Designed for Patience: The Significance of Internal Factors in the Ukrainian and Belarusian Transitions

This paper focuses on Belarus in order to find explanation as to why Alexander Lukashenko was able remain the authoritarian leader of Belarus, while in Ukraine the position of the political elite had proved less stable and collapsed in 2004. We seek to determine whether the internal factors (macroeconomic conditions, standard of living, the oppressive nature of the political system) play a significant role in the operation of the domino effect. This article emphasises the determining role of immanent internal factors, thus the political stability in Belarus can be explained by the role of the suppressing political regime, the hindrance of democratic rights and the relatively good living conditions that followed the transformational recession. Whilst in Ukraine, the markedly different circumstances brought forth the success of the Orange Revolution.      

Binary Relations: Finite Characterizations and Computational Complexity

A characterization of a property of binary relations is of finite type if it is stated in terms of ordered T-tuples of alternatives for some positive integer T. The concept was introduced informally by Knoblauch (2005). We give a clear, complete definition below. We prove that a characterization of finite type can be used to determine in polynomial time whether a binary relation over a finite set has the property characterized. We also prove a simple but useful nonexistence theorem and apply it to three examples.      

1951年英国对新中国联合国代表权立场转变的原因

1951年2~6月,英国由赞成中国联合国代表权转向支持搁置对这一问题的讨论。除了美英特殊关系外，英国立场的转变还在于联合国的投票形势对新中国不利。随着中国人民志愿军加入朝鲜战争，对战事扩大的恐惧开始在联合国蔓延。包括英国在内的联合国成员国开始怀疑新中国能否遵循联合国宪章共同维护和平，新中国的加入会否增加苏联在国际舞台上的政治砝码。英国在分析投票形势后认为，此时并非新中国争取联合国代表权的时机，故投票赞成在联合国各机构中推迟对中国代表权问题的讨论。     

Where and why can expatriates vote in regional elections? A comparative analysis of regional electoral practices in Europe and North America

ABSTRACT

The article constitutes the first systematic attempt to survey and account for the enfranchisement of non-resident citizens in regional elections. Shifting the focus away from the state to the regional demos, it is divided into two parts. First, it examines whether the spectacular horizontal diffusion of external voting legislation widely observed in existing scholarship has also spread vertically to regional elections, through a comparative overview of the conditions of eligibility to the regional franchise in 292 American and European regions. The remarkable diversity of regional electoral arrangements both within and across states calls for a more in-depth explanatory analysis of the ‘micro-foundations of diaspora policy’ in specific regions. The second part thus compares two negative cases, Flanders and Scotland, where expanding the franchise to expatriates has been seriously considered and yet ultimately failed. It goes on to examine the frustrated outcome in the light of three dimensions of the political opportunity structure: whether the region has the power to alter the composition of the demos (self-determination powers), the expected electoral gains and losses among political parties within the regional party system (electoral interests), and the (in)compatibility of extending the suffrage to expatriates with the pursuit of autonomy goals (self-determination aims).     

国际组织的投票表决与协商一致决策机制

为加深对国际组织各种决策机制的认识,促进国际社会的合作和国际法律秩序的发展,运用比较研究方法对国际组织投票表决制的类型与利弊以及协商一致决策机制的特征与利弊作了细致的分析。分析认为,投票表决制包括平权表决制和加权表决制,有利于发挥主权原则,促进高效合作,但是容易导致集团对抗和牺牲公平;协商一致决策机制具有兼容并包和多赢互利的优点,但是由于时间较长而容易陷入僵局,只有综合采纳各种决策机制才能取得最佳效果。     

股权分置改革中股东间博弈的实证研究

股权分置问题是中国证券市场最大的制度症结,股权分置改革的过程是非流通股股东与流通股股东之间,就非流通股获得流通权应支付的对价而进行的持续博弈过程.首先论述了股权分置改革中的博弈论基础,就股东间博弈的行为,博弈过程中股东的收益、股东的策略选择、博弈结果对市场平均对价水平的影响进行了论述;其次,研究了股权分置改革中以博弈论为基础的股东协商机制问题,并就股东间博弈的有效性进行了实证研究;最后,对投票表决制下的有关问题做出了分析并提出了建议.     

Exit polling in a cold climate: the BBC–ITV experience in Britain in 2005

Summary.  Conducting an exit poll to forecast the outcome of a national election in terms of both votes and seats is particularly difficult in Britain. No official information is available on how individual polling stations voted in the past, use of single-member plurality means that there is no consistent relationship between votes and seats, electors can choose to vote by post and most of those who vote in person do so late in the day. In addition, around one in every six intended exit poll respondents refuses to participate. Methods that were developed to overcome these problems, and their use in the successful 2005 British Broadcasting Corporation–Independent Television exit poll, are described and evaluated. The methodology included a panel design to allow the estimation of electoral change at local level, coherent multiple-regression modelling of multiparty electoral change to capture systematic patterns of variation, probabilistic prediction of constituency winners to account for uncertainty in projected constituency level shares, collection of information about the voting intentions of postal voters before polling day and access to interviewer guesses on the voting behaviour of refusals. The coverage and accuracy of the exit poll data are critically examined, the effect of key aspects of the statistical modelling of the data is assessed and some general lessons are drawn for the design and analysis of electoral exit polls.     

Si se puede! Working for Obama at K and A

In recent issues, Sociological Forum has had much to say on issues such as politics and voting (see, e.g., Burstein and Hirsh, 2007 ; Fullerton and Borsch, 2008 ; Peoples, 2008 ; Prasad et al., 2009 ; Ruane and Cerulo, 2008 ). The journal has featured several ethnographic accounts as well (see, e.g., Anderson, 2009 ; Auyero and Swistun, 2009 ; Gamson, 2007 ). In this essay, I combine theme and method, yielding a personal account of my experiences as a volunteer for the Obama campaign.     

General Feelings Toward Unions and Employers as Predictors of Union Voting Intent

The union voting intention literature shows that many nonunion employees who indicate that they think unions are instrumental in increasing wages, benefits, and working conditions would vote against forming a union. Although American workers have often been characterized as pragmatic with regard to their support for unions, the “disconnect” between union beliefs and union voting intentions just described suggests that more subtle forces are at work. In this paper, it is shown empirically that union instrumentality is a limited predictor of union voting intentions for a recent national cross-section of workers. Rather, more general feelings toward unions and employers are primary. These accounted for a large portion of the variance in union voting intentions, with general feelings towards unions by far the most critical predictor. A concluding section discusses whether the results may reflect changes in union power and changes in employee views of unions. Areas for future research are discussed.     

Who counts and who is counted? Conversations around voting,access, and divisions in the disability community

Online voting platforms have been introduced in some locations as the solution to the many barriers to political participation that disabled people continue to face. Reading the experiences of disabled student voters on university campuses alongside broader trends in electoral reform taking place in jurisdictions across Canada allows us to attend to the dangerous ways in which conversations around access have been limited through virtual solutions that encourage the physical absence of disabled voters. This article situates these absences alongside other categories of exclusion – including groups who are formally disenfranchised – and recalls many unstated values that are active in shaping citizenship cultures. Probing online voting through a critical disability angle, we present a critique of techno-fixes that builds upon broader notions of accessibility and inclusion.