论多边主义框架下国际反恐合作的有效性

国际恐怖主义威胁的上升亟需全球范围内的防治与打击。当前,国际恐怖主义的最新发展呈现全球化趋势组织化程度和现代化程度都有较大提高。多边主义为国际反恐合作提供了有效的框架。全球治理和全球共治理论以及联合国与多边区域组织的实践证明了多边主义框架下反恐合作的有效性。     

惩治恐怖犯罪重刑化倾向评析

针对世界各国对恐怖犯罪的刑事对策体现出的重刑主义倾向,从刑法目的及刑事犯罪心理着手对之评析,分析结果表明,对恐怖主义犯罪的预防和控制是第一位的,法律制裁是第二位的,轻刑化是历史发展的进步表现和必然结果。     

塔利班与国际恐怖主义

恐怖主义已成为当今世界的一种普遍的政治现象。本文论述了塔利班的伊斯兰极端主义政策及其对国际恐怖主义的支持 ,并分析了塔利班支持国际恐怖主义的原因及其影响。     

布什政府发动战争的原因探析

21世纪初美国政府为了巩固霸权地位实施了一系列单边主义国际政策。但战争依旧是美国推行霸权主义的主要方式。战争不但有助于布什政府解决国内政治、经济矛盾，而且是宣示美国霸权地位、遏制挑战对手出现的有效手段。还为美国铸造更加强大的战争机器创造了有利时机。     

恐怖主义犯罪及我国刑事立法的完善

恐怖主义的概念需予准确界定。参照国际和国外的惩治恐怖主义犯罪的刑事立法,我国惩治恐怖主义犯罪的立法需从实体法和程序法两方面加以完善。     

试析冷战后民族主义浪潮对国际关系的影响及其发展趋势

20世纪80年代末、90年代初,第三次民族主义浪潮席卷全球,对后冷战时代的国际关系产生了重大而深远的影响.这样的民族主义浪潮使世界地缘政治版图进一步碎片化;导致的恐怖主义,构成当代非传统安全领域的一个重点;民族主义的发展,引起国际社会对世界上一些国家和地区的少数民族生存状况和合法权益重视与保护.展望未来,欧洲,特别是西欧国家的排外主义浪潮、网络民族主义的发展、经济民族主义与文化民族主义这三个发展方向将引人关注.     

试论伊斯兰原教旨主义--对一种意识形态的分析

伊斯兰原教旨主义具有一套基本价值、政治纲领和目标,它认为主权属于神,教法和宗教原则高于国家宪法和法律,建立政教合一的伊斯兰社会是其主要目标。保守的原教旨主义能与专制腐败的政权妥协,参与改造现存制度还是以革命及暴力手段推翻它是温和派与激进派思想的试金石。这一思想拒绝民族主义,希望建立统一的伊斯兰世界,并自认为是西方思想与共产主义之外的第三种选择。虽然使用暴力是激进原教旨主义的特点,但这并不意味着这类组织必定使用恐怖主义手段。     

Protest,Cyberactivism and New Social Movements: The Reemergence of the Peace Movement Post 9/11

This paper examines ways in which the Internet and alternative forms of media have enhanced the global, yet grassroots, political mobilization in the anti-war effort in the post 9/11 environment. An examination of the role of cyberactivism in the peace movement enhances our understanding of social movements and contentious politics by analyzing how contemporary social movements are using advanced forms of technology and mass communication as a mobilizing tool and a conduit to alternative forms of media. These serve as both a means and target of protest action and have played a critical role in the organization and success of internal political mobilizing.     

The Potential Impact of an Anthrax Attack on Real Estate Prices and Foreclosures in Seattle

This article provides a methodology for the economic analysis of the potential consequences of a simulated anthrax terrorism attack on real estate within the Seattle metropolitan area. We estimate spatially disaggregated impacts on median sales price of residential housing within the Seattle metro area following an attack on the central business district (CBD). Using a combination of longitudinal panel regression and GIS analysis, we find that the median sales price in the CBD could decline by as much as $280,000, and by nearly $100,000 in nearby communities. These results indicate that total residential property values could decrease by over $50 billion for Seattle, or a 33% overall decline. We combine these estimates with HUD's 2009 American Housing Survey (AHS) to further predict 70,000 foreclosures in Seattle spatial zones following the terrorism event.     

Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model

The tragic events of 9/11 and the concerns about the potential for a terrorist or hostile state attack with weapons of mass destruction have led to an increased emphasis on risk analysis for homeland security. Uncertain hazards (natural and engineering) have been successfully analyzed using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Unlike uncertain hazards, terrorists and hostile states are intelligent adversaries who can observe our vulnerabilities and dynamically adapt their plans and actions to achieve their objectives. This article compares uncertain hazard risk analysis with intelligent adversary risk analysis, describes the intelligent adversary risk analysis challenges, and presents a probabilistic defender–attacker–defender model to evaluate the baseline risk and the potential risk reduction provided by defender investments. The model includes defender decisions prior to an attack; attacker decisions during the attack; defender actions after an attack; and the uncertainties of attack implementation, detection, and consequences. The risk management model is demonstrated with an illustrative bioterrorism problem with notional data.