Composite Estimation for Single‐Index Models with Responses Subject to Detection Limits

We propose a semiparametric estimator for single‐index models with censored responses due to detection limits. In the presence of left censoring, the mean function cannot be identified without any parametric distributional assumptions, but the quantile function is still identifiable at upper quantile levels. To avoid parametric distributional assumption, we propose to fit censored quantile regression and combine information across quantile levels to estimate the unknown smooth link function and the index parameter. Under some regularity conditions, we show that the estimated link function achieves the non‐parametric optimal convergence rate, and the estimated index parameter is asymptotically normal. The simulation study shows that the proposed estimator is competitive with the omniscient least squares estimator based on the latent uncensored responses for data with normal errors but much more efficient for heavy‐tailed data under light and moderate censoring. The practical value of the proposed method is demonstrated through the analysis of a human immunodeficiency virus antibody data set.     

Bayesian estimation and prediction for Weibull model with progressive censoring

This article presents the statistical inferences on Weibull parameters with the data that are progressively type II censored. The maximum likelihood estimators are derived. For incorporation of previous information with current data, the Bayesian approach is considered. We obtain the Bayes estimators under squared error loss with a bivariate prior distribution, and derive the credible intervals for the parameters of Weibull distribution. Also, the Bayes prediction intervals for future observations are obtained in the one- and two-sample cases. The method is shown to be practical, although a computer program is required for its implementation. A numerical example is presented for illustration and some simulation study are performed.     

A Fragmentary Archive: Migratory Feelings in Early Anglo-Saxon Women’s Letters

The letters by Anglo-Saxon women in the Boniface correspondence are connected by cultural practices and emotions centered on the conversion mission that functioned to maintain connections between the Anglo-Saxon diaspora. A striking recurring focus of these letters is on loss and isolation, which connects them to the Old English elegies. Many of the letters describe the writers’ traumatic experiences that result from the death or absence of kin. These are women who endured the trauma of being left behind when others migrated overseas or who, in traveling away from their homeland, found themselves isolated in an alien environment, displaced in time as well as space. This article offers an analysis of the letters, focusing on the queer temporalities they explore, the queer emotions they evoke, and the queer kinships that they forge. It argues that the women’s letters represent fragments of an early queer archive of migratory feelings.     

Bayesian Treatment of Model Uncertainty for Partially Applicable Models

This article discusses how analyst's or expert's beliefs on the credibility and quality of models can be assessed and incorporated into the uncertainty assessment of an unknown of interest. The proposed methodology is a specialization of the Bayesian framework for the assessment of model uncertainty presented in an earlier paper. This formalism treats models as sources of information in assessing the uncertainty of an unknown, and it allows the use of predictions from multiple models as well as experimental validation data about the models’ performances. In this article, the methodology is extended to incorporate additional types of information about the model, namely, subjective information in terms of credibility of the model and its applicability when it is used outside its intended domain of application. An example in the context of fire risk modeling is also provided.     

姚元之诗论

姚元之是清嘉、道时期一位重要的诗人，尝获“锜中风雅眉目”之美誉，今尚有《使沈草》、《廌青集》等诗集传世。姚元之善于以自身经历为基础进行诗歌创作，他的作品也因此具有较高的现实认知价值，这主要从民俗学价值和现实针砭意义两个方面体现出来。姚元之的诗歌创作能将诗情与画意熔铸于一炉，体现出简淡写意的艺术特征。     

An International Comparative Study on Women's Pension Rights and Their Economic Risks

This article examined the theoretical meanings of pension rights and analyzed their effects on women's economic risks in developed countries. First, based on the status of a citizen, worker, parent, and spouse, this study investigated how pension benefits are guaranteed as a citizen regardless of work history, the degree to which women's disadvantageous situations in the labor market and unpaid work are compensated by public pension as workers and parents, and how marital status is treated in the different pension systems. Second, analysis of the effect of pension rights showed that individual rights is a significant factor to prevent economic risks of elderly women. Derived rights did not seem to secure the economic welfare of elderly women, at least in a comparative context. This finding suggested that developing individual rights, rather than derived rights, is the way to guarantee long‐term elderly women's economic welfare.     

人的思想道德与经济发展的关联

人的思想道德是人口素质的重要内容，人的思想道德在经济增长和经济发展中具有重要作用。但目前学术界还缺乏对人的思想道德素质与经济增长、经济发展和脱贫致富相关性的理论分析与实证检验。新时期反贫困实践应重视思想反贫困和思想扶贫。     

Cumulative correspondence analysis using orthogonal polynomials

Taguchi's statistic has long been known to be a more appropriate measure of association of the dependence for ordinal variables compared to the Pearson chi-squared statistic. Therefore, there is some advantage in using Taguchi's statistic in the correspondence analysis context when a two-way contingency table consists at least of an ordinal categorical variable. The aim of this paper, considering the contingency table with two ordinal categorical variables, is to show a decomposition of Taguchi's index into linear, quadratic and higher-order components. This decomposition has been developed using Emerson's orthogonal polynomials. Moreover, two case studies to explain the methodology have been analyzed.     

对中国经济运行状况的分析

从经济的投资、消费和出口数据看,中国经济增速确实在下行。为了保持中国经济8%的增速,我们已付出了很高的代价;经过35年的高速增长,在各行各业产能基本过剩的情况下,中国经济增速正在下移。观察1950年代后日本、中国台湾和香港地区经济发展的过程,其经济高速增长后,也是一个台阶又一个台阶地下来。中国不能再靠高投资来推动经济增长。