高校财务指标体系的建立及其综合评价

讨论了财务指标作为高校综合评价的可能性及高校财务管理的内涵,在此基础上建立了科学、系统、可操作的财务评价指标体系,确定了各项财务指标的权重.     

制造企业生存和发展的推动力--技术创新

技术创新是制造企业发展的原动力和核心竞争力.培养员工的创新精神,营造有利于创新的企业文化环境,制定符合制造企业发展要求的创新策略,建立鼓励创新的管理机制和创新能力评价体系是提高制造企业创新能力的关键.     

一个中国知识分子的仕士适——《顾准文集》读后

通过顾准的人生境遇分析中国知识分子为官、为儒的命运 ,提出 :官有官道 ,文有文道 ;当代中国知识分子有追求 ,更有窘迫 ;思想大师来自于苦难和冷清 ;思想让人成为人     

Estimation of dependence between paired correlated failure times in the presence of covariate measurement error

Summary. In many biomedical studies, covariates are subject to measurement error. Although it is well known that the regression coefficients estimators can be substantially biased if the measurement error is not accommodated, there has been little study of the effect of covariate measurement error on the estimation of the dependence between bivariate failure times. We show that the dependence parameter estimator in the Clayton–Oakes model can be considerably biased if the measurement error in the covariate is not accommodated. In contrast with the typical bias towards the null for marginal regression coefficients, the dependence parameter can be biased in either direction. We introduce a bias reduction technique for the bivariate survival function in copula models while assuming an additive measurement error model and replicated measurement for the covariates, and we study the large and small sample properties of the dependence parameter estimator proposed.     

A Multivariate Model for Repeated Failure Time Measurements

A parametric multivariate failure time distribution is derived from a frailty-type model with a particular frailty distribution. It covers as special cases certain distributions which have been used for multivariate survival data in recent years. Some properties of the distribution are derived: its marginal and conditional distributions lie within the parametric family, and association between the component variates can be positive or, to a limited extent, negative. The simple closed form of the survivor function is useful for right-censored data, as occur commonly in survival analysis, and for calculating uniform residuals. Also featured is the distribution of ratios of paired failure times. The model is applied to data from the literature     

生存理性如何影响农户的差别化生产

在食品安全威胁下,农户重新定义了“为自家生产”和“为市场生产”的差别化生产行为。基于经济理性行为假设认为农户存在以确保自家食品安全为动机的生存理性。根据在5省区收集的827份农村入户调研数据,对农户差别化生产行为进行具体分析,描述了差别化生产行为总体特征,并测量农户食品安全自我保护意识、威胁感知程度和信息渠道等因素。运用Probit模型验证了命题：以食品安全自我保护意识为特征的生存理性,支配了农户为确保自家消费安全而进行的差别化生产。     

资源型城市人口生存与发展问题分析及对策选择

在资源型城市所面临的诸多问题中,人口生存与发展问题是最基本的问题。资源型城市的失业率高,社会保障程度低,教育落后,生态环境污染严重,这些问题直接影响着社会的稳定。这些问题的出现,既与国家过去资源开发的政策有关,也与资源型城市中人口自身的原因有关。因此,要解决这些问题,资源型城市自身要努力转型,同时也离不开国家的救援机制。     

成熟期医药风险投资项目评价实证研究

作为关系国计民生的特殊产业--医药产业一直是风险投资重要领域,但是针对性相关研究却没有得到应有重视,而专注于医药风险投资重要阶段的成熟期医药风险投资的相关研究更是空白.现有风险投资文献多比较原则,少数套用有关方法、模型改头换面,缺乏实际应用价值.鉴于成熟期医药风险投资特点,本文通过问卷调查和数理统计方法从实证角度揭示成熟期医药风险投资各风险评价指标及重要性和相互关系.通过相关性分析发现成熟期医药风险投资协同效应评价中的负相关性现象.     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

A Bayesian Analysis of Abundance,Trend, and Population Viability for Harbor Seals in Iliamna Lake,Alaska

Harbor seals in Iliamna Lake, Alaska, are a small, isolated population, and one of only two freshwater populations of harbor seals in the world, yet little is known about their abundance or risk for extinction. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate abundance and trend of this population. Observational models were developed from aerial survey and harvest data, and they included effects for time of year and time of day on survey counts. Underlying models of abundance and trend were based on a Leslie matrix model that used prior information on vital rates from the literature. We developed three scenarios for variability in the priors and used them as part of a sensitivity analysis. The models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The population production rate implied by the vital rate estimates was about 5% per year, very similar to the average annual harvest rate. After a period of growth in the 1980s, the population appears to be relatively stable at around 400 individuals. A population viability analysis assessing the risk of quasi‐extinction, defined as any reduction to 50 animals or below in the next 100 years, ranged from 1% to 3%, depending on the prior scenario. Although this is moderately low risk, it does not include genetic or catastrophic environmental events, which may have occurred to the population in the past, so our results should be applied cautiously.