Cases of real-life policies related to risk: How can they enhance risk analysis and risk science?

Policies on risk constitute a core topic of risk analysis and risk science, and it is common at risk conferences to present real-life cases of such policies, for example related to the handling of climate change and pandemics. Although these are of broad interest, showing how important issues in society are dealt with, it can be questioned to what extent and how these cases contribute to enhancing risk analysis and risk science. The present paper addresses this concern. It is argued that, in order to learn from the cases, they need in general to be more thoroughly followed up with discussions of concepts, principles, approaches, and methods for assessing, characterizing, communicating and handling risk. Describing a governmental policy on, for example, the handling of COVID-19 is a point of departure for interesting discussions concerning its justification and performance, in particular in relation to risk and the most updated knowledge from the risk analysis field. Such discussions are, however, often lacking. The paper points to some key obstacles and challenges for the learning process, including the difficulty of distinguishing between policies, policy analysis, and politics.     

On testes for threshold–type nonlinearity in irregulaly spaced time series

Formulating the model first in continuous time, we have developed a state space approach to the problem of testing for threshold-type nonlinearity when the data are irregularly spaced.     

Robustness to non-normality and autocorrelation of individuals control charts

This paper studies the effects of non-normality and autocorrelation on the performances of various individuals control charts for monitoring the process mean and/or variance. The traditional Shewhart X chart and moving range (MR) chart are investigated as well as several types of exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) charts and combinations of control charts involving these EWMA charts. It is shown that the combination of the X and MR charts will not detect small and moderate parameter shifts as fast as combinations involving the EWMA charts, and that the performana of the X and MR charts is very sensitive to the normality assumption. It is also shown that certain combinations of EWMA charts can be designed to be robust to non-normality and very effective at detecting small and moderate shifts in the process mean and/or variance. Although autocorrelation can have a significant effect on the in-control performances of these combinations of EWMA charts, their relative out-of-control performances under independence are generally maintained for low to moderate levels of autocorrelation.     

公司实际税收负担的财务因素——基于房地产上市公司的经验研究

房地产是高税负行业。1994年到2009年以来平均实际税负高达31．59％。考察跨度16年,样本容量109家上市房地产公司的财务数据,发现净资产收益率、总资产、财务杠杆三个因素和公司实际税负的显著正相关关系以及固定资产占比的抵税效应。     

以绿色金融政策促进绿色消费发展

在市场经济条件下促进经济绿色化发展,金融机制是推进绿色消费的基本手段。通过发展绿色金融、创新绿色消费金融机制、完善绿色信贷制度、建立绿色保险体系、构筑绿色社会信用体系等,并配以相应的环境经济政策和产业准入政策,促进绿色消费发展,发挥其引导和促进作用。     

节约型高校建设与示范

节能减排已成为当代社会科学发展的主旋律。高校节约型校园建设是应＂两型校园建设＂的要求,并作为一项长期工作写入了多数高校总体规划中,实现节支和绿色生态校园的双赢。大学作为社会文明与进步的播火者,在国家国策的践行中,同样可率先垂范和培养具生态文明理念的接班人。要固守低碳生活的理念,将节俭美德作为高校育人的重要内容。该文将对正在进行的节约型校园建设,提供一些有益的经验参照。     

国家公务员考录政策的性别平等分析

性别平等是公务员考录制度设计的一项基本考量,既是完善公务员制度的基本要求,也是实现男女平等的现实需要。公务员录用中的性别平等需要通过性别公平来实现,具体包括性别中立、性别差异和性别倾斜等三种策略。究竟采用哪一种策略,取决于人们对男女间在能力、需求等方面的性别差异的认识。当前的学术研究并未在整体上提供关于公务员能力是否存有性别差异,以及在哪些方面、何种程度上存有性别差异的有效支持性论据。这就决定了性别中立应当成为公务员考录制度设计的基本原则。     

战后初期日本国家战略的三大转变及其原因分析

战后初期,日本政府开始反思战前的国家战略,并结合国际格局的转变及国内实际,确立了以经济主义为核心、以日美结盟为保障、以面向海洋为依托的战略目标,通过实施国家战略的三大转变：从发展策略的角度,实现了由＂军事立国＂向＂贸易立国＂的转变;从外交策略的角度,实现了由抗衡欧美向日美结盟方向的转变;从地缘政治的角度,实现了由亚洲大陆向海洋方向的转变。这三大战略的制定和实施,为日本实现经济腾飞和确立经济大国的地位奠定了坚实的基础。     

中国农村金融发展对农村经济发展的动态影响研究——基于状态空间模型的实证检验

本文通过构建状态空间模型,实证分析了我国农村金融发展对农村经济发展的动态影响力,结果发现：农村金融发展对农村经济发展的影响显著,总体上看正向效应要大于负向效应,但是影响力还有待提高。要充分发挥农村金融的作用,必须解决两个金融瓶颈问题,即固定资产投资效率不高和“金融抑制”效应明显的问题。这两个瓶颈问题可以归结为农村投资问题：投资力度不够,投资效率不高。只有解决了农村投资问题,才能充分发挥农村金融作用以促进农村经济可持续发展。     

国家建设:发展中国家政治发展的历史逻辑

二战后,伴随着新兴国家的大量出现,西方兴起了研究政治发展的高潮。但是由于认识上的偏差,政治发展理论并没有为广大发展中国家政治发展提供有效的指导。通过对发展中国家政治发展困境的思考和对近代以来欧洲国家建设的回顾,学者们认识到国家建设对于后发展中国家的重要意义。只有通过有效的国家建设,发展中国家才能摆脱落后的状态,实现国家的发展。