一定的社会、文化和历史背景下对其身份的动态构建; 社会群体的划分及范畴的界定是国家机构为了某种目的所赋予的理论描述。     

论清中后期话本小说文体之变异

清中后期话本小说文体全面突破了传统文体规范,出现了篇章体制与叙事模式笔记小说化等文体变异现象。这种文体变异与话本小说文体观念的极端片面文人化发展直接相关,实质上是以笔记体的文体宗旨、叙事精神改造话本小说原有文体传统的结果。话本小说文体变异是创作走向衰亡的产物,而文体变异又反过来加速了创作的衰亡。     

Hungarian verbal puzzles and the intensity of language contact

Grammaticality judgments of bilingual Hungarians in Slovakia and Ukraine vs. Yugoslavia show that overt objects are much more acceptable in the northern Slavic countries than in Yugoslavia. Two conflicting hypotheses have been advanced to explain this difference. The structural hypothesis claims that Serbian cliticization is responsible, while the socio-historical hypothesis claims that the difference in grammaticality judgments is due to a difference in the duration of Hungarian–Slavic language contact north of and south of present-day Hungary. Data from a seven-country survey (N = 846) show that there is a split between judgments in the northern vs. southern Slavic countries across a wide range of linguistic variables, which discredits the structural explanation for the object pro-drop variable, at least as the sole cause of change. Moreover, statistical analyses of 24 variables provide substantial empirical verification of Thomason and Kaufman's 'two crucial parameters of intensity of contact in a borrowing situation': time and level of bilingualism. It is shown that the 250 years of contact between Hungarian and Serbian has resulted in much smaller contact effects than the thousand-year-old contact of Hungarian with the northern Slavic languages. Bilingual Hungarians who constitute a local minority in the settlements where they live systematically favor the contact-induced variants of variables vis-a`-vis those who constitute a local majority.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed: Charles Antaki and Sue Widdicombe (eds.)., Identities in Talk Tove Skutnab‐Kangas, Linguistic Genocide in Education–or Worldwide Diversity and Human Rights? Marnie Holborow, The Politics of English: A Marxist View of Language Clare Mar‐Molinero, The Spanish Speaking World: A Practical Introduction to Sociolinguistic Issues Gail E. Hawisher and Cynthia L. Selfe (eds.), Global Literacies and the World‐Wide‐Web Justine Coupland (ed.), Small Talk Francesca Bargiela‐Chiappini and Catherine Nickerson (eds.)., Writing Business: Genres, Media and Discourses Geoffrey Lewis, The Turkish Language Reform: A Catastrophic Success Kenneth J. Gergen, An Invitation to Social Construction James Milroy and Lesley Milroy, Authority in Language: Investigating Standard English Linda Thomas and Sha¨n Wareing, Language, Society and Power: An Introduction     

The Extremal Dependence Measure and Asymptotic Independence

Abstract

Extremal dependence analysis assesses the tendency of large values of components of a random vector to occur simultaneously. This kind of dependence information can be qualitatively different than what is given by correlation which averages over the total body of the joint distribution. Also, correlation may be completely inappropriate for heavy tailed data. We study the extremal dependence measure (EDM), a measure of the tendency of large values of components of a random vector to occur simultaneously and show consistency of an estimator of the EDM. We also show asymptotic normality of an idealized estimator in a restricted case of multivariate regular variation where scaling functions do not have to be estimated.     

Some Asymptotic Formulas for a Brownian Motion With a Regular Variation From a Parabolic Domain

Consider a Brownian motion with a regular variation starting at an interior point of a domain D in R^{d + 1}, d ? 1 and let τ_D denote the first time the Brownian motion exits from D. Estimates with exact constants for the asymptotics of log?P(τ_D > T) are given for T → ∞, depending on the shape of the domain D and the order of the regular variation. Furthermore, the asymptotically equivalence are obtained. The problem is motivated by the early results of Lifshits and Shi, Li in the first exit time, and Karamata in the regular variation. The methods of proof are based on their results and the calculus of variations.     

On Locating and Characterizing Parameter Variation by the Mosumsq Test Statistic

In modelling a system structure it is often important to test the constancy of the structural parameters. If the hypothesis of constant parameters is rejected we wish to characterize the parameter variation. In this paper we examine the usefulness of the MOSUMSQ test statistics for locating and characterizing the parameter variation in linear regression models. The means and the variances of the test statistics are given for non-random parameter variation. The observed path of the MOSUMSQ test statistics provides valuable knowledge about the time of the onset of the parameter change and whether it is instantaneous or gradual.     

A Generalized Class of Ratio Type Exponential Estimators of Population Mean Under Linear Transformation of Auxiliary Variable

Recently, Shabbir and Gupta [Shabbir, J. and Gupta, S. (2011). On estimating finite population mean in simple and stratified random sampling. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, 40(2), 199–212] defined a class of ratio type exponential estimators of population mean under a very specific linear transformation of auxiliary variable. In the present article, we propose a generalized class of ratio type exponential estimators of population mean in simple random sampling under a very general linear transformation of auxiliary variable. Shabbir and Gupta's [Shabbir, J. and Gupta, S. (2011). On estimating finite population mean in simple and stratified random sampling. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, 40(2), 199–212] class of estimators is a particular member of our proposed class of estimators. It has been found that the optimal estimator of our proposed generalized class of estimators is always more efficient than almost all the existing estimators defined under the same situations. Moreover, in comparison to a few existing estimators, our proposed estimator becomes more efficient under some simple conditions. Theoretical results obtained in the article have been verified by taking a numerical illustration. Finally, a simulation study has been carried out to see the relative performance of our proposed estimator with respect to some existing estimators which are less efficient under certain conditions as compared to the proposed estimator.     

Parallel tempering for dynamic generalized linear models

ABSTRACT

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can be used for statistical inference. The methods are time-consuming due to time-vary. To resolve these problems, parallel tempering (PT), as a parallel MCMC method, is tried, for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs), as well as the several optimal properties of our proposed method. In PT, two or more samples are drawn at the same time, and samples can exchange information with each other. We also present some simulations of the DGLMs in the case and provide two applications of Poisson-type DGLMs in financial research.