Implied Preference for Seismic Design Level and Earthquake Insurance

Seismic risk can be reduced by implementing newly developed seismic provisions in design codes. Furthermore, financial protection or enhanced utility and happiness for stakeholders could be gained through the purchase of earthquake insurance. If this is not so, there would be no market for such insurance. However, perceived benefit associated with insurance is not universally shared by stakeholders partly due to their diverse risk attitudes. This study investigates the implied seismic design preference with insurance options for decisionmakers of bounded rationality whose preferences could be adequately represented by the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The investigation is focused on assessing the sensitivity of the implied seismic design preference with insurance options to model parameters of the CPT and to fair and unfair insurance arrangements. Numerical results suggest that human cognitive limitation and risk perception can affect the implied seismic design preference by the CPT significantly. The mandatory purchase of fair insurance will lead the implied seismic design preference to the optimum design level that is dictated by the minimum expected lifecycle cost rule. Unfair insurance decreases the expected gain as well as its associated variability, which is preferred by risk-averse decisionmakers. The obtained results of the implied preference for the combination of the seismic design level and insurance option suggest that property owners, financial institutions, and municipalities can take advantage of affordable insurance to establish successful seismic risk management strategies.     

论英语语言课程设计中的需求分析

界定需求要从目标和目的两个方面进行,这两个方面是我们发展测试、材料、教学活动、评价策略的基础。因此需求分析是语言课程建设不可分割的一部分。本文重点介绍了英语语言课程设计中需求分析的方法及步骤。目的在于强调需求分析的重要性,以及需求分析对于教师改进教学方法、提高教学效果、提高学生学习的主动性和积极性的重要意义。     

Sampling Strategies for Toxic Air Contaminants

Annual concentrations of toxic air contaminants are of primary concern from the perspective of chronic human exposure assessment and risk analysis. Despite recent advances in air quality monitoring technology, resource and technical constraints often impose limitations on the availability of a sufficient number of ambient concentration measurements for performing environmental risk analysis. Therefore, sample size limitations, representativeness of data, and uncertainties in the estimated annual mean concentration must be examined before performing quantitative risk analysis. In this paper, we discuss several factors that need to be considered in designing field-sampling programs for toxic air contaminants and in verifying compliance with environmental regulations. Specifically, we examine the behavior of SO2, TSP, and CO data as surrogates for toxic air contaminants and as examples of point source, area source, and line source-dominated pollutants, respectively, from the standpoint of sampling design. We demonstrate the use of bootstrap resampling method and normal theory in estimating the annual mean concentration and its 95% confidence bounds from limited sampling data, and illustrate the application of operating characteristic (OC) curves to determine optimum sample size and other sampling strategies. We also outline a statistical procedure, based on a one-sided t-test, that utilizes the sampled concentration data for evaluating whether a sampling site is compliance with relevant ambient guideline concentrations for toxic air contaminants.     

新农村建设类设计的重要源泉——解读传统徽派建筑聚落空间的创作手法

通过深层次地解读传统徽派建筑聚落空间的几点重要创作手法,强调了保存和发展传统建筑文化的重要性,并认为具有乡土价值的空间创作手法可以成为新农村建设类设计的重要源泉。     

The ecosystem blueprint: How firms shape the design of an ecosystem according to the surrounding conditions

Ecosystems are formed by organisations that jointly create a value proposition that a single firm could not create in isolation. To deliver this value proposition, the partners need a focal firm, the orchestrator, to be align them towards the joint value proposition. Thus, how orchestrators design the alignment structure of an ecosystem is at the very heart of the ecosystem concept – yet it has not been sufficiently addressed by extant research. This is all the more true for the question of how the design of an ecosystem is shaped depending on surrounding conditions. This paper applies a qualitative study with ten cases and, based on the attention-based view of the firm, contributes to research on ecosystems in several ways. First, it explains which ecosystem designs are beneficial under which conditions. Second, it elucidates the structure and activities within ecosystems and shows that start-ups can be just as good ecosystem orchestrators as incumbents. Third, it explains the circumstances under which single vs. multi orchestrator ecosystems occur. Fourth, it presents the conditions when incumbents or start-ups make better orchestrators. Finally, it is among the first studies to apply the attention-based view to business ecosystems, and shows that doing so yields intriguing insights into this emerging field of research.     

Circuit optimization via sequential computer experiments: design of an output buffer

In electrical engineering, circuit designs are now often optimized via circuit simulation computer models. Typically, many response variables characterize the circuit's performance. Each response is a function of many input variables, including factors that can be set in the engineering design and noise factors representing manufacturing conditions. We describe a modelling approach which is appropriate for the simulator's deterministic input–output relationships. Non-linearities and interactions are identified without explicit assumptions about the functional form. These models lead to predictors to guide the reduction of the ranges of the designable factors in a sequence of experiments. Ultimately, the predictors are used to optimize the engineering design. We also show how a visualization of the fitted relationships facilitates an understanding of the engineering trade-offs between responses. The example used to demonstrate these methods, the design of a buffer circuit, has multiple targets for the responses, representing different trade-offs between the key performance measures.     

关于高校建筑设计课程教学的反思

全球化时代的来临和建筑行业的发展给我国建筑教育提出了新的要求,就新形势下高校建筑设计课程教学进行了一些思考,强调培养学生设计思维能力的重要性并针对如何提高设计思维能力进行了论述。     

美国早期融合教育师资在线培养经验及启示

“办好公平而有质量的教育”是我国当前教育发展的主题,融合教育作为沟通普通教育和特殊教育的桥梁,是新时期 基础教育扩优提质计划的重要组成部分,亦是确保学前教育普及普惠的应有之义,其发展的关键在于培养高质量的融合 教育师资。通过对美国西南地区某研究型公立大学开发的一套早期融合教育师资在线培养课程进行解读,进而探究我国 学前融合教育教师培养路径。首先,从教学形式、教育对象和课程目标三方面分析该在线培养课程与同类型的线下课程 之间的差异：其次,总结该早期融合教育师资在线培养课程的特点;最后,结合该早期融合教育师资在线培养课程建设案 例,从教育对象、教育过程、课程评价和社会影响四方面,就创新我国学前融合教育人才培养方式的问题形成相应启示与 建议。     

健全粮食安全利益保障体系的机制设计与政策建议

发挥经济激励对国家粮食安全的保障作用至关重要。经过多年来的实践探索,我国基本建立起多维立体的涉粮激励政策体系,形成了稳定粮农收入、优化营商环境、调动产区积极性和保障消费者可得性的政策框架,但仍存在种粮农民利润空间压缩、粮油加工业后劲潜力不足、粮食主产区高产穷县等问题。针对粮食安全利益保障水平较低背后成因,探索构建以实现“产得出、运得到、买得起”为目标、协调粮食产业链利益相关主体关系、充分释放经济效益在保障粮食安全中作用的机制,并提出健全粮食安全利益保障体系的对策建议:一是优化补贴政策,强化政策保本功能;二是加快发展农业社会化服务,实现经营增效;三是协调产业链主体关系;四是逐步健全主产区利益补偿机制;五是健全应急储备及市场调节机制。     

考虑组织成本的两阶段竞赛机制研究

在企业招聘实践中,招聘成本是企业管理者在制定招聘策略时所考虑的重要因素之一。为保证招聘效果并控制成本,企业管理者将选择不同成本的人才测评方法,分阶段地筛选应聘者,选择测评方法和确定各阶段应聘者人数成为企业管理者主要的决策问题。在此管理背景下,进行两阶段竞赛机制的研究,并将节约组织成本作为竞赛设计者目标的一部分。分别修改竞赛者总努力最大化和最高努力最大化这两个传统目标,得到两个修正后的优化目标。当竞赛者能力分布函数为幂函数时,通过模型分析和数值模拟。研究结果表明,两个优化目标下的最优竞赛机制具有共同性质,即针对确定的奖励选择竞赛筛选方法时,单位组织成本不能过大;在确定筛选方法后,如果奖励与单位组织成本的比值过小,或低能力者占竞赛者的大部分,那么应仅允许两名竞赛者进入复试。另外,对于以竞赛者最高努力最大化为目标的竞赛,如果高能力者相对较多时,第二阶段的最优竞赛人数也为2。