Kernel Estimation of Rate Function for Recurrent Event Data

Abstract.  Recurrent event data are largely characterized by the rate function but smoothing techniques for estimating the rate function have never been rigorously developed or studied in statistical literature. This paper considers the moment and least squares methods for estimating the rate function from recurrent event data. With an independent censoring assumption on the recurrent event process, we study statistical properties of the proposed estimators and propose bootstrap procedures for the bandwidth selection and for the approximation of confidence intervals in the estimation of the occurrence rate function. It is identified that the moment method without resmoothing via a smaller bandwidth will produce a curve with nicks occurring at the censoring times, whereas there is no such problem with the least squares method. Furthermore, the asymptotic variance of the least squares estimator is shown to be smaller under regularity conditions. However, in the implementation of the bootstrap procedures, the moment method is computationally more efficient than the least squares method because the former approach uses condensed bootstrap data. The performance of the proposed procedures is studied through Monte Carlo simulations and an epidemiological example on intravenous drug users.     

Moderate Deviations for Bayes Posteriors

Let ( X_k ) k be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables taking values in a set , and consider the problem of estimating the law of X₁ in a Bayesian framework. We prove, under mild conditions on the prior, that the sequence of posterior distributions satisfies a moderate deviation principle.     

ERP在钢铁贸易企业的应用研究

以上海宝钢技术经济发展公司为对象,根据公司对提升内部管理及业务流程规范化的要求,研究了公司建立ERP系统的定位及目标,提出应建立以钢材贸易和钢铁产品深加工为主业的ERP体系,实现流通过程中的价值增值.在分析存在的主要问题的基础上,提出了ERP的模式、流程设计及采购业务、库存业务的解决方案.     

南宋理学极盛的过程与原因试析

宋代理学到南宋孝宗、宁宗时期达到极盛 ,但无论从理学道统承传方面还是从社会政治条件方面看 ,孝宗之前的高宗朝实为理学发展的关键时期。理学由北宋时的民间之学发展到南宋时占主导地位的学派 ,活跃于高宗朝的程门弟子对二程学说的极力推展是一重要因素。同时 ,面对激烈的民族矛盾 ,高宗集团选择了主和派的妥协主张 ,并有意识地寻找与这一政策相适应的学术思想作为其理论根据 ,程系理学正是在这一现实政治需要中得到高宗集团的接纳、支持而逐渐繁荣兴盛起来。到孝宗朝 ,朱熹使理学形成庞大的思想体系 ,标志着中国古典哲学进入了一个新阶段。     

Statistical and Combinatorial Aspects of Comparative Genomics*

Abstract. This document presents a survey of the statistical and combinatorial aspects of four areas of comparative genomics: gene order based measures of evolutionary distances between species, construction of phylogenetic trees, detection of horizontal transfer of genes, and detection of ancient whole genome duplications.     

翻译:意识形态的建构、解构、重建与解读

翻译不仅是语言之间信息转换的文化活动,而且是一系列复杂的思维活动。意识形态以不同的语言形式隐藏在语篇之中,以各种隐蔽方式潜移默化地影响着作者写作、译者翻译以及读者解读文本。本文拟以批评语言学为主要方法论,强调翻译中语言分析和社会分析相结合的重要性,同时主张翻译研究应以语篇为单位,特别注意考察作者、译者、读者在翻译过程中的三元关系及其在意识形态的建构、解构、重建和解读过程中的作用,以便弄清翻译的本质并有效地解释那些"不忠"的现象。     

基于核心能力的企业过程再造

阐述了企业过程再造(BPR)和核心能力的内涵及本质,分析了核心过程与核心能力二者之间的关系,指出企业过程再造不能脱离核心能力这一本质,BPR本质上应该是基于核心能力的再造。给出了基于核心能力实施BPR的6个具体步骤:即识别核心能力,识别核心过程,定义经营业绩,找出问题,确定方案和实施方案。     

论美术新课程教学过程的特征

新的《全日制义务教育美术课程标准(实验稿)》,要求美术教育以发展学生的艺术素养、人文素养及促进学生的发展为主要目标。新标准要求下的美术教育与传统美术教育相比,教学过程具有学生中心性、综合性、过程性、实践性、开放性、创造性、师生互动性、美育性、兴趣性和个性性等新的特征。     

Empirical Non-Parametric Control Charts: Estimation Effects and Corrections

Owing to the extreme quantiles involved, standard control charts are very sensitive to the effects of parameter estimation and non-normality. More general parametric charts have been devised to deal with the latter complication and corrections have been derived to compensate for the estimation step, both under normal and parametric models. The resulting procedures offer a satisfactory solution over a broad range of underlying distributions. However, situations do occur where even such a large model is inadequate and nothing remains but to consider non- parametric charts. In principle, these form ideal solutions, but the problem is that huge sample sizes are required for the estimation step. Otherwise the resulting stochastic error is so large that the chart is very unstable, a disadvantage that seems to outweigh the advantage of avoiding the model error from the parametric case. Here we analyse under what conditions non-parametric charts actually become feasible alternatives for their parametric counterparts. In particular, corrected versions are suggested for which a possible change point is reached at sample sizes that are markedly less huge (but still larger than the customary range). These corrections serve to control the behaviour during in-control (markedly wrong outcomes of the estimates only occur sufficiently rarely). The price for this protection will clearly be some loss of detection power during out-of-control. A change point comes in view as soon as this loss can be made sufficiently small.     

成人依恋研究

依恋是人类适应生存的重要方式,是人类长期生物进化的结果,它会影响到成年后亲密关系的建立、人际社会功能的表达以及人格功能和人格特质的形成。目前成人依恋的研究大概可以分为两个方面:成人依恋的个体差异和成人依恋的检测维度。