Estimation of scale functions to model heteroscedasticity by regularised kernel-based quantile methods

A main goal of regression is to derive statistical conclusions on the conditional distribution of the output variable Y given the input values x. Two of the most important characteristics of a single distribution are location and scale. Regularised kernel methods (RKMs) – also called support vector machines in a wide sense – are well established to estimate location functions like the conditional median or the conditional mean. We investigate the estimation of scale functions by RKMs when the conditional median is unknown, too. Estimation of scale functions is important, e.g. to estimate the volatility in finance. We consider the median absolute deviation (MAD) and the interquantile range as measures of scale. Our main result shows the consistency of MAD-type RKMs.     

欠发达地区农村突发性群体事件成因及对策分析

一些欠发达地区农村由于片面追求经济社会跨越式发展的单向度思维,导致各类问题和矛盾负面影响放大,突发性群体事件时有发生,并成为影响农村社会稳定的重要因素。分析总结近年来欠发达地区农村突发性群体事件的成因类型,提出有较强针对性的对策措施,维护广大群众的合法权益,是公共治理部门践行“三个代表”、构建和谐社会急需思考的问题。     

青年农民工越轨行为的社会心理学分析

青年农民工越轨问题影响到城市的稳定,青年农民工越轨问题的社会心理原因主要是因为社会排斥、挫折感和相对剥夺感引起的心理失衡,而处于心理失衡中的青年农民工又缺乏必要的社会支持机制,因而引起青年农民工的社会越轨问题。     

Social support and life satisfaction among gay men in Spain

Since the early 1960s, social support has been a topic of interest and study among social psychologists and other professionals investigating social issues. In spite of this growing interest by the scientific community, there are few studies on social support in the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) community, and even fewer on the impact of social support on life satisfaction. In this regard, in Spain, there are very few psychosocial studies on homosexual groups. In the present study, the authors analyze social support data and life satisfaction in a sample of 220 gay residents of Málaga and Sevilla. The results show that friends are the most important source of overall social support, and that, in the family, sisters provide the most support and contribute to increased life satisfaction. On the other hand, social support had an effect on the level of life satisfaction, although the results indicate that factors associated with homosexual identity are the best predictors of life satisfaction. The implications of these results are discussed as well as potential future research.     

An Exploration of Sexual Minority Stress Across the Lines of Gender and Sexual Identity

Despite growing evidence to suggest that gays, lesbians, and bisexuals experience a range of stressors and consequences related to their sexual minority status, no known studies to date have employed focus group discussion to explore and document their perceptions of sexual minority stress. In this exploratory study, we present focus group data on a range of sexual minority stressors as described by 43 gay men, lesbians, and bisexual men and women. We explore gender and sexual identity differences in the respondents' perceptions of heteronormativity, disclosure issues in different social settings, sources of support, and strategies for coping with stress. Respondents reported that women's same-sex relationships were eroticized and distorted to accommodate heterosexual male desire, while men were negatively depicted as sexually promiscuous and deviant. These differing stereotypes held important consequences for disclosure decisions and affected men's and women's social interactions with heterosexual men. Bisexual respondents reported unique strategies to cope with exclusion and isolation associated with misunderstandings about their sexual identities. Directions for future research on sexual minority stress are discussed.     

外出务工对农村老年人家庭子女养老分工影响研究

文章利用西安交通大学人口与发展研究所2009年在安徽省巢湖市进行的＂安徽省老年人生活福利状况＂抽样调查数据,采用多元Logistic回归分析了农村老年人家庭儿子与女儿外出务工状况对子女兄弟姐妹养老分工的影响。结果表明,外出务工对子女养老分工有显著影响,并且儿子和女儿外出务工的影响存在显著性别差异。儿子全部外出务工,子女之间倾向不平均分担对老年父母的经济支持,女儿全部外出务工,子女之间倾向于共同平均分担经济支持;儿子全部外出务工或女儿全部外出务工,子女之间都倾向于不给予老年父母生活照料。     

Estimating the probability of obtaining nonfeasible parameter estimates of the generalized pareto distribution

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution. Both the method of moments and probability-weighted moments do not guarantee that their respective estimates will be consistent with the observed data. We present simple programs to predict the probability of obtaining such nonfeasible estimates. Our estimation techniques are based on results from intensive simulations and the successful modelling of the lower tail of the distribution of the upper bound of the support. More simulations are performed to validate the new procedure.     

大学生的主观幸福感与社会支持的相关研究

本文旨在研究大学生的主观幸福感与社会支持的关系。问卷调查结果显示:社会支持与主观幸福感呈显著正相关;情感支持对主观幸福感预测力最佳,异性朋友支持对主观幸福感的预测力最佳。因此,建立良好的朋友关系、师生关系,有助于提高大学生的主观幸福感。     

调适与演进:无文字民族文化传承探析

无文字民族文化传承从传统到现代,历经口头语言、实践记忆、实物图符、文字借用、传媒介质、网络空间等形式,各种传承方式彼此之间交叉互渗,盘根错节,共同呈现和统一于文化"一体"之中。文化传承在不同的生存环境、时代背景或社会技术条件下存在着自我内在的调适机制,并随人类文化的发展永无完结地向前演进。     

江南古桥及文化的地域性功能研究

由于江南地区特殊的地理环境,江南古桥及文化发展兴盛,据此对江南古桥及文化所赋予的多元化和更深层次的区域性的社会、经济和文化功能及特质进行了深入的调查和研究,从而认为江南古桥不仅是古代江南百姓的生存依托和江南商业经济的枢纽,更为重要的是,江南古桥在与江南社会不断交融的历史进程中,与当地的社会风俗、奇人逸事、风水玄学、政治宗教等紧密相联,浸染了鲜明的地域文化色彩,充分显示出江南古桥及文化的重要地位和独特价值,也成为江南地域宝贵的物质和精神的双重财富。