恐怖主义与霸权主义关系探微

恐怖主义与霸权主义是当今世界和平与发展的两大威胁 ,都是祸害世界的毒瘤。恐怖主义与霸权主义既可能彼此敌对、互相制约 ,又可能相互结合、彼此利用 ,二者源远流长 ,在互动中发展。反恐与反霸并举是促进世界和平与发展的根本要求。中国一贯坚持既反恐又反霸的政策 ,是维护世界和平的坚定力量。     

Modeling Interdependent Risks

In an interdependent world the risks faced by any one agent depend not only on its choices but also on those of all others. Expectations about others' choices will influence investments in risk management and the outcome can be suboptimal for everyone. We model this as the Nash equilibrium of a game and give conditions for such a suboptimal equilibrium to be tipped to an optimal one. We also characterize the smallest coalition to tip an equilibrium, the minimum critical coalition, and show that this is also the cheapest critical coalition, so that there is no less expensive way to move the system from the suboptimal to the optimal equilibrium. We illustrate these results by reference to airline security and the control of infectious diseases via vaccination.     

Cumulative Response to Sequences of Terror Attacks Varying in Frequency and Trajectory

There is a paucity of research examining public response to the cumulative effects of multiple related extreme events over time. We investigated the separate and combined effects of frequency and trajectory of terrorist attacks. A scenario simulation of a series of gas station bombings in Southern California was developed to evaluate respondents' affect, risk perception, and intended avoidance behavior using a 3 (frequency; low vs. medium vs. high) by 3 (trajectory; increasing vs. constant vs. decreasing) factorial design. For each of the nine conditions, three videos were created to simulate news broadcasts documenting the attacks over a three‐week period. A total of 275 respondents were included in the analysis. Results from analysis of covariances (ANCOVAs) indicate that trajectory of the sequential attacks (increasing or decreasing in frequency) predicts negative affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior. In contrast, frequency predicts neither negative affect, positive affect, risk perception, nor intended avoidance behavior. Results from structural equation modeling (SEM) further indicate that the effect of negative affect on behavioral intention is mediated by risk perception and the effect of trajectory on risk perception is partially mediated by negative affect. In addition, both ANCOVAs and SEM model results suggest that (1) females experience less positive affect and perceive more risk than males, (2) respondents with higher income perceive more risk, and (3) younger respondents are more likely to modify their behavior to avoid the risk of future attacks.     

Triage and Ethics: Social Workers on the Front Line

ABSTRACT

This article highlights the results of an international qualitative study examining the impact of terrorism and other disasters—both human-made and natural—on social work agencies and their labor force. The study was conducted with focus groups of social workers in health care and social service settings. The major research question concerned the impact of disaster—both natural and human-made—on agencies and social work practitioners. Focus was placed on the ethical dissonance experienced by social workers under pressure to prioritize how services and resources are distributed to those in need.     

Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk

Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.     

Safety and Solidarity After the Boston Marathon Bombing: A Comparison of Three Diverse Boston Neighborhoods

This article investigates the effect of the Boston Marathon Bombing on city residents— how the tragic incident changed, or did not change, how Bostonians live in and feel about their community and neighborhoods. Unlike prior research that began weeks or months after a terrorist attack and used retrospective reports, this study spans the focal event. An address‐based sample of residents from three neighborhoods, distinct in racial and economic makeup was surveyed by mail using a three‐contact protocol. About two‐thirds of respondents answered a survey of neighborhood sentiments, and health and well‐being in the days before the bombing (N = 581) and slightly over a third answered the survey after the bombing (N = 313). Assessments of safety, city and neighborhood satisfaction and solidarity, mental health, and other key measures vary greatly between the three neighborhoods, which are diverse in racial and economic composition, but also vary in proximity to the bomb site. Net of neighborhood differences, the bombing had a strong negative effect on neighborhood cohesion and reduced use of public transit. Strong interactions are also found between timing of survey completion (pre and post bombing) and neighborhood for assessments of neighborhood solidarity.     

民族分裂主义与恐怖主义

本文认为 ,民族分裂主义是民族主义极端性的产物 ,与暴力恐怖主义具有天然的联系。当代民族分裂主义是对民族国家的误读和民族自决权滥用的结果。文章对当代世界奉行暴力恐怖活动的民族分裂主义进行了分类 ,揭示了产生民族分裂主义的历史背景和现实原因 ,作者指出恐怖组织利用某些民族、宗教矛盾和民众情绪进行暴力恐怖活动的目的 ,是为了维护其以极端性和残暴性建立的“权威地位”和左右民众的能力。所以 ,不能将具有种族、民族和宗教背景的恐怖主义组织视为相关群体的代表 ,否则 ,只能扩大恐怖主义势力的群众基础 ,助长恐怖主义势力的嚣张气焰 ,从而掩盖恐怖主义势力反人类的极端性本质     

中亚恐怖主义与上海合作组织的创立

冷战结束后,中亚地区的恐怖主义、分裂主义和极端主义这"三股势力"乘势兴风作浪,对本地区和平、安全与稳定构成严重威胁。上海合作组织组织的创立,顺应国际和地区反恐潮流,创立区域反恐机构和机制,全方位展开多边反恐合作,有效地遏制和打击了中亚地区恐怖主义的蔓延,为中亚乃至世界的和平发展与稳定做出了巨大的贡献。     

自杀式恐怖袭击的历史文化和现实因素

冷战结束后,国际恐怖主义活动猖獗。自杀性恐怖袭击已成为国际恐怖主义活动的主流。自杀式恐怖袭击具有破坏性大、威慑性强、难以防范、成功率高的特点。其产生具有深沉的历史文化原因和复杂的现实政治背景。因为,文明更多的是一种手段与工具而并非目的,文明间的冲突更多的是一种结果而并非原因。即便说存在所谓的"文明的冲突",也只是人为制造的。在当今形势下,所谓"文明冲突"的表象背后,是持续数百年的西方列强的扩张政策和大国利益的无节制追求,今天全世界的经济、政治、文化和社会发展的极端不平衡,加之全球化进程造成的剧烈冲击和经济大国对贫穷国家的无情掠夺,结果导致的"马太效应",以及强权政治和霸权主义才是激起伊斯兰极端主义的暴力恐怖活动的根本原因,而非宗教分歧,更非文明冲突。当前恐怖主义的猖獗是强权压迫下的随机产物,而非文明或宗教冲突的结果。     

论美国与巴基斯坦的反恐合作机制、过程与成效

9.11事件之后,基于各自的战略考量,美国和巴基斯坦结成联盟,巴基斯坦成为美国全球反恐的前线国家和非北约盟友,双方建立了反恐合作机制并进行反恐合作。但巴基斯坦之所以能够成为美国的"非北约盟国",很大程度上则是基于地缘政治的特殊性。美巴反恐合作机制化程度不高,没有像美印、美国和欧盟之间那样形成长效机制,双方存在一些非长效机制。分析了布什政府时期美巴反恐合作过程与成效、奥巴马政府时期的反恐合作"阿富巴战略"以及后拉登时代的美巴反恐合作,并对美巴之间的反恐合作前景做出展望:尽管龃龉丛生,但美国仍然愿意付出较高的代价以保持和巴基斯坦的合作。