Time series modelling of two millennia of northern hemisphere temperatures: long memory or shifting trends?

Summary.  The time series properties of the temperature reconstruction of Moberg and co-workers are analysed. It is found that the record appears to exhibit long memory characteristics that can be modelled by an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process that is both stationary and mean reverting, so that forecasts will eventually return to a constant underlying level. Recent research has suggested that long memory and shifts in level and trend may be confused with each other, and fitting models with slowly changing trends is found to remove the evidence of long memory. Discriminating between the two models is difficult, however, and the strikingly different forecasts that are implied by the two models point towards some intriguing research questions concerning the stochastic process driving this temperature reconstruction.     

Managing turning points and transitions in childhood and parenthood – insights from families with disabled children in Norway

This article explores turning points and transitions emerging in the life course of children with disabilities and their parents. Through in‐depth interviews with parents we found that a change appears in disabled children’s social participation and belonging, at approximately eight years of age for children with learning difficulties and at approximately ten years of age for children with mobility difficulties. Most of the parents experienced a ‘turning point’ that directed them into either marginal or inclusive positions in adulthood. The ‘transition’ emerges at a time described as a stable period of life for families in general and illustrates parents’ experiences of the importance of both ‘doing’ and ‘being’ in parenthood and childhood. Parents’ experiences are strongly interwoven with the child’s life and access or lack of access to services and relational responses.     

Early Family Transitions and Depressive Symptom Changes From Adolescence to Early Adulthood

Some research and theory suggest that early cohabitation, parenthood, and marriage have negative long‐term implications. Nevertheless, in the context of their resources and opportunities, early transitions may represent positive choices for some individuals. We studied the family and personal characteristics of young adults (N = 8,172) who did, versus those who did not, make early family transitions. We assessed changes in their depressive symptoms from adolescence to young adulthood. Individuals who made early family transitions were disadvantaged in many respects, but differed little from those who did not with respect to changes in depressive symptoms. That they stay “even” with those who do not make transitions suggests that some young adults make positive choices from among limited options.     

From ‘weak’ to ‘strong’ multifunctionality: Conceptualising farm-level multifunctional transitional pathways

Building on normative conceptualisations of multifunctionality as a decision-making spectrum bounded by productivist and non-productivist action and thought, this paper analyses farm-level multifunctional agricultural transitions. First, the paper suggests that it may be possible to categorise different farm types along the productivist/non-productivist multifunctionality spectrum, and that transitional potential from weak to strong multifunctionality often differs between different categories of farms and types of farm ownership. Second, the paper conceptualises multifunctional transitional processes at farm level over time, and introduces the notions of multifunctional path dependency and decision-making corridors, the latter of which can be understood as ‘bundles’ of decision-making opportunities bounded by productivist and non-productivist action and thought. The analysis suggests that system memory plays an important role in defining the likelihood of multifunctional actions, and argues that transitional ruptures—sudden breaks in transitional pathways—often characterise farm-level transitions. The paper concludes by highlighting the methodological challenges awaiting future researchers of multifunctional agricultural transitions.     

Stepfamily Assessment

The increase in the number of stepfamilies in our soci- ety is reflected in the high number of stepfamilies requesting help in mental health facilities and social agencies. The rationale for developing a model for assessing remarried fam- ilies comes from an awareness of the complexities of remarried fam- ilies and of b e difficulty therapists have in assessing and organizing all relevant information. We do not imply any particular method to assess the families; we are simply suggesting a format which needs to be in the mind of the therapist when interviewing the family or a family member. Our model emphasizes particular aspects of remarried family life that play a crucial role in the successful adjustment of the remarried family, such as the resolution of the previous relationship, the influ- ence of the outside parent, the co-parental relationship, the mobility of the children between households, and the integration of the new partner.     

Family Transitions,Conduct Problems,and Self-Esteem in Elementary School in Kuwait: A Quasi-Experimental Design

ABSTRACT

This study investigated whether family transitions (disruptions due to parents’ divorce, separation, marriage, or death) were related to problems in the conduct and self-esteem of 331 boys aged 8 to 10 years old in elementary school in Kuwait. The boys were divided into two groups: one whose families had undergone a transition within the past 3 years and one whose families had not undergone such a transition. The two groups were compared on conduct and self-esteem as measured by the Child Behavior Checklist 6–18 and on the Self-Esteem Index. A two-tailed t test was used. The study revealed statistically significant relationships between the two groups. Transitions in the families of young Kuwaiti boys seem to be precursors to problems with conduct but not with self-esteem. Kuwaiti tribal culture may help explain why self-esteem does not suffer after a family transition. The findings suggest a greater need for social services to work with schools to gather information from families to track students and offer services to these families. Future research could study the broader factors surrounding conflict in families undergoing transitions to determine the later impact on children.     

Going It Alone: Post-9/11 Veteran Nonuse of Healthcare and Social Service Programs During Their Early Transition to Civilian Life

Transitioning from military to civilian life is challenging for a substantial number of veterans. Successful transitions require veterans to function well in various well-being domains including employment, education, financial, health, and social relationships. There are many programs and services designed to assist veterans transition to civilian life. However, veterans rarely avail themselves of supportive resources. This study examined veteran nonuse of programs and services within the first three months of their transition to civilian life. Results revealed that male veterans often reported that they did not need programs. Female veterans and veterans from the lowest enlisted ranks were more likely to report that they did not know if they were eligible for support programs. A small percentage of veterans indicated they had not found the right program or did not know where to go to get help. Veterans need clear information about available programs, eligibility requirements, where to locate them, and how to identify which programs will benefit them. Future research should focus on what predicts veteran use of programs and services, how use changes over time, and how programs and services should be advertised/marketed to different veteran populations, particularly those at risk for poor transition outcomes.     

Research Review: Young people leaving care

This paper reviews the international research on young people leaving care. Set in the context of a social exclusion framework, it explores young people’s accelerated and compressed transitions to adulthood, and discusses the development and classification of leaving care services in responding to their needs. It then considers the evidence from outcome studies and argues that adopting a resilience framework suggests that young people leaving care may fall into three groups: young people ‘moving on’, ‘survivors’ and ‘victims’. In concluding, it argues that these three pathways are associated with the quality of care young people receive, their transitions from care and the support they receive after care.     

Ready or Not: Transitioning from Institutional Care to Community Care

Federal legislation has moved toward the support and expansion of home- and community-based alternatives to nursing home placement. Despite the seemingly positive nature of these efforts, the question remains as to whether individuals, families, and communities are prepared for this shift in long-term care. Furthermore, there has been a lack of attention to the impact of nursing home transition programs on family caregivers, community resources, and the availability of appropriate housing alternatives. Although nursing home transition programs offer a promising alternative to institutional care, the authors suggest a closer examination of the policies and practicality of these transitions is needed.     

In the Best Interest of the (Adult) Child: Ideas About Kinship Care of Older Adults

This article uses a qualitative, ethnographic approach to examine the experiences of older adults and their kin, as the older adult engages in relocation. Studies looking at caregiving by kin for older adults highlight burdens for the adult child. This study offers a life course perspective on kinship care, analyzing older adults’ decisions to move. It was found that many older adults are strongly influenced by the desire to not be solely cared for by their kin, as well as to select housing near their existing social network, which might exclude kin. In conclusion, policy implications are discussed.