Additive Transformation Models for Recurrent Events

In this article, we propose a class of additive transformation models for recurrent event data, which includes the additive rates model as a special case. The new models offer great flexibility in formulating the effects of covariates on the mean function of recurrent events. Estimating equation approaches are developed for the model parameters, and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. In addition, a model checking procedure is presented to assess the adequacy of the model. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimators is examined through simulation studies, and an application to a bladder cancer study is presented.     

Social media processes in disasters: Implications of emergent technology use

This article seeks to extend social science scholarship on social media technology use during disruptive events. Though social media's role in times of crisis has been previously studied, much of this work tends to focus on first-responders and relief organizations. However, social media use during disasters tends to be decentralized and this organizational structure can promote different types of messages to top-down information systems. Using 142,786 geo-tagged tweets collected before and after Hurricane Sandy's US landfall as a case study, this article seeks to explore shifts in social media behavior during disruptive events and highlights that though Sandy disrupted routine life within Twitter, users responded to the disaster by employing humor, sharing photos, and checking into locations. We conclude that social media use during disruptive events is complex and understanding these nuanced behaviors is important across the social sciences.     

Risk of Extreme Events in Multiobjective Decision Trees Part 1. Severe Events

Earlier work with decision trees identified nonseparability as an obstacle to minimizing the conditional expected value, a measure of the risk of extreme events, by the well-known method of averaging out and folding back. This first of two companion papers addresses the conditional expected value that is defined as the expected outcome assuming the exceedance of a threshold β, where β is preselected by the decision maker. An approach is proposed to overcome the need to evaluate all policies in order to identify the optimal policy. The approach is based on the insight that the conditional expected value is separable into two constituent elements of risk and can thus be optimized along with other objectives, including the unconditional expected value of the outcome, by using a multiobjective decision tree. An example of sequential decision making for improving highway capacity is given.     

Exploring the Moderating Influence of Delinquent Peers on the Link Between Trauma, Anger, and Violence Among Male Youth: Implications for Social Work Practice

This study’s objective was to explore the influence of delinquent peer exposure, on the relationship between male youths’ histories of trauma, anger, and violent behavior. Using a nationally representative sample of male adolescents aged 12–17 and self report interviews, information was gathered on their levels of exposure to violence, stressful life events (SLE), anger, depression, delinquent peer exposure, and violent behavior. Results of a moderation analyses revealed that youth who reported higher levels of exposure to trauma, anger, and delinquent peers were at an increased risk for anger and for violent offending. Delinquent peer exposure exerted a significant interaction effect on the relationship between anger and violent offending. The implications for prevention and intervention efforts are delineated.     

Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis1

Single-objective-based decision-tree analysis has been extensively and successfully used in numerous decision-making problems since its formal introduction by Howard Raiffa more than two decades ago. This paper extends the traditional methodology to incorporate multiple noncommensurate objective functions and use of the conditional expected value of the risk of extreme and catastrophic events. The proposed methodology considers the cases where (a) a finite number of actions are available at each decision node and (b) discrete or continuous states of nature can be presented at each chance node. The proposed extension of decision-tree analysis is introduced through an example problem that leads the reader step-by-step into the methodological procedure. The example problem builds on flood warning systems. Two noncommensurate objectives—the loss of lives and the loss of property (including monetary costs of the flood warning system)–are incorporated into the decision tree. In addition, two risk measures—the common expected value and the conditional expected value of extreme and catastrophic events—are quantified and are also incorporated into the decision-making process. Theoretical difficulties associated with the stage-wise calculation of conditional expected values are identified and certain simplifying assumptions are made for computational tractibility. In particular, it is revealed that decisions concerning experimentation have a very interesting impact on the noninferior solution set of options—a phenomenon that has no equivalence in the single-objective case.     

研究生招生工作中的小概率事件及其预防

利用小概率原理分析研究生招生工作中的突发事件,提出了导致小概率事件发生的原因有重复效应、数量累积效应和群众检验效应,认为在招生工作中要树立小概率事件意识,科学设计招生工作流程,建立应对小概率事件的制度,以更有效地应对小概率事件。     

我国大型体育赛事场馆设施赛后利用对策研究

采用问卷调查法、数理统计法和文献资料法等研究方法就我国大型体育赛事场馆的赛后利用现状进行分析。认为其现状主要表现为对外开放率逐步提高,社会效益、经济效益并重;整体经营状况不容乐观,"自我造血"能力不强;"本体经营"为主,经营范围、方式进一步扩展;经营观念逐步改善,但营销观念相对滞后等方面。在此基础上,提出建前统筹规划、拓宽融资渠道、转变经营管理模式、开展多种经营、为职业体育赛事的发展提供平台、体教结合、开发场馆无形资产等对策建议。     

论政社关系视域下的治理现代化——基于4类群体性事件的研究

群体性事件的频发以及社会不稳定因素的增加,需要重新思考政府与社会之间的关系,实现群体性事件的治理现代化以增加政府合法性和增强社会活力。通过构建政府与社会关系的理论分析框架,对当前中国四类群体性事件进行阐释。研究发现:当前中国强政府与弱社会的关系格局只是宏观的概况,微观上则呈现为具有自主性、自利性和独立性的强势基层政府与弱势的社会,正是因为基层政府的强势,而引发不同类型的社会群体性事件。因此,政社关系视角下群体性事件的治理现代化应从治理行为、治理主体、治理机制、调解层次以及考核评估等五方面着手。     

群体性事件网络助燃作用研究

关系复杂化、媒体迎合化、网民偏激化是群体性事件网络助燃的主要因素;数量逻辑、见证逻辑、损害逻辑是群体性事件网络助燃的主要逻辑;“倒置”式、“闪爆”式、“混搭”式是群体性事件网络助燃的主要模式。依法治理网络谣言、重塑媒体责任担当、引导网络舆论推进改革是群体性事件网络阻燃的可行机制。     

利用网络热点事件引导大学生养成良好社会心态

随着网络和网络媒体的发展,当代大学生对社会热点事件的关注度和参与度与日俱增。网络热点事件反映的社会现象和折射的社会问题对即将步入社会的大学生来说具有重要的引导作用,对其社会心态的形成具有重要的影响。高校思想政治工作应引导大学生正确运用网络技术,提高信息分析能力;正确看待社会转型期的各种问题;不断推进思想政治教育现代化发展。同时,国家应积极引导网络媒体,净化网络舆论空间,为大学生成长提供健康的网络环境。