中国人口老龄化对报纸消费市场的影响——基于老龄化程度与报纸发行量关系的实证分析

随着信息技术及新媒体的发展,报业市场面临严峻考验,阅报人口逐渐出现老龄化倾向。运用计量经济学方法,在分析老龄化程度与报纸发行量关系的基础上,进一步分析中国老龄化对报纸消费市场的影响。结果表明,老龄化程度与报纸发行量高度正相关,老龄化对报纸的发行量、消费结构、报纸读者消费行为产生影响。老龄化既促进了中国报业"量"的发展,又在一定程度上阻碍了中国报业"质"的提高。最后,提出了相应的对策建议。     

Assessing mental health and service needs among refugees in Malaysia

Refugees in Malaysia often experience economic insecurity and poverty, poor health, poor mental wellbeing and limited legal rights. Using a survey with quantitative measures and open‐ended questions, we assessed socio‐demographic characteristics, mental health (RHS‐15), and service needs, including interest in group support services, among 86 Dari‐ and Arabic‐speaking refugees living in Kuala Lumpur. High levels of emotional distress were found, as nearly all participants scored positive for distress and average scores were 2.5 times above the cut‐off signifying distress. Distress scores did not vary based on most factors examined, although being married was associated with lower levels of distress. All but one participant expressed interest in participating in a support group. Barriers to potential participation included childcare, sickness and transportation. Additional mental health and social supports are needed among refugees residing in Malaysia. Key Practitioner Message: ? Emotional distress is high among Dari‐ and Arabic‐speaking refugees sampled in Malaysia; ? Participants expressed strong interest in accessing supportive mental health services, including group supports.     

Subset selection of superior populations when the number of populations is large

The situation where k populations are partitioned into one inferior group and one superior group is considered. The statistical problem is to select a random size subset of superior populations while trying to avoid including any inferior populations. A selection procedure is assumed to satisfy the condition that the probability of selecting at least one superior population is bounded below by P¹<1. The performance of a procedure is measured by the probability of including an inferior population.The asymptotic performance, as k→∞ of Gupta's traditional maximum type procedure ψ^G is considered in the location-model. For normally distributed populations, ψ^G turns out to be asymptotically optimal, provided the size of the inferior group does not become infinitely larger than the size of the superior group.     

Two-Sex Branching Populations With Progenitor Couples in a Random Environment

In a two-sex branching model, progenitor couples are affected by random factors. The probability and the time to extinction are expressed and simulated.     

Social Competence in Children At Risk Due to Prenatal Cocaine Exposure: Continuity Over Time and Associations with Cognitive and Language Abilities

The continuity of social competence between 36 months and first grade was examined in a sample of children at risk due to prenatal exposure to cocaine (N = 92). Parent report data on social competence were collected at 36 months of age and both parent and teacher report data were collected when children were in first grade. Regression analyses indicated that 36-month social competence significantly predicted first-grade parent ratings of social competence, even after controlling for cognitive ability. Thirty-six month social competence also predicted first-grade teacher ratings of competence, but these relations were mediated by child gender and cognitive ability. Early social competence was also a significant predictor of first-grade language ability, after controlling for 36-month language. These findings emphasize the importance of early social competence for later development.     

Integrated Program Development: A Model for Meeting the Complex Needs of Homeless Persons

Homelessness is caused both by structural and personal factors. Thus, comprehensive services are required to meet the complex needs of homeless persons. This article reviews case management and group work practice with homeless persons and argues that effective social work practice must incorporate both intervention methods. Integrated Program Development (IPD), a program framework for shelter services, is presented. A pilot project at the Salvation Army Family Haven in St. Louis, Missouri illustrates the costs and benefits of empowerment-oriented group work with homeless persons. Three approaches for establishing group work for homeless people are suggested. Each approach requires that group workers, with community organizing skills, be employed by social service administrators.     

Resistance,Space and Political Identities: The Making of Counter-Global Networks

Activists in seven US cities were interviewed about why they thought people in their communities mobilized against alcohol-related problems. The data were analyzed in light of the focus on resource mobilization theory in the social movement literature. In contrast with claims that resources are the primary catalyst for change, informants emphasized the role of grievances, and to a lesser extent, bridging factors that caused residents to be more aware of or frustrated by problems, and thus ready for change. Resources seemed to provide necessary but insufficient conditions for explaining movement participation, suggesting that, to be effective, resources must be channeled to address and be linked to the grievous social conditions of inner city communities.     

Graphical modelling and the Mahalanobis distance

I consider the problem of estimating the Mahalanobis distance between multivariate normal populations when the population covariance matrix satisfies a graphical model. In addition to providing a clear understanding of the dependencies in a multivariate data set, the use of graphical models can reduce the variability of the estimated distances and improve inferences. I derive the asymptotic distribution of the estimated Mahalanobis distance under a general covariance model, which includes graphical models as a special case. Two examples are discussed.     

A NEW TEST FOR EQUALITY OF VARIANCES FOR k NORMAL POPULATIONS

ABSTRACT

A simple test based on Gini's mean difference is proposed to test the hypothesis of equality of population variances. Using 2000 replicated samples and empirical distributions, we show that the test compares favourably with Bartlett's and Levene's test for the normal population. Also, it is more powerful than Bartlett's and Levene's tests for some alternative hypotheses for some non-normal distributions and more robust than the other two tests for large sample sizes under some alternative hypotheses. We also give an approximate distribution to the test statistic to enable one to calculate the nominal levels and P-values.