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1.
Stephen J. Ruberg Frank E. Harrell Jr. Margaret Gamalo-Siebers Lisa LaVange J. Jack Lee Karen Price 《The American statistician》2019,73(1):319-327
ABSTRACTThe cost and time of pharmaceutical drug development continue to grow at rates that many say are unsustainable. These trends have enormous impact on what treatments get to patients, when they get them and how they are used. The statistical framework for supporting decisions in regulated clinical development of new medicines has followed a traditional path of frequentist methodology. Trials using hypothesis tests of “no treatment effect” are done routinely, and the p-value < 0.05 is often the determinant of what constitutes a “successful” trial. Many drugs fail in clinical development, adding to the cost of new medicines, and some evidence points blame at the deficiencies of the frequentist paradigm. An unknown number effective medicines may have been abandoned because trials were declared “unsuccessful” due to a p-value exceeding 0.05. Recently, the Bayesian paradigm has shown utility in the clinical drug development process for its probability-based inference. We argue for a Bayesian approach that employs data from other trials as a “prior” for Phase 3 trials so that synthesized evidence across trials can be utilized to compute probability statements that are valuable for understanding the magnitude of treatment effect. Such a Bayesian paradigm provides a promising framework for improving statistical inference and regulatory decision making. 相似文献
2.
论土族民间信仰象征 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
文忠祥 《青海民族学院学报(社会科学版)》2008,34(2):25-31
文章在田野调查的基础上,对土族民间信仰中的象征体系从象征思维、结构、具象等方面进行了归纳分析,认为土族民间信仰象征内容十分丰富,且随着社会的演进,其程序亦不断发生异化。 相似文献
3.
To explore the projection efficiency of a design, Tsai, et al [2000. Projective three-level main effects designs robust to model uncertainty. Biometrika 87, 467–475] introduced the Q criterion to compare three-level main-effects designs for quantitative factors that allow the consideration of interactions in addition to main effects. In this paper, we extend their method and focus on the case in which experimenters have some prior knowledge, in advance of running the experiment, about the probabilities of effects being non-negligible. A criterion which incorporates experimenters’ prior beliefs about the importance of each effect is introduced to compare orthogonal, or nearly orthogonal, main effects designs with robustness to interactions as a secondary consideration. We show that this criterion, exploiting prior information about model uncertainty, can lead to more appropriate designs reflecting experimenters’ prior beliefs. 相似文献
4.
非英语专业新生语言学习观念调查 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
文章基于元认知理论及自主学习理论,采用Horwitz的语言学习观念调查表,对合肥工业大学非英语专业106名新生进行了问卷调查,并对结果进行分析.旨在了解新生的语言学习观念,帮助其树立英语学习的正确观念,培养学生的自主学习能力. 相似文献
5.
This article characterizes a family of preference relations over uncertain prospects that (a) are dynamically consistent in the Machina sense and, moreover, for which the updated preferences are also members of this family and (b) can simultaneously accommodate Ellsberg- and Allais-type paradoxes.Replacing the "mixture independence" axiom by "mixture symmetry" proposed by Chew, Epstein, and Segal (1991) for decision making under objective risk, and requiring that for some partition of the state space the agent perceives ambiguity and so prefers a randomization over outcomes across that partition (proper uncertainty aversion), preferences can be represented by a (proper) quadratic functional. This representation may be further refined to allow a separation between the quantification of beliefs and risk preferences that is closed under dynamically consistent updating. 相似文献
6.
文章从微文化视域对大学生理想信念教育话语权进行分析,通过微文化对大学生理想信念教育话语权建构的价值和挑战两个维度进行解析,提出微文化已经成为大学生学习生活的重要组成部分,为大学生理想信念教育话语权建构提供了良好契机,但同时也冲击着大学生理想信念教育话语权威.探索充分认识并利用微文化的优势,既有传承,又有创新,提升理想信念教育话语内容导向性,畅通理想信念教育话语权对话机制,优化理想信念教育话语渠道,建构大学生理想信念教育话语权,是适应新形势、新变化的必然要求,对于高校思想政治工作以及弘扬和培育社会主义核心价值观具有积极意义. 相似文献
7.
Anthropogenic climate change information tends to be interpreted against the backdrop of initial environmental beliefs, which can lead to some people being resistant toward the information. In this article (N = 88), we examined whether self‐affirmation via reflection on personally important values could attenuate the impact of initial beliefs on the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change evidence. Our findings showed that initial beliefs about the human impact on ecological stability influenced the acceptance of information only among nonaffirmed participants. Self‐affirmed participants who were initially resistant toward the information showed stronger beliefs in the existence of climate change risks and greater acknowledgment that individual efficacy has a role to play in reducing climate change risks than did their nonaffirmed counterparts. 相似文献
8.
路晨菲 《河北理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2012,12(3)
采用自编问卷对300名大学生就爱情非理性信念进行了调查与分析。结果表明,当前大学生的爱情非理性信念主要表现在六个方面,即:"消极评价"、"不合理期望"、"追求完美"、"错误动机"、"歪曲认知"、"绝对化自我要求"。并且,不同性别、年级、学科、生源地的大学生表现出不同的爱情非理性信念特点。 相似文献
9.
李士田 《淮海工学院学报(社会科学版)》2015,(3)
新形势下,加强反腐倡廉建设要从进一步加强理想信念教育入手,构筑反腐倡廉的思想道德防线;要从学习入手,筑牢反腐倡廉的思想基础;要从实践入手,筑牢反腐倡廉的现实基础。 相似文献
10.