Gibbs sampling for marginal posterior expectations

In earlier work (Gelfand and Smith, 1990 and Gelfand et al, 1990) a sampling based approach using the Gibbs sampler was offered as a means for developing marginal posterior densities for a wide range of Bayesian problems several of which were previously inaccessible. Our purpose here is two-fold. First we flesh out the implementation of this approach for calculation of arbitrary expectations of interest. Secondly we offer comparison with perhaps the most prominent approach for calculating posterior expectations, analytic approximation involving application of the LaPlace method. Several illustrative examples are discussed as well. Clear advantages for the sampling based approach emerge.     

Community-based approaches to social exclusion among rural-to-urban migrants in China

Rural-to-urban migrants in China face numerous forms of social exclusion. This article argues that community-based approaches offer innovative ways with which to tackle the problems of social exclusion for rural-to-urban migrants, yet these approaches have been neglected. This article first provides an overview of the concept of social exclusion, as developed by Western European scholarship and policy discourse. Next, it examines the ways in which these concepts are relevant to the context of rural-to-urban migrants within China. Finally, this article conceptualizes the social exclusion paradigm from a community practice perspective and offers the implications of this paradigm for community-level interventions.     

Inferences on regression coefficients in a regression model under heteroscedasticity and robustness with respect to departure from normality

In this paper we consider a simple linear regression model under heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. A statistical test for testing the regression coefficient is then derived by assuming normality for the random disturbances and by applying Welch's method. Some Monte Carlo studies are generated for assessing robustness of this test. By combining Tiku's robust procedure with the new test, a robust but more powerful test is developed.     

转型期农民精神家园建设的价值、路径与方法

精神家园是人们心理上认可、信赖、追求的归宿和寄托之所,不仅是提升农民幸福感的必然要求,而且是社会发展的现实需要。转型期农民精神家园建设必须通过培育其实体家园感、安居乐业感、归属感、自我成就感、文化认同感、政治认同感的途径,以培育其价值支柱、自主意识、文化活力、舆论氛围、和谐网络等方法来实现。     

A robust ranking method extending ELECTRE III to hierarchy of interacting criteria,imprecise weights and stochastic analysis

A great majority of methods designed for Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA) assume that all assessment criteria are considered at the same level, however, decision problems encountered in practice often impose a hierarchical structure of criteria. The hierarchy helps to decompose complex decision problems into smaller and manageable subtasks, and thus, it is very attractive for computational efficiency and explanatory purposes. To handle the hierarchy of criteria in MCDA, a methodology called Multiple Criteria Hierarchy Process (MCHP), has been recently proposed. MCHP permits to consider preference relations with respect to a subset of criteria at any level of the hierarchy. Here, we propose to apply MCHP to the ELECTRE III ranking method adapted to handle three types of interaction effects between criteria: mutual-weakening, mutual-strengthening and antagonistic effect. We also involve in MCHP an imprecise elicitation of criteria weights, generalizing a technique called the SRF method. In order to explore the plurality of rankings obtained by the ELECTRE III method for possible sets of criteria weights, we apply the Stochastic Multiobjective Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) that permits to draw robust conclusions in terms of rankings and preference relations at each level of the hierarchy of criteria. The novelty of the whole methodology consists of a joint consideration of hierarchical assessments of alternatives performances on interacting criteria, imprecise criteria weights, and robust analysis of ranking recommendations resulting from ELECTRE III. An example regarding the multiple criteria ranking of some European universities will show how to apply the proposed methodology on a decision problem.     

现代文学叙事性艺术的生态考察——以现代小说、话剧名著的改编为视角

1917年到1949年间，中国现代文学以小说为代表的叙事艺术，在各自的发展过程中相对独立又相互影响。文章通过对30年间现代文学名著改编史的论述，揭示了它们不同阶段的各自发展特点，以及它们之间的相互关系。     

对职业院校辅导员工作的探讨

辅导员是班级学习活动的组织者、领导者和教育者，同时，也是学生身心健康发展的引导者。本文从班级良好氛围的营造、学生综合素质与能力的培养、学生思想工作的开展等方面，阐述了如何做好职业院校辅导员工作。     

论素质教育与思想政治工作的创新

思想政治工作的创新是实施素质教育的内在要求;增强思想政治工作的时代感、主动性、针对性、实效性是思想政治工作的落脚点;进行体制与机制、内容、手段和方法的创新是思想政治工作创新的重要方面;思想政治工作的创新要处理好创新与继承优良传统的关系.     

Not Just about Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: A Call for Military-Centric Social Work

Most warriors do not get PTSD but can still be affected by war. The “military gestalt,” defined as the complex myriad of “all things military” including the functions, processes, and human elements related to combat, is seriously impacted by the warrior-in-combat construct that is reflective of the person-in-environment construct. Thus, it suggests that problems within the gestalt can be understood and addressed from a military-centric social work perspective and approach. The situation is so insidious that it requires a call to action from all disciplines but, most important, for the social work profession to take the lead.     

云冈石窟佛经故事的艺术传播方式

云冈石窟雕刻是将佛经故事以石刻的形式表现出来的经典作品,在石窟中占有重要位置。本文拟从艺术传播学的角度,对其传播技巧和传播方法进行新视域的研究。