Practice Wisdom Meets Evidence-Based Practice: Building Capacity in Agencies

Agencies have a need to develop and evaluate therapeutic practices that show efficacy in treating specific client problems. University-agency collaborations combine the wisdom of practitioners with research skills that appraise evidence of efficacy, operationalize concepts and skills, and identify and implement evaluation methods. This article discusses the processes involved as practitioners and administrators collaborated with university researchers to transform a well-established mutual aid (MA) model of group work into an evidence-based model that showed efficacy in preventing substance use with adolescent populations. A case study will include the phases of the collaboration including relationship building, reviews of similar programs, identification of appropriate evaluation measures, development of a curricular-based manual and analysis and interpretation of the data for use in applying for funding. Implications for agency practice that respond to current demands in social services will be discussed.     

State of the Art in Risk Analysis of Workforce Criticality Influencing Disaster Preparedness for Interdependent Systems

The objective of this article is to discuss a needed paradigm shift in disaster risk analysis to emphasize the role of the workforce in managing the recovery of interdependent infrastructure and economic systems. Much of the work that has been done on disaster risk analysis has focused primarily on preparedness and recovery strategies for disrupted infrastructure systems. The reliability of systems such as transportation, electric power, and telecommunications is crucial in sustaining business processes, supply chains, and regional livelihoods, as well as ensuring the availability of vital services in the aftermath of disasters. There has been a growing momentum in recognizing workforce criticality in the aftermath of disasters; nevertheless, significant gaps still remain in modeling, assessing, and managing workforce disruptions and their associated ripple effects to other interdependent systems. The workforce plays a pivotal role in ensuring that a disrupted region continues to function and subsequently recover from the adverse effects of disasters. With this in mind, this article presents a review of recent studies that have underscored the criticality of workforce sectors in formulating synergistic preparedness and recovery policies for interdependent infrastructure and regional economic systems.     

关于量子控制系统的哲学思考

环境对量子控制系统的消相干揭示了一个事实,即量子世界里的系统将是一种全新的系统,它是某种开放的、数学的、并且是基于量子逻辑的系统。笔者认为,假如仍然还是立足经典思维,则系统的独立性将难以得到保证,传统的整体论也将变得自相矛盾。只有发展全新的"量子整体论",并在这种新的框架下去审视和建构量子系统,我们才有可能重新获得某种连贯一致的整体论。     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

Limit Theorems for Semi-Markov Queues and Their Applications

We begin by definition of semi-Markov flow and discussion of its properties. Asymptotic behavior of multi-server and single-server queueing systems is studied under assumption of time-compression or service time growth. The results obtained are used for calculation of large systems reliability. Statistical estimates of parameters involved are also provided.     

The service system challenges of work with juvenile justice involved young people in the Hunter Region,Australia

Current policies suggest that collaborative approaches are core to working effectively with juvenile justice involved young people. However, there is little research examining the workings of multi‐agency and collaborative endeavours in this field, or the experiences of the human service workers facilitating these connections. This paper reports on qualitative research that resulted from the Juvenile Justice and Education Equity in the Hunter Region project. Thirty‐eight human service workers were interviewed about their perceptions of the workings, strengths and challenges of the service system that supports young people who come into contact with the Children's Court in the Lower and Upper Hunter regions of New South Wales. Data analysis revealed three key themes related to (1) service gaps, cycles and maelstrom; (2) pursuing authentic service engagement; and (3) insider–outsider dynamics in service provision. Findings are discussed in relation to emerging practice and research agendas.     

Comparing policy advisory systems beyond the OECD: models,dynamics and the second-generation research agenda

ABSTRACT

The concept of “policy advisory systems” was introduced by Halligan in 1995 as a way to characterize and analyze the multiple sources of policy advice utilized by governments in policy-making processes. The concept has proved useful and has influenced thinking about both the nature of policy work in different advisory venues as well as how these systems change over time. However, to date this work has examined mainly cases of developed countries and its application to developing and transitional countries is less certain. This paper sets out existing models of policy advisory systems based on Halligan’s original thinking on the subject and assesses the findings of many existing studies into OECD countries that advisory systems have been changing as a result of the dual effects of increased use of external consultants and others sources of advice – “externalization” – and the increased use of partisan advice inside government itself – “politicization”. Determining whether or not such changes have also characterized the situations found in developing and transitional countries and at the international-domestic and state-sub-state levels is the subject of the papers in this Special Issue.     

The competing risks analysis for parallel and series systems using Type-II progressive censoring

Abstract

Recently, the study of the lifetime of systems in reliability and survival analysis in the presence of several causes of failure (competing risks) has attracted attention in the literature. In this paper, series and parallel systems with exponential lifetime for each item of the system are considered. Several causes of failure independently affect lifetime distributions and observations of failure times of the systems are considered under progressive Type-II censored scheme. For series systems, the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters are computed and confidence intervals for parameters of the model are obtained using Fisher information matrix. For parallel systems, the generalized EM algorithm which uses the Newton-Raphson algorithm inside the EM algorithm is used to compute the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters. Also, the standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are computed by using the supplemented EM algorithm. The simulation study confirms the good performance of the introduced approach.