Using Probabilistic Terrorism Risk Modeling for Regulatory Benefit-Cost Analysis: Application to the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative in the Land Environment

This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI‐L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk‐reducing effectiveness of WHTI‐L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI‐L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness‐to‐pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI‐L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14–26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5–6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit‐cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.     

论当代恐怖主义的政治特点

政治目的性是恐怖主义的本质特征之一。但由于政治本身的复杂性,所以恐怖主义的政治特点也较难把握。恐怖主义的政治目的在性质上表现为某些政治利益的代表,但如果进行具体的分析又会发现其政治目的性质往往是比较模糊,而且当代恐怖主义政治目的的内涵和外延都在扩展,特别是在向社会领域扩展,所以在内容上就表现出较强的复合性。而在暴力手段和政治目的关系上,暴力破坏正在逐步成为政治目的的内容之一。     

The Management of Violence in a Conflict Organization: The Case of the Abu Sayyaf

The Abu Sayyaf is an organization which has left a trail of mayhem and murder in the southern Philippines for more than a decade. It has gained international notoriety through several high profile mass kidnappings. This article looks at how the Abu Sayyaf has managed to survive and at times prosper despite the state's efforts to eradicate it. By using organizational analysis the paper demonstrates how the Abu Sayyaf has developed structures and processes which make it such a deadly force. The organization has succeeded in gaining considerable fit with the environment in which it operates.     

A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism

This article presents a framework for economic consequence analysis of terrorism countermeasures. It specifies major categories of direct and indirect costs, benefits, spillover effects, and transfer payments that must be estimated in a comprehensive assessment. It develops a spreadsheet tool for data collection, storage, and refinement, as well as estimation of the various components of the necessary economic accounts. It also illustrates the usefulness of the framework in the first assessment of the tradeoffs between enhanced security and changes in commercial activity in an urban area, with explicit attention to the role of spillover effects. The article also contributes a practical user interface to the model for emergency managers.     

The ‘affective security curriculum’: breeding JBs through the marriage of the academic and the jingoistic

How does the US recruit its citizen spies used to maintain and proliferate coercive power? I use an interdisciplinary approach and a framework of affect theory to argue that there is an ‘affective security curriculum’ (ASC) that assists in explaining the tendencies towards jingoism used in the recruitment and indoctrination of students – as future security workers – in certain academic disciplines. The ASC is precisely the phenomenon that works to construct this expert class and is produced by order words, the most crucial of which is ‘terrorism’, as well as larger cultural norms linked to neoliberalism that have achieved near total dominance since the 1980s. The ASC works by intensifying the (in)ability to act for those in its domain. The necessity of linguistically proficient security workers to the US’ hegemonic project makes this a question of considerable political importance. The ASC is a different approach to answering questions of how US hegemony is maintained. Whereas positivist research agendas, such as content analysis, and postpositivist approaches, such as critical discourse analysis, certainly have their uses (and to which my notion of ASC is indebted), paradigms such as these fail to focus on the engendering processes at work vis-à-vis the expert class, without which the discursive frames such methodologies analyse would simply dissipate. My overarching purpose in this paper is to develop the concept of the ASC, its quiddity, and to present at least an incipient methodology for analysing its critical duties. As my primary intent is to introduce and conceptualize the theoretical framework of the affective security curriculum, the applied segment of this endeavour will be relatively brief – and is designed as a primer for further research.     

Perceptions of Randomized Security Schedules

Security of infrastructure is a major concern. Traditional security schedules are unable to provide omnipresent coverage; consequently, adversaries can exploit predictable vulnerabilities to their advantage. Randomized security schedules, which randomly deploy security measures, overcome these limitations, but public perceptions of such schedules have not been examined. In this experiment, participants were asked to make a choice between attending a venue that employed a traditional (i.e., search everyone) or a random (i.e., a probability of being searched) security schedule. The absolute probability of detecting contraband was manipulated (i.e., 1/10, 1/4, 1/2) but equivalent between the two schedule types. In general, participants were indifferent to either security schedule, regardless of the probability of detection. The randomized schedule was deemed more convenient, but the traditional schedule was considered fairer and safer. There were no differences between traditional and random schedule in terms of perceived effectiveness or deterrence. Policy implications for the implementation and utilization of randomized schedules are discussed.     

Producing ‘internal suspect bodies’: divisive effects of UK counter‐terrorism measures on Muslim communities in Leeds and Bradford

Research on UK government counter‐terrorism measures has claimed that Muslims are treated as a ‘suspect community’. However, there is limited research exploring the divisive effects that membership of a ‘suspect community’ has on relations within Muslim communities. Drawing from interviews with British Muslims living in Leeds or Bradford, I address this gap by explicating how co‐option of Muslim community members to counter extremism fractures relations within Muslim communities. I reveal how community members internalize fears of state targeting which precipitates internal disciplinary measures. I contribute the category of ‘internal suspect body’ which is materialized through two intersecting conditions within preventative counter‐terrorism: the suspected extremist for Muslims to look out for and suspected informer who might report fellow Muslims. I argue that the suspect community operates through a network of relations by which terrors of counter‐terrorism are reproduced within Muslim communities with divisive effects.     

Techniques of disinformation: Constructing and communicating “soft facts” after terrorism

Informed by social media data collected following four terror attacks in the UK in 2017, this article delineates a series of “techniques of disinformation” used by different actors to try and influence how the events were publicly defined and understood. By studying the causes and consequences of misleading information following terror attacks, the article contributes empirically to the neglected topic of social reactions to terrorism. It also advances scholarship on the workings of disinforming communications, by focusing on a domain other than political elections, which has been the empirical focus for most studies of disinformation to date. Theoretically, the analysis is framed by drawing an analogy with Gresham Sykes and David Matza's (1957) account of the role of “techniques of neutralization” originally published in the American Sociological Review. The connection being that where they studied deviant behaviour, a similar analytic lens can usefully be applied to disinformation cast as “deviant” information.     

Securitized citizens: Islamophobia,racism and the 7/7 London bombings

The London bombings of 7 July 2005 were a major event shaping the relationship between Muslims and non‐Muslims in Britain. In this paper we introduce the idea of ‘securitized citizens’ to analyse the changing relationship between British Muslims and wider British society in response to this and similar events. Through an analysis of qualitative interviews with Muslims and non‐Muslims of a variety of ethnic backgrounds in the areas where the London bombers lived in West Yorkshire we examine the popular perceptions of non‐Muslims and Muslims’ experiences. We show how processes of securitization and racialization have interacted with Islamophobic discourses and identifications, as well as the experiences of Muslims in West Yorkshire after the attacks.     

Who Is to Blame?

We present the results of a content analysis of communications related to the act of terrorism at Domodedovo airport. They show that mass media plays a significant role as a source of factual, undigested information. The theoretical value of the results is that they show a significant number of cases where an actor is accused with no reference to his actions or nonactions. The range of types of complicity in terrorist activity was substantial.