Bayesian analysis of outlier problems using divergence measures

A Bayesian approach is presented for detecting influential observations using general divergence measures on the posterior distributions. A sampling-based approach using a Gibbs or Metropolis-within-Gibbs method is used to compute the posterior divergence measures. Four specific measures are proposed, which convey the effects of a single observation or covariate on the posterior. The technique is applied to a generalized linear model with binary response data, an overdispersed model and a nonlinear model. An asymptotic approximation using Laplace method to obtain the posterior divergence is also briefly discussed.     

Two point priors and Γ-minimax estimating in families of uniform distributions

It is shown that when a parameter lying in a sufficiently small interval is to be estimated in a family of uniform distributions, a two point prior is least favourable under squared error loss. The unique Bayes estimator with respect to this prior is minimax. The Γ-minimax estimator is derived for sets Γ of priors consisting of all priors that give fixed probabilities to two specified subintervals of the parameter space if a two point prior is least favourable in Γ.     

理查兹的作者心理经验论

理查兹(1893—1981)是本世纪初英国著名的文学批评家。本文旨在考查他的作者心理经验论。理查兹倡导了后来美国的新批评派所极力推崇的“细读”式批评。他认为作品只不过是读者进入作者心灵的窗口。由于读者文学水准的高低不一,所以,读者的看法不能作为评价文学的标准。理查兹把作者的心理经验看成是衡量读者“期待视野”的标尺。理查兹对绝对标准的关注,使其理论带有明显的客观主义和实证主义的色彩;同时他对心理因素的兴趣也使他的理论具有人文主义和心理主义的内涵。     

A probablistic analysis for an optimal screening problem

Summary We consider a lotL formed byN apparently similar unitsW ₁,…,W _N, where each of theW _i may come from one of two different populationsP ₁ andP ₂;T ₁,…,T _N denote the corresponding lifetimes. The units fromP _i undergo a failure of kindi and their survival function isS _i (t). We assume that the failure rate function are known and that the units fromP ₁ are ?substandard?: λ ₁ (t)≥λ ₂ (t), ∀t≥0. We want to putW ₁,…,W _N under a pre-operational test (burn-in test) in order to eliminate at least a great part of the substandard units and we face the problem of obtaining a rule for stopping the test under the assumption that, with the failure of a unit, it is possible to recognize the population from which the unit comes. Such a problem will be formalized as an optimal stopping problem for a suitably defined Markov process. Our study shall evidentiate some fundamental aspects of the problem and the role of the prior distribution of the (random) numberM ₀ of those units inL coming fromP ₁ (substandard). The latter distribution has a great influence on the form of the solution. This research was supported by the C.N.R. Project ?Statistica Bayesiana e Simulazione in Affidalità e Modellistica Biologica?.     

Mental health program evaluation: Where you start?

Seduced by the elegance, sophistication and jargon characteristic of new developments in applied research, practicing evaluators are in danger of becoming distracted from achievement of their evaluative goal: that of providing timely, reliable and useful data to program management to facilitate rational data-based decision-making. To avoid such seduction, the author advocates adaptation of simple, inexpensive and efficient evaluative methods tailored to organizational needs and presentation of findings in language readily understood by constituent groups. Likewise, insistance by evaluators upon maintenance of a strict role boundary — that is, limiting role functioning exclusively to those tasks considered evaluation — may be dysfunctional. Rather than detract from accomplishment of his goals, the author maintains that such participation allows development of skills, insights and staff relationships which enhance the evaluator's effective functioning within the organizational context and contribute to organizational acceptance and use of his evaluative results.     

Behavioral evaluation of a state program of deinstitutionalization of the developmentally disabled

The purpose of this study was to evaluate one phase of a statewide program of deinstitutionalizing developmentally disabled individuals. Forty adults who had spent a minimum of six months in community placements were evaluated with respect to changes in behavior associated with movement out of state institutions and into community settings such as group homes and day activity centers. Pre- and post-deinstitutionalization measures were taken with the Behavior Development Survey. Post-deinstitutionalization measures on Cataldo and Risley's Resident Activity Manifest were compared to the same measures obtained on 159 developmentally disabled individuals scheduled for deinstitutionalization. A consistent pattern of positive changes on both instruments favored deinstitutionalization, but changes could not be unequivocally attributed to movement out of the institutions per se.     

从俞平伯晚年自省和“李希凡自述”想到的(之三)——回应俞平伯晚年的红学研究反思

俞平伯先生晚年的红学自省是真实可信的,应引起红学界高度重视,他的红学研究思想的重大变化同1954年那场对他的批评有内在的因果关系。对当年那场"批俞评红"不能全盘否定,不能只讲负面问题,全面否定其正确性和必要性。现在红学研究的一些乱象正是当年批判过了的错误研究思想、研究方法的泛滥。这种泛滥同对当年的全盘否定不无关系。     

永泰县城区空气中主要污染物类别及其影响因素分析

经监测,永泰县城区大气污染物主要为PMl0、PM2.5、O3,影响O3的因素主要有汽车尾气排放、日照,PMl0、PM2.5浓度大小除与车流量、烟花爆竹燃放相关外,还与降水、风速等气象因素密切关联。针对这些影响因素,该文提出了相应的防治措施。     

美国联邦官僚系统的自主性和政治控制

在美国的多元政治体制下,其联邦官僚系统保持着一定程度的自主性。与之同时,又接受着来自国会、总统和社会利益集团等多种政治主体的影响和控制,形成"一仆二主"乃至"一仆多主"的现象。基于美国的民主原则,美国联邦官僚系统必须回应来自政治系统的意愿和利益要求,接受其监督,同时凭借自身的专业技术能力及其他职业性资源,又保持着相对独立性,呈现出美国政治中特有的政治行政关系结构和特征。