我国实行通货膨胀目标法的可行性分析

我国现行的以货币供应量为中介目标的货币政策框架在可控性、可测性和相关性等方面均出现了明显的问题,理论界有人撰文提倡我国应实行西方一些国家目前操作得较好的通货膨胀目标法的货币政策框架。而目前我国央行的信誉度和货币政策的透明度均不高,货币政策存在多目标约束问题,货币市场和间接宏观调控体系不发达,以及在通货膨胀预测方面存在技术难题等,使得通货膨胀目标法在我国目前不具备实施的可行性,但可以将通货膨胀率作为测控目标。     

Microcomputers in Political Campaigns - Lessons from the Jackson Campaign in New York

Summary

Microcomputer information systems arc a popular and effective tool in political elections. The problems posed by elections to designers and developers are unique, due to their short duration and crisis-oriented atmosphere. Formal systems methodologies become more rather than less intense in such an environment. The Jesse Jackson campaign in the 1988 New York State Presidential primary is examined for lessons in systems design methodology. Voter targeting is identified as a key automation area, and particular targeting techniques are discussed.     

Seasonal Extraction in the Presence of Feedback

Time series seasonal extraction techniques are quite often applied in the context of a policy aimed at controlling the nonseasonal components of a time series. Monetary policies targeting the nonseasonal components of monetary aggregates are an example. Such policies can be studied as a quadratic optimal control model in which observations are contaminated by seasonal noise. Optimal extraction filters in such models do not correspond to univariate time series seasonal extraction filters. The linear quadratic control model components are nonorthogonal due to the presence of control feedback. This article presents the Kalman filter as a conceptual and computational device used to extract seasonal noise in the presence of feedback.     

Households’ preferences for attributes of Conditional Cash Transfer programmes: A choice experiment in Ghana

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) is increasingly being integrated into poverty reduction strategies in developing countries. However, debate remains over key elements of CCT programme design. Using a discrete choice model, this article examines Ghanaian households’ preferences regarding key CCT programme design elements including conditionality, targeting, and payment method. The results revealed a preference for CCT designs that target beneficiaries with limited or no productive capacity and CCT designs that are conditional on beneficiaries either investing in children's human capital or performing communal service, relative to unconditional programmes. Also, direct bank deposit was revealed as the preferred payment mode relative to receipt of cash payments or use of mobile money systems.     

Non‐take up of the supplemental child benefit for children with a disability in Belgium: A mixed‐method approach

Families with disabled children run a great risk of being poor. Although policies providing poor families with financial benefits should be effective in reducing poverty, the actual effectiveness is often jeopardized by the issue of non‐take up (NTU). Yet, NTU of benefits aimed at disabled children is for the most part uncharted territory. In this article, we fill this gap using a mixed‐methods approach to (a) estimate the magnitude and characteristics of NTU in the Belgian “supplemental child benefit” by drawing on a large‐scale administrative dataset on childhood disabilities and (b) explore the determinants of NTU by means of semistructured interviews with experts and parents. We estimate an NTU rate of at least 10%, a substantial figure given that the benefit is not income tested. This mainly concerns children with “less visible disabilities” (autism spectrum disorder and other intellectual and psychological disorders) and results from insufficient information provision about the benefit's existence and eligibility criteria; process costs, for instance, the complexity of the procedure; and the way the scale to assess a child's disability is constructed.     

SENTIENT CITIES Ambient intelligence and the politics of urban space

Increasing amounts of information processing capacity are embedded in the environment around us. The informational landscape is both a repository of data and also increasingly communicates and processes information. No longer confined to desk tops, computers have become both mobile and also disassembled. Many everyday objects now embed computer processing power, while others are activated by passing sensors, transponders and processors. The distributed processing in the world around us is often claimed to be a pervasive or ubiquitous computing environment: a world of ambient intelligence, happening around us on the periphery of our awareness, where our environment is not a passive backdrop but an active agent in organizing daily lives. The spaces around us are now being continually forged and reforged in informational and communicative processes. It is a world where we not only think of cities but cities think of us, where the environment reflexively monitors our behaviour. This paper suggests that we need to unpack the embedded politics of this process. It outlines the three key emerging dynamics in terms of environments that learn and possess anticipation and memory, the efficacy of technological mythologies and the politics of visibility. To examine the assumptions and implications behind this the paper explores three contrasting forms of 'sentient' urban environments. The first addresses market-led visions of customized consumer worlds. The second explores military plans for profiling and targeting. Finally, the third looks at artistic endeavours to re-enchant and contest the urban informational landscape of urban sentience. Each, we suggest, shows a powerful dynamic of the environment tracking, predicting and recalling usage.     

小额信贷:目标客户与操作方式细化探究

由于农村金融的特性所限,本意在于扶贫,但要求归还,以便循环运用的小额信贷模式早在20世纪70年代就十分盛行,并且在为各国弱势群体提供金融服务方面取得了显著效果。但同时,小额信贷的持续性发展也面临着越来越多的问题。文章通过对目前我国小额信贷市场存在问题的分析,提出了目标客户细化、操作方式细化的对策建议,以达到促进小额信贷市场健康发展的目的。     

挪威福利原则与改革趋势：社会权将更具条件性？

人们将“北欧福利模式”视为西方福利国家的一种独特模式。北欧模式的一个主要特征是社会保障、健康以及惠及全民的教育政策,换句话说,即基于普遍性原则的社会政策。近期的改革趋势不得不令人质疑：普遍性原则当前在挪威这个福利国家是否受到了威胁。大体上,福利国家都以不同的规范、价值观和原则为基础。从几种主要福利原则可以看出,在现代北欧与欧洲其他福利国家近期改革中,重心从普遍性原则转移到更强调互惠性与标的设定原则。后两者更侧重合同、义务和激励措施,以使人们为个人幸福承担更多责任。     

通货膨胀定位理论与实证分析

通货膨胀定位框架（ITF）因其广泛认同的高效性,在世界范围内日益流行并被货币政策制定者采纳。基于对中国通货膨胀产生过程的全面分析,文章对通货膨胀治理框架的实用性进行了探索和研究,引入了与经典的Svensson（1997）模型假设不同的Chand—Singh（2006）模型,增加了供给方面的影响因素。研究显示,中国的通货膨胀主要是由需求推动的,奠定了采用需求管理策略（如通货膨胀目标定位）的理论基础。但要实现其远行,中国尚有很长的路要走,需要包括金融部门在内的多方配套改革作为政策准备。     

论人民币资本账户开放下货币政策制度的选择

对于发展中国家来说 ,低通货膨胀率是资本账户开放的成功保证。本文分析了资本账户开放条件下通货膨胀目标制理论 ,认为随着人民币资本账户开放度越来越大 ,我国应该实行通货膨胀目标制 ,同时汇率制度的选择应该倾向于浮动汇率